Israel Sets Ramadan Deadline for Assault on Gazan City Rafah

Palestinian women mourn the death of relatives in an Israeli air strike in Gaza's Deir al-Balah. AFP
Palestinian women mourn the death of relatives in an Israeli air strike in Gaza's Deir al-Balah. AFP
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Israel Sets Ramadan Deadline for Assault on Gazan City Rafah

Palestinian women mourn the death of relatives in an Israeli air strike in Gaza's Deir al-Balah. AFP
Palestinian women mourn the death of relatives in an Israeli air strike in Gaza's Deir al-Balah. AFP

Israel has threatened to invade Gaza's Rafah by the start of Ramadan if Hamas does not return the remaining hostages by then, despite international pressure to protect Palestinian civilians sheltering in the southern city.
With prospects for truce talks dimmed, the United States and other governments, as well as the United Nations, have issued increasingly urgent appeals to Israel to call off its planned offensive on Rafah, AFP said on Monday.
The Israeli government says the city on the Egypt border is the last remaining stronghold in Gaza of the Palestinian group Hamas.
But it is also where three-quarters of the displaced Palestinian population has fled, taking shelter in sprawling tent encampments without access to adequate food, water or medicine.
"The world must know, and Hamas leaders must know —- if by Ramadan our hostages are not home, the fighting will continue everywhere, including the Rafah area," Benny Gantz, a retired military chief of staff, told a conference of American Jewish leaders in Jerusalem on Sunday.
"Hamas has a choice. They can surrender, release the hostages and the civilians of Gaza can celebrate the feast of Ramadan," added Gantz, a member of the three-person war cabinet.
Ramadan, the Muslim holy month, is expected to begin around March 10.
But where Palestinians can go after four months of war have flattened vast swathes of the Strip remains unclear.
"There's no safe place. Even the hospital is not safe," Ahmad Mohammed Aburizq told AFP from the morgue of a Rafah hospital where mourners gathered around a loved one wrapped in a white body bag.
"That's my cousin -- he was martyred in Al-Mawasi, in the 'safe area'. And my mother was martyred the day before."
'Total victory'
For weeks, international mediators have sought to broker a truce-for-hostages deal that would pause fighting for six weeks.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has played down the possibility of an impending breakthrough, calling Hamas's demands "delusional".
Even if a deal is struck, he insists the campaign to eliminate Hamas from Gaza will not be completed until clearing Rafah.
"Deal or no deal, we have to finish the job to get total victory," he said at the Jerusalem conference on Sunday.
With international pressure piling on Israel, the UN's top court will open a week of hearings from Monday examining the legal consequences of the country's 57-year occupation of Palestinian territories.
The hearings, requested by the UN General Assembly, are separate from South Africa's high-profile case alleging Israel is committing genocide in its current Gaza offensive.
At the UN's Security Council, the United States signaled it would veto the latest UN draft resolution seeking an immediate ceasefire should it come to a vote this week.
Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield said the resolution would jeopardize the ongoing truce talks, as well as the broader aim of "an enduring resolution of hostilities".
Western governments have increasingly pushed for unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state to be part of that wider peace process, but Israel's government on Sunday unanimously adopted a declaration rejecting such recognition
"After the terrible massacre of October 7, there can be no greater reward for terrorism than that and it will prevent any future peace settlement," Netanyahu said.
Hamas has meanwhile threatened to suspend its involvement in any ceasefire negotiations unless relief supplies reach Gaza's north, where aid agencies have warned of looming famine.
'Crying from hunger'
On Sunday morning, dozens of Israelis blocked Gaza-bound aid trucks from entering through the Nitzana crossing with Egypt, AFP reporters and the Palestinian Red Crescent Society said.
Gazans say they are going so hungry they are grinding animal feed into flour.
"My children are starving, they wake up crying from hunger. Where do I get food for them?" a northern Gazan woman told AFP.
The UN agency for Palestinian refugees said nearly three in four people are drinking contaminated water.
"The speed of deterioration in Gaza is unprecedented," it said.
After a week-long siege, the largest hospital still functional in Gaza is no longer operational, according to the World Health Organization.
At least 20 of the 200 patients still at the Nasser Hospital urgently require relocation to other facilities, WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said, adding that his organization "was not permitted to enter" the site.
Seven patients, including a child, have died there since Friday due to power cuts, and "70 medical staff including intensive care doctors" have been arrested, according to the Hamas-run health ministry.
Israeli military spokesman Richard Hecht said diesel and oxygen supplies had been delivered on Saturday and a temporary generator was running.
Israeli troops in Khan Yunis were still operating around the hospital on Sunday after the military said it had "located additional weapons".
Israel has concentrated its military operations in Khan Yunis, just a few kilometers from Rafah and the hometown of Hamas's Gaza leader Yahya Sinwar, who is accused of orchestrating the October 7 attack.
The Hamas assault that launched the war killed about 1,160 people in Israel, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally of Israeli figures.
Israel's retaliatory campaign in Gaza has killed at least 28,985 people, mostly women and children, according to the territory's health ministry.



Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
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Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time, AFP reported.

The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

- 'A good estimate' -

The researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

"Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed," Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached "a good estimate" for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain's Open University, told AFP there was "inevitably a lot of uncertainty" when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was "admirable" that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

"Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

- 'Criticism' expected from both sides -

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems -- such as a heart attack -- could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection "might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease" in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that "criticism is going to come from different sides" about the new research.

She spoke out against the "obsession" of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that "we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”