Maliki Ready to Reach Understanding with Sadr over Iraq Elections

The Coordination Framework holds a meeting attended by PM Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. (INA file photo)
The Coordination Framework holds a meeting attended by PM Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. (INA file photo)
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Maliki Ready to Reach Understanding with Sadr over Iraq Elections

The Coordination Framework holds a meeting attended by PM Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. (INA file photo)
The Coordination Framework holds a meeting attended by PM Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. (INA file photo)

Iraqi former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has sent “secret messages” to head of the Sadrist movement influential cleric Moqtada al-Sadr about the possibility of him returning to political life through the next parliamentary elections, five Shiite sources told Asharq Al-Awsat.

The messages, which were delivered by mediators, also did not rule out the possibility of holding early elections if necessary.

The sources said Maliki met over the past two weeks figures close to Sadr to explain his position on the elections and the amendments he is seeking over the electoral law.

Asharq Al-Awsat had reported on Saturday that Maliki was drafting a new law with amendments that would lower the chances of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani of winning a sizable number of seats at the legislature.

The sources added that the amendments would “set the balances within the Coordination Framework” alliance in advance to prevent one single Shiite ally from reaping the largest number of seats.

Early elections?

The five sources said Maliki was not the only Shiite figure trying to contact Sadr. Rather, figures such as Ammar al-Hakim and Hadi al-Ameri had asked Maliki to inquire about the cleric’s plans to return to political life.

At the moment, mediators are delivering the messages between the Framework and Sadrist movement about the proposed amendments.

They were surprised to learn that Maliki and Sadr’s positions on the amendments “may be almost aligned,” stated the sources.

Maliki had in recent days been mulling the benefits or not of holding early elections, saying he was open to discussing the issue with the Sadrists.

A source from the Sadrist movement said: “Maliki is certain Sadr will take part in the next elections. He implied to the mediators that he was prepared to reach an understanding with the Sadrists over the best version of the electoral law that would pave the way for Sadr’s strong return to the political scene.”

Three sources said Maliki has yet to receive a “frank and direct response from Sadr”, but the mediators said the proposed amendments “may be acceptable.”

Sadr has yet to comment on any of the information about the Framework’s preparations for the elections.

His associates refused to comment to Asharq Al-Awsat on whether messages were indeed exchanged between him and the Framework.

One associate said: “Sadr is busy these days with collecting aid to the Palestinians in Gaza.”

The cleric had on Monday launched a donation campaign to help the people of Gaza.

Political activist in the Sadrist movement Issam Hussein ruled out the possibility of a potential mediation with Sadr.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Framework was trying to drag the movement into a heated rivalry with its own competing parties.

The Framework is a coalition of Shiite groups that are aligned with Iran. Their alliance helped secure Sudani’s appointment as prime minister.

Hussein added that the Framework is expecting Sudani to win several seats in the next elections, which could mark the beginning of the end of the coalition in its current form.

The Framework is expecting the PM to secure around 200,000 votes in Baghdad, which according to the current law, will win him 15 seats. The proposed amendments, however, would see those votes reduced to one seat. This is at the heart of the dispute within the Framework.

Asharq Al-Awsat had previously reported that the Framework believes that Sudani may win 60 seats at the new parliament even though he didn’t run in local elections.

Another source told Asharq Al-Awsat that Maliki was preparing for the worst-case scenario after he realized that even with the absence of his fiercest rival - Sadr - from the political scene, he was still unable to secure his goals.

It is too soon to say whether Maliki’s time with the Framework is coming to an end, it added.

‘Deepest concern’

The Framework has for weeks been speculating whether a new coalition would be formed. It would bring together Sudani and powerful conservative Shiite figures that are backed by the Asaib Ahl al-Haq movement headed by Qais Khazali.

Maliki believes that an alliance between Sudani and Khazali would mean the end of the Framework, which would have dire consequences, said two sources.

Coordination between Sudani and Khazali would mean the PM would emerge as the most powerful figure after the elections, said another source.

Confronted with these possibilities, Maliki is encouraging the Sadrists to return to politics and prevent the formation of powerful Shiite alliance that “could slip out of his control,” it went on to say.

An alliance between Sudani and Khazali “worries Maliki deeply, which is why he is seeking to counterbalance it by teaming up with Sadr.”

Another source explained that Maliki likely shares the Iranian view that keeping Sadr isolated only deepens the divisions between the Shiites that could spiral into unrest.



