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Fears of Iranian Retaliation Weigh on Exhausted Syrians

A Druze Sheikh near a Syrian army position in Quneitra, Golan Heights, on July 30 (AP)
A Druze Sheikh near a Syrian army position in Quneitra, Golan Heights, on July 30 (AP)
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Fears of Iranian Retaliation Weigh on Exhausted Syrians

A Druze Sheikh near a Syrian army position in Quneitra, Golan Heights, on July 30 (AP)
A Druze Sheikh near a Syrian army position in Quneitra, Golan Heights, on July 30 (AP)

Damascus remains unclear about its official stance on a possible Iranian retaliation against Israel following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
State media has avoided discussing the potential fallout, even though there is speculation that Iran might use Syrian airspace and territory for any response.
Syrian analysts told Asharq Al-Awsat that Tehran seems to be overstating its plans for retaliation, especially compared to its actions in April when it launched drones and missiles after senior military leaders were killed in a strike on its consulate in Damascus.
They suggest that Iran is looking to strengthen its negotiating position with Washington and the international community and is unlikely to risk a major conflict that could result in significant losses, particularly to its nuclear program.
The analysts also noted that Iran might rely on its regional allies in Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen for its response.
Damascus, worn out from years of conflict, understands this but feels unable to either distance itself publicly or fully commit to any actions, except reluctantly.
There are concerns that Iran could use southern Syria as a base for retaliation, which might disrupt ceasefire agreements and reignite conflict with Israel. Analysts also warn that any decision Damascus makes could have serious consequences.
Fears of an imminent Iranian response are causing Syrian markets to freeze, with many people anxiously waiting for news.
Journalists in Damascus are working late, expecting any moment to see the start of a potential conflict that could push Syria back to conditions from a decade ago.
In border areas near Iraq and Lebanon, people are scared of being affected by an Iranian strike on Israel.
In western Homs, where the Iran-aligned Hezbollah group is active, locals say that “Iranians and Hezbollah are secretly moving into civilian areas, only becoming known when Israel targets them.”

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US Opens Diplomatic Track to Revise Lebanon-Israel Ceasefire Deal

07 July 2025, Lebanon, Beirut: Lebanese President Joseph Aoun shakes hands with Special Envoy to Syria Thomas Barrack ahead of their meeting in the presence of US Ambassador to Lebanon Lisa Johnson, in Beirut. Photo: Lebanese Presidency Office Apai/APA Images via ZUMA Press Wire/dpa
07 July 2025, Lebanon, Beirut: Lebanese President Joseph Aoun shakes hands with Special Envoy to Syria Thomas Barrack ahead of their meeting in the presence of US Ambassador to Lebanon Lisa Johnson, in Beirut. Photo: Lebanese Presidency Office Apai/APA Images via ZUMA Press Wire/dpa
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US Opens Diplomatic Track to Revise Lebanon-Israel Ceasefire Deal

07 July 2025, Lebanon, Beirut: Lebanese President Joseph Aoun shakes hands with Special Envoy to Syria Thomas Barrack ahead of their meeting in the presence of US Ambassador to Lebanon Lisa Johnson, in Beirut. Photo: Lebanese Presidency Office Apai/APA Images via ZUMA Press Wire/dpa
07 July 2025, Lebanon, Beirut: Lebanese President Joseph Aoun shakes hands with Special Envoy to Syria Thomas Barrack ahead of their meeting in the presence of US Ambassador to Lebanon Lisa Johnson, in Beirut. Photo: Lebanese Presidency Office Apai/APA Images via ZUMA Press Wire/dpa

A high-stakes visit by US envoy Tom Barrack to Beirut has opened a “diplomatic window” to de-escalate tensions along the Israel-Lebanon border, as Lebanese officials formally submitted a response to a US proposal aimed at ending hostilities – one that includes a path toward disarming Hezbollah.

Barrack’s arrival followed a spike in Israeli military activity that many in Lebanon interpreted as a warning: either accept the US-brokered framework or face the risk of wider conflict.

Lebanese officials told Asharq al-Awsat that Barrack praised Beirut’s “measured and thoughtful” response and plans to study it carefully before relaying his feedback through the US Embassy in Beirut within days. He may return to Lebanon within two weeks if progress continues as expected.

The official response, presented in the name of President Michel Aoun, Speaker Nabih Berri and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, did not include Hezbollah’s stance.

The group reportedly abstained from joining the presidential committee tasked with drafting the reply.

Still, Berri later submitted separate comments on behalf of the Shiite political alliance that includes his Amal Movement and Hezbollah.

A source close to Berri said the speaker emphasized the need for a “firm and verifiable ceasefire commitment from Israel before any further discussions.”

US Seeks to Patch Ceasefire Gaps

Speaking to reporters in Beirut, Barrack acknowledged that the ceasefire agreement, which paused cross-border fighting in November, lacked strong enforcement mechanisms.

There was no US guarantor in that deal, he said, suggesting that the current talks aim to close those loopholes.

Salam echoed the sentiment, saying the American envoy brought with him “new arrangements to halt hostilities.”

Barrack, who also serves as the US Ambassador to Türkiye and special envoy on Syria, met with Aoun alongside the US ambassador to Lebanon and other officials.

Following the 90-minute meeting, the presidency issued a statement saying Barrack had received “Lebanon’s comprehensive ideas for a solution.”

“Lebanon Must Seize the Moment”

In remarks to journalists, Barrack urged Lebanon to seize what he called a fleeting opportunity for peace and reconstruction.

“What the government gave us was something spectacular in a very short period of time,” Barrack told reporters after meeting Aoun. “I’m unbelievably satisfied with the response.”

Barrack said the current opportunity would require everyone to compromise a little, including letting go of false hopes, unrealistic expectations, and internal hostilities.

When asked about Hezbollah’s rejection of disarmament, Barrack drew a firm line.

He made it clear that the United States has no intention of engaging directly with Hezbollah, insisting that it is up to the Lebanese themselves to address the group’s role. He dismissed any notion that Washington was pushing for regime change or aiming to reshape Lebanon’s sectarian political system.

Instead, he stressed that meaningful reform must come from within, warning that if Lebanon chooses not to act, the rest of the region will continue advancing without it.

Barrack rejected claims that the United States had failed to ensure Israel’s adherence to the previous ceasefire, arguing that the issue stemmed from the absence of a formal security guarantor.

He explained that while a mechanism existed - primarily through UNIFIL - it lacked the authority and credibility needed to enforce compliance. He noted that the Lebanese government is now working to address those shortcomings.

Barrack revealed that Lebanon’s reply addressed 15 specific points. While some differed from the US proposal, he called the Lebanese response “highly responsible.”

He also linked the US initiative to broader international frameworks, including IMF reforms and Lebanese cabinet policies, suggesting that southern Lebanon’s reconstruction and normalization with Israel are part of a larger diplomatic puzzle.

Barrack also pointed to recent developments involving Israel and Syria, revealing that dialogue between the two has begun, and describing the process as complex but necessary.

As for Lebanon's fraught relationship with Israel, Barrack struck a cautiously hopeful tone. "I believe Lebanon and Israel are ultimately seeking the same thing. Israel does not want war with Lebanon, nor does it wish to occupy Lebanon."

Concluding his remarks, Barrack stressed the role of the US, saying, "America cannot provide all the answers. We can only assist from the outside. The real solutions must come from within."