Sudan’s Al-Fashir on Edge: Fear of Imminent Rapid Support Forces Assault

Fires engulf a livestock market in Al-Fashir, the capital of Sudan’s North Darfur state, as a result of previous battles (AFP)
Fires engulf a livestock market in Al-Fashir, the capital of Sudan’s North Darfur state, as a result of previous battles (AFP)
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Sudan’s Al-Fashir on Edge: Fear of Imminent Rapid Support Forces Assault

Fires engulf a livestock market in Al-Fashir, the capital of Sudan’s North Darfur state, as a result of previous battles (AFP)
Fires engulf a livestock market in Al-Fashir, the capital of Sudan’s North Darfur state, as a result of previous battles (AFP)

Al-Fashir, the capital of Sudan’s North Darfur, is drawing global attention as it faces a potential crisis. Reports suggest that the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), stationed around the city for months, are gathering troops for a possible assault.

This raises concerns about a humanitarian disaster, as Al-Fashir shelters many who are fleeing conflict.

Previously, Al-Fashir had stayed out of the regional conflict, forming a neutral force to protect the displaced. However, some factions joined the Sudanese army, sparking fighting nearby.

There are worries about tribal conflict spreading, especially since neighboring areas share similar tribes.

Global Concerns Rise Over Al-Fashir Crisis

The US has urged an immediate ceasefire in and around Al-Fashir, calling on both the army and the RSF to return to negotiations in Jeddah and end the year-long conflict.

Concerns over an imminent attack on Al-Fashir were voiced by Matthew Miller, a spokesperson for the US State Department, who demanded an immediate halt to assaults on the city.

The UN warned that the Rapid Support Forces have surrounded the city, indicating a potential assault. It highlighted the grave consequences an attack would have on civilians in an already famine-threatened area.

The UN's Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy for Sudan, Ramtane Lamamra, is working to ease tensions in Al-Fashir.

UN chief Antonio Guterres also reiterated his call for parties in Sudan to refrain from fighting in the Al-Fashir area.

Al-Fashir is a key aid center in Darfur, hosting many refugees. While the city itself has been spared from battles, nearby villages have faced clashes and shelling since mid-April.

RSF Talks about ‘Political Vendetta’

Imran Abdullah Hassan, an advisor to the RSF commander, rejected accusations on Thursday that his forces had burned villages in Al-Fashir, calling them politically driven.

He stated that his forces are ready to face justice if any wrongdoing against civilians is proven.

“These claims come from remnants of the former regime and political groups aiming to stir conflict,” said Hassan, adding that they failed to incite civil war and are now spreading false accusations of crimes against civilians in northern Darfur.

Amin al-Majzoub, a military expert, warns that the fighting in Sudan could worsen tensions in Al-Fashir and neighboring regions. He also fears this could prolong Sudan’s crisis, potentially allowing terrorist groups to enter the country.

According to al-Majzoub, the ongoing conflict in Sudan threatens the stability of neighboring countries.

“The military’s plan suggests they won’t abandon areas controlled by the RSF, which could lead allied armed groups to engage in wider conflict, whether in Khartoum, Al-Jazeera, or Darfur,” explained al-Majzoub.

“This could even jeopardize the 2020 Juba Peace Agreement if armed groups fragment and collapse,” he added.

Fierce Battle Looms

Sadiq Ali Hassan, head of the Darfur Lawyers Association, warns that if the war reaches Al-Fashir, it will be the most severe yet, with devastating consequences for all of Sudan.

He urged joint forces, including the army and armed groups, to work together to protect Darfur and Sudan.

However, Hassan noted that these forces have failed in their duties since the October 2021 coup, becoming divided along tribal and regional lines.

Hassan explained that the movements that signed the Juba Peace Agreement are watching the war cautiously to protect their own interests, ignoring the people of Darfur.

Despite declaring neutrality, some groups have joined either the army or the RSF, driven more by their own interests than by concern for Darfur.

Hassan also notes the existence of other armed local groups ready to defend against potential threats, along with the Sudan Liberation Army Movement led by Abdul Wahid al-Nur, which didn’t sign the peace agreement and stays neutral.

These groups are concentrated in and around Al-Fashir, and if war erupts there, it’ll be the most intense conflict among all ongoing battles in Sudan’s other cities and states.



Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
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Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time, AFP reported.

The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

- 'A good estimate' -

The researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

"Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed," Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached "a good estimate" for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain's Open University, told AFP there was "inevitably a lot of uncertainty" when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was "admirable" that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

"Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

- 'Criticism' expected from both sides -

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems -- such as a heart attack -- could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection "might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease" in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that "criticism is going to come from different sides" about the new research.

She spoke out against the "obsession" of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that "we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”