Israel and Hezbollah in Major Missile Exchange as Escalation Fears Grow

Smoke billows from the site of an Israeli airstrike on the southern Lebanese village of Khiam near the border on May 8, 2024 amid ongoing cross-border tensions as fighting continues between Israel and Palestinian Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip. (AFP)
Smoke billows from the site of an Israeli airstrike on the southern Lebanese village of Khiam near the border on May 8, 2024 amid ongoing cross-border tensions as fighting continues between Israel and Palestinian Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip. (AFP)
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Israel and Hezbollah in Major Missile Exchange as Escalation Fears Grow

Smoke billows from the site of an Israeli airstrike on the southern Lebanese village of Khiam near the border on May 8, 2024 amid ongoing cross-border tensions as fighting continues between Israel and Palestinian Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip. (AFP)
Smoke billows from the site of an Israeli airstrike on the southern Lebanese village of Khiam near the border on May 8, 2024 amid ongoing cross-border tensions as fighting continues between Israel and Palestinian Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip. (AFP)

Hezbollah launched hundreds of rockets and drones at Israel early on Sunday, as Israel's military said it struck Lebanon with around 100 jets to thwart a larger attack, in one of the biggest clashes in more than 10 months of border warfare.

Missiles were visible curling up through the dawn sky, dark vapour trails behind them, as an air raid siren sounded in Israel and a distant blast lit the horizon, while smoke rose over houses in Khiam in southern Lebanon.

On Sunday evening, sirens sounded in Rishon Letsiyon, central Israel, the Israeli army said, and added that one projectile had been identified crossing from the southern Gaza Strip and falling in an open area. The armed wing of Hamas said it had fired an "M90" rocket at Tel Aviv.

Any major spillover in the fighting, which began in parallel with the war in Gaza, risks morphing into a regional conflagration drawing in Hezbollah's backer Iran and Israel's main ally the United States.

With three deaths confirmed in Lebanon and one in Israel, both sides indicated they were happy to avoid further escalation for now, but warned that there could be more strikes to come.

Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said the Iranian-backed group's barrage, a reprisal for the assassination of senior commander Fuad Shukr last month, had been completed "as planned".

However, the group would assess the impact of its strikes and "if the result is not enough, then we retain the right to respond another time", he said, Reuters reported.

Israel's foreign minister said the country did not seek a full-scale war, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned: "This is not the end of the story."

Earlier, Netanyahu had said: "We are determined to do everything we can to defend our country ... whoever harms us - we harm him".

The two sides have exchanged messages that neither wants to escalate further, with the main gist being that the exchange was "done", two diplomats told Reuters.

Expectations of an escalation had risen since a missile strike in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights last month killed 12 youths and the Israeli military assassinated Shukr in Beirut in response.

Hezbollah had delayed its retaliation to give time for ceasefire talks, and had calibrated its attack to avoid triggering a full-scale war, a Hezbollah official said.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered the presence of two aircraft carrier strike groups in the Middle East, bolstering the US military presence. Earlier, top US General C.Q. Brown arrived in Israel for talks with military leaders.

Meanwhile in Gaza, the Israeli offensive continued, with airstrikes killing at least five Palestinians in Gaza City early on Monday, according to the official Palestinian news agency Wafa.

There was no agreement in the Gaza ceasefire talks that took place in Cairo, with neither Hamas nor Israel agreeing to several compromises presented by mediators, although a senior US official, described the talks as "constructive" and said the process would continue in the coming days.

- DENSE BOMBARDMENT

Israel's airstrikes started before Hezbollah began its barrage, Nasrallah said. Netanyahu said these "pre-emptive" strikes had foiled a much larger Hezbollah barrage but Nasrallah said they had had little impact.

Hezbollah's own rocket and drone strikes were focused on an intelligence base near Tel Aviv, Nasrallah said. Netanyahu said all the drones targeting what he called a strategic location in central Israel were intercepted.

A security source in Lebanon said at least 40 Israeli strikes had hit various towns in the country's south in one of the densest bombardments since hostilities began in October.