Half of Yemen’s Population Face Mounting Risks from Climate Change

Al-Garehi Al-Gharbi camp in the Abs district of north-west Yemen. (Norwegian Refugee Council)
Al-Garehi Al-Gharbi camp in the Abs district of north-west Yemen. (Norwegian Refugee Council)
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Half of Yemen’s Population Face Mounting Risks from Climate Change

Al-Garehi Al-Gharbi camp in the Abs district of north-west Yemen. (Norwegian Refugee Council)
Al-Garehi Al-Gharbi camp in the Abs district of north-west Yemen. (Norwegian Refugee Council)

Already suffering from a prolonged conflict as a result of the Houthi coup against the legitimate authority, Yemen is facing mounting risks brought on by climate change, the World Bank warned on Thursday.
Many populations are facing threats from climate change, such as extreme heat, drought, and floods, the WB said in its newly released Yemen Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR).
Stephane Guimbert, World Bank Country Director for Egypt, Yemen and Djibouti said that Yemen is facing an unprecedented convergence of crises — conflict, climate change, and poverty.
He called for immediate and decisive action on climate resilience, a matter of survival for millions of Yemenis.
“By investing in water security, climate-smart agriculture, and renewable energy, Yemen can safeguard human capital, build resilience and lay the foundations for a path to sustainable recovery,” he said.
The WB report said half of Yemenis are already exposed to at least one climate hazard — extreme heat, drought, or flooding — with compounding effects on food insecurity and poverty.
These risks, it showed, are expected to intensify without immediate action and Yemen’s annual GDP could decline by an average of 3.9% by 2040 under pessimistic climate scenarios, largely due to decreased agricultural productivity and infrastructure damage.
Navigating Challenges
Despite these challenges, the CCDR identifies strategic opportunities to strengthen resilience, improve food and water security, and unlock sustainable growth, the WB report noted.
For example, it said, targeted investments in water storage and groundwater management, coupled with adaptive agriculture techniques could lead to productivity gains of up to 13.5% in crop production under optimistic climate scenarios for the period of 2041 to 2050.
The report also spoke about risks to the fisheries sector, considered as a critical source of livelihood for many Yemenis.
Its projections indicate a potential decline of up to 23% in fish stocks due to rising sea temperatures and altered marine ecosystems.

The WB report also said that climate change exacerbates existing health challenges in Yemen, leading to increased healthcare costs and strain on already fragile health systems.
“It is projected that climate-related health issues could cost the country over $5 billion in excess health costs by 2050,” it noted.
“Addressing these challenges requires integrating climate resilience into public health planning, with a focus on vulnerable groups such as women and children.”
Concerning infrastructure, the report said urban areas and critical infrastructure are especially vulnerable, and without adaptation measures, economic shocks will disproportionately affect already fragile communities.
As for the private sector, it has a critical role to play in addressing Yemen’s pressing development challenges, said Khawaja Aftab Ahmed, IFC’s Regional Director for the Middle East.
“Harnessing its potential through innovative financing mechanisms and guarantee instruments and creating a conducive investment climate can help mobilize the climate-focused funding the country urgently needs to build a greener and more resilient future,” he said.
The WB report also said that Yemen also has immense potential for renewable energy, which could serve as a key component of its climate response and recovery.
It showed that harnessing renewable energy resources not only offers a pathway to reduce reliance on fossil fuels but also enables the creation of a more resilient power infrastructure.
“This will be essential in supporting vital services such as healthcare, water supply, and food distribution, particularly in conflict-affected areas,” it said.
Global Coordination
The World Bank highlighted the significant commitments and coordination from the international community to support Yemen in coping with climate shocks and building broader resilience.
It said securing sustainable peace will be required to unlock the financing and take the action needed to build long-term resilience to climate change.
The CCDR then underscored the importance of flexible, risk-informed decision-making to adapt climate actions to Yemen's uncertain political landscape.
Under a “Peace and Prosperity” scenario, it said, a higher level of adaptation can be implemented, yielding greater economic and social benefits.
Yemeni Minister of Water and Environment, Tawfiq Al-Sharjabi, stressed the importance of integrating climate action into development strategies and adapting to climate fluctuations.
The minister was speaking at a special session to discuss the WB report on the sidelines of the 29th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29) held in Baku, Azerbaijan.
He said the report represents a significant contribution for Yemen in addressing climate change and will facilitate access to various climate financing options amid the structural and technical fragility faced by institutions due to the war.
The report, Al-Sharjabi added, aligns closely with Yemen's urgent priorities, particularly in the areas of water and food security, enhancing livelihoods, and promoting area-based climate adaptation approaches.