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Fears of Iranian Retaliation Weigh on Exhausted Syrians

A Druze Sheikh near a Syrian army position in Quneitra, Golan Heights, on July 30 (AP)
A Druze Sheikh near a Syrian army position in Quneitra, Golan Heights, on July 30 (AP)
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Fears of Iranian Retaliation Weigh on Exhausted Syrians

A Druze Sheikh near a Syrian army position in Quneitra, Golan Heights, on July 30 (AP)
A Druze Sheikh near a Syrian army position in Quneitra, Golan Heights, on July 30 (AP)

Damascus remains unclear about its official stance on a possible Iranian retaliation against Israel following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
State media has avoided discussing the potential fallout, even though there is speculation that Iran might use Syrian airspace and territory for any response.
Syrian analysts told Asharq Al-Awsat that Tehran seems to be overstating its plans for retaliation, especially compared to its actions in April when it launched drones and missiles after senior military leaders were killed in a strike on its consulate in Damascus.
They suggest that Iran is looking to strengthen its negotiating position with Washington and the international community and is unlikely to risk a major conflict that could result in significant losses, particularly to its nuclear program.
The analysts also noted that Iran might rely on its regional allies in Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen for its response.
Damascus, worn out from years of conflict, understands this but feels unable to either distance itself publicly or fully commit to any actions, except reluctantly.
There are concerns that Iran could use southern Syria as a base for retaliation, which might disrupt ceasefire agreements and reignite conflict with Israel. Analysts also warn that any decision Damascus makes could have serious consequences.
Fears of an imminent Iranian response are causing Syrian markets to freeze, with many people anxiously waiting for news.
Journalists in Damascus are working late, expecting any moment to see the start of a potential conflict that could push Syria back to conditions from a decade ago.
In border areas near Iraq and Lebanon, people are scared of being affected by an Iranian strike on Israel.
In western Homs, where the Iran-aligned Hezbollah group is active, locals say that “Iranians and Hezbollah are secretly moving into civilian areas, only becoming known when Israel targets them.”

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Syria Extends the Deadline for a Probe into Coastal Unrest

A man takes a picture with his mobile phone as people gather to commemorate the seventh anniversary of the chemical attack for the first time after the fall of the Assad government in the town of Douma, in the eastern Ghouta region, near the Syrian capital Damascus, Syria, Monday, April 7, 2025. (AP)
A man takes a picture with his mobile phone as people gather to commemorate the seventh anniversary of the chemical attack for the first time after the fall of the Assad government in the town of Douma, in the eastern Ghouta region, near the Syrian capital Damascus, Syria, Monday, April 7, 2025. (AP)
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Syria Extends the Deadline for a Probe into Coastal Unrest

A man takes a picture with his mobile phone as people gather to commemorate the seventh anniversary of the chemical attack for the first time after the fall of the Assad government in the town of Douma, in the eastern Ghouta region, near the Syrian capital Damascus, Syria, Monday, April 7, 2025. (AP)
A man takes a picture with his mobile phone as people gather to commemorate the seventh anniversary of the chemical attack for the first time after the fall of the Assad government in the town of Douma, in the eastern Ghouta region, near the Syrian capital Damascus, Syria, Monday, April 7, 2025. (AP)

Syria’s presidency announced on Friday that it would extend a probe into the killings of Alawite civilians in coastal areas that left scores dead after clashes between government forces and armed groups loyal to former President Bashar al-Assad spiraled into sectarian revenge attacks.

The violence erupted on March 6 after Assad loyalists ambushed patrols of the new government, prompting armed groups to launch coordinated assaults on Latakia, Baniyas, and other coastal areas.

The violence brought fear of a renewed civil war and threatened to open an endless cycle of vengeance, driving thousands of Alawites to flee their homes, with an estimated 30,000 seeking refuge in northern Lebanon.

On March 9, interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa formed a fact-finding committee and gave it 30 days to report its findings and identify perpetrators. In a decree published late Thursday, Sharaa said the committee had requested more time and was granted a three-month non-renewable extension.

The committee’s spokesperson, Yasser Farhan, said in a statement on Friday that the committee has recorded 41 sites where killings took place, each forming the basis for a separate case and requiring more time to gather evidence. He said some areas remained inaccessible due to time constraints, but that residents had cooperated, despite threats from pro-Assad remnants.

In a report published on April 3, Amnesty International said its probe into the killings concluded that at least 32 of more than 100 people killed in the town of Baniyas were deliberately targeted on sectarian grounds — a potential war crime.

The rights organization welcomed the committee’s formation but stressed it must be independent, properly resourced, and granted full access to burial sites and witnesses to conduct a credible investigation. It also said the committee should be granted “adequate time to complete the investigation.”