Hezbollah said the strikes killed two of its fighters in al-Tiri. The Hezbollah-allied group Amal said a strike on Khiam killed one of its fighters.

Israel's military said a naval soldier was killed and two wounded.

Lebanon's caretaker prime minister, Najib Mikati, met cabinet ministers at a session of the national emergency committee.

Flights to and from Ben Gurion airport in Tel Aviv were suspended for around 90 minutes. Some flights to and from Beirut were also halted, stranding passengers.

-WARNING SIRENS

In northern Israel, warning sirens sounded and explosions were heard in several areas as Israel's Iron Dome aerial defense system shot down rockets coming from southern Lebanon.

"Israel should, as it did this morning, deliver a pre-emptive strike. But if Hezbollah continues, Israel should strike very hard to remove the threat from Hezbollah once and for all," said Yuval Peleg, 73, from Haifa.

A resident of the southern Lebanese town of Zibqeen told Reuters he had awakened "to the sound of planes and the loud explosions of rockets - even before the dawn prayer. It felt like the apocalypse."

The White House said US President Joe Biden was following events. "We will keep supporting Israel's right to defend itself, and we will keep working for regional stability," National Security Council spokesperson Sean Savett said.

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres was "deeply concerned" by the escalation between Israel and Hezbollah and called on both parties to immediately return to a cessation of hostilities, his spokesperson said.

Egypt and Jordan also warned against escalation.

The United States was not involved in Israel's strikes on Sunday, but provided some intelligence about incoming Hezbollah attacks, a US official said.

Hezbollah fired missiles at Israel immediately after the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas on Israel. Hezbollah and Israel have been exchanging fire constantly ever since, while avoiding a major escalation as war rages in Gaza to the south.

That precarious balance appeared to shift after the strike in the Golan Heights, for which Hezbollah denied responsibility, and the subsequent assassination of Shukr, one of Hezbollah's most senior military commanders.

Shukr's death in an airstrike was quickly followed by the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, which led to vows of reprisals against Israel by Iran.



Advanced US Radar and Special Israeli Unit to Hunt Hamas Leader, Sinwar

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar holds the son of an Al-Qassam Brigades member who was killed in fighting with Israel, during a rally in Gaza City, May 24, 2021 (AFP)
Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar holds the son of an Al-Qassam Brigades member who was killed in fighting with Israel, during a rally in Gaza City, May 24, 2021 (AFP)
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Advanced US Radar and Special Israeli Unit to Hunt Hamas Leader, Sinwar

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar holds the son of an Al-Qassam Brigades member who was killed in fighting with Israel, during a rally in Gaza City, May 24, 2021 (AFP)
Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar holds the son of an Al-Qassam Brigades member who was killed in fighting with Israel, during a rally in Gaza City, May 24, 2021 (AFP)

By Mark Mazzetti, Ronen Bergman, Julian E. Barnes and Adam Goldman

 

In January, Israeli and American officials thought they had caught a break in the hunt for one of the world’s most wanted men.
Israeli commandos raided an elaborate tunnel complex in the southern Gaza Strip on Jan. 31 based on intelligence that Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader, was hiding there, according to American and Israeli officials.
He had been, it turned out. But Sinwar had left the bunker beneath the city of Khan Younis just days earlier, leaving behind documents and stacks of Israeli shekels totaling about $1 million. The hunt went on, with a dearth of hard evidence on his whereabouts.
Since the Oct. 7 attacks in Israel that he planned and directed, Sinwar has been something of a ghost: never appearing in public, rarely releasing messages for his followers and giving up few clues about where he might be.
He is by far Hamas’s most important figure, and his success in evading capture or death has denied Israel the ability to make a foundational claim: that it has won the war and eradicated Hamas in a conflict that has decimated the group’s ranks but also destroyed the Gaza Strip and killed tens of thousands of civilians.
American and Israeli officials said Sinwar abandoned electronic communications long ago, and he has so far avoided a sophisticated intelligence dragnet. He is believed to stay in touch with the organization he leads through a network of human couriers. How that system works remains a mystery.