Maliki Ready to Reach Understanding with Sadr over Iraq Elections

The Coordination Framework holds a meeting attended by PM Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. (INA file photo)
The Coordination Framework holds a meeting attended by PM Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. (INA file photo)
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Maliki Ready to Reach Understanding with Sadr over Iraq Elections

The Coordination Framework holds a meeting attended by PM Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. (INA file photo)
The Coordination Framework holds a meeting attended by PM Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. (INA file photo)

Iraqi former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has sent “secret messages” to head of the Sadrist movement influential cleric Moqtada al-Sadr about the possibility of him returning to political life through the next parliamentary elections, five Shiite sources told Asharq Al-Awsat.

The messages, which were delivered by mediators, also did not rule out the possibility of holding early elections if necessary.

The sources said Maliki met over the past two weeks figures close to Sadr to explain his position on the elections and the amendments he is seeking over the electoral law.

Asharq Al-Awsat had reported on Saturday that Maliki was drafting a new law with amendments that would lower the chances of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani of winning a sizable number of seats at the legislature.

The sources added that the amendments would “set the balances within the Coordination Framework” alliance in advance to prevent one single Shiite ally from reaping the largest number of seats.

Early elections?

The five sources said Maliki was not the only Shiite figure trying to contact Sadr. Rather, figures such as Ammar al-Hakim and Hadi al-Ameri had asked Maliki to inquire about the cleric’s plans to return to political life.

At the moment, mediators are delivering the messages between the Framework and Sadrist movement about the proposed amendments.

They were surprised to learn that Maliki and Sadr’s positions on the amendments “may be almost aligned,” stated the sources.

Maliki had in recent days been mulling the benefits or not of holding early elections, saying he was open to discussing the issue with the Sadrists.

A source from the Sadrist movement said: “Maliki is certain Sadr will take part in the next elections. He implied to the mediators that he was prepared to reach an understanding with the Sadrists over the best version of the electoral law that would pave the way for Sadr’s strong return to the political scene.”

Three sources said Maliki has yet to receive a “frank and direct response from Sadr”, but the mediators said the proposed amendments “may be acceptable.”

Sadr has yet to comment on any of the information about the Framework’s preparations for the elections.

His associates refused to comment to Asharq Al-Awsat on whether messages were indeed exchanged between him and the Framework.

One associate said: “Sadr is busy these days with collecting aid to the Palestinians in Gaza.”

The cleric had on Monday launched a donation campaign to help the people of Gaza.

Political activist in the Sadrist movement Issam Hussein ruled out the possibility of a potential mediation with Sadr.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Framework was trying to drag the movement into a heated rivalry with its own competing parties.

The Framework is a coalition of Shiite groups that are aligned with Iran. Their alliance helped secure Sudani’s appointment as prime minister.

Hussein added that the Framework is expecting Sudani to win several seats in the next elections, which could mark the beginning of the end of the coalition in its current form.

The Framework is expecting the PM to secure around 200,000 votes in Baghdad, which according to the current law, will win him 15 seats. The proposed amendments, however, would see those votes reduced to one seat. This is at the heart of the dispute within the Framework.

Asharq Al-Awsat had previously reported that the Framework believes that Sudani may win 60 seats at the new parliament even though he didn’t run in local elections.

Another source told Asharq Al-Awsat that Maliki was preparing for the worst-case scenario after he realized that even with the absence of his fiercest rival - Sadr - from the political scene, he was still unable to secure his goals.

It is too soon to say whether Maliki’s time with the Framework is coming to an end, it added.

‘Deepest concern’

The Framework has for weeks been speculating whether a new coalition would be formed. It would bring together Sudani and powerful conservative Shiite figures that are backed by the Asaib Ahl al-Haq movement headed by Qais Khazali.

Maliki believes that an alliance between Sudani and Khazali would mean the end of the Framework, which would have dire consequences, said two sources.

Coordination between Sudani and Khazali would mean the PM would emerge as the most powerful figure after the elections, said another source.

Confronted with these possibilities, Maliki is encouraging the Sadrists to return to politics and prevent the formation of powerful Shiite alliance that “could slip out of his control,” it went on to say.

An alliance between Sudani and Khazali “worries Maliki deeply, which is why he is seeking to counterbalance it by teaming up with Sadr.”

Another source explained that Maliki likely shares the Iranian view that keeping Sadr isolated only deepens the divisions between the Shiites that could spiral into unrest.



Israel Pounds Central Beirut, Suburbs after Major Evacuation Warnings

A damaged building is pictured through the wreckage of a vehicle, in the aftermath of Israeli strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs, amid the ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, Lebanon November 26, 2024. REUTERS/Mohammed Yassin
A damaged building is pictured through the wreckage of a vehicle, in the aftermath of Israeli strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs, amid the ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, Lebanon November 26, 2024. REUTERS/Mohammed Yassin
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Israel Pounds Central Beirut, Suburbs after Major Evacuation Warnings

A damaged building is pictured through the wreckage of a vehicle, in the aftermath of Israeli strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs, amid the ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, Lebanon November 26, 2024. REUTERS/Mohammed Yassin
A damaged building is pictured through the wreckage of a vehicle, in the aftermath of Israeli strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs, amid the ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, Lebanon November 26, 2024. REUTERS/Mohammed Yassin

Israel mounted waves of pounding airstrikes in Beirut on Tuesday as its security cabinet discussed a ceasefire deal in Lebanon with its Hezbollah foes that could take effect as soon as Wednesday.

A senior Israeli official and Lebanese caretaker Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib appeared optimistic a deal could be reached, clearing the way for an end to a conflict that has killed thousands of people since it was ignited by the Gaza war last year.

Despite the possibility of an imminent diplomatic breakthrough, hostilities raged as Israel sharply ramped up its campaign of air strikes in Beirut and other parts of Lebanon, with health authorities reporting at least 18 killed.

Israeli warplanes launched repeated strikes across Beirut throughout Tuesday, mostly in the southern suburbs that are a stronghold for Iran-backed Hezbollah.

A single cluster of strikes in Beirut that Israel's military said included attacks on 20 targets in just 120 seconds killed at least seven people and injured 37, Lebanon's health ministry said.

Israel also gave advance notice for the first time of strikes in the central Beirut area, a significant escalation of its campaign in the capital that sparked panic among residents with some fleeing north.

Strikes also targeted Tyre, in the south, and Baalbek, in the east.

Israeli military spokesperson Avichay Adraee said the air force was conducting a "widespread attack" on Hezbollah targets across the city.

Hezbollah has kept up rocket fire into Israel and has previously said it would respond to attacks on central Beirut by firing rockets at Tel Aviv. Sirens sounded in northern Israel and the Israeli military said five projectiles were identified coming from Lebanon.

Hezbollah launched some 250 rockets on Sunday in one of its heaviest barrages yet. The northern Israeli city of Nahariya came under more rocket fire overnight.

‘Dangerous hours’

A Hezbollah parliament member in Lebanon, Hassan Fadlallah, said the country faced "dangerous, sensitive hours" during the wait for a possible ceasefire announcement.

With Israel's security cabinet meeting to discuss the deal, which a senior Israeli official had said was likely to be approved, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said he would speak on Tuesday evening at 8 pm (1800 GMT). A government official said the cabinet meeting had started.

Israeli approval of the deal would pave the way for a ceasefire declaration by US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron, four senior Lebanese sources told Reuters on Monday.

The ceasefire could come into effect on Wednesday morning, triggering a 60-day truce, a Western diplomat said.

However, there was no indication that a truce in Lebanon would hasten a ceasefire and hostage-release deal in devastated Gaza, where Israel is battling Palestinian group Hamas.

The agreement requires Israeli troops to withdraw from south Lebanon and Lebanon's army to deploy in the region, officials say. Hezbollah would end its armed presence along the border south of the Litani River.

Bou Habib said the Lebanese army would be ready to have at least 5,000 troops deployed in southern Lebanon as Israeli troops withdraw, and that the United States could play a role in rebuilding infrastructure destroyed by Israeli strikes.

Israel demands effective UN enforcement of an eventual ceasefire with Lebanon and will show "zero tolerance" toward any infraction, Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Tuesday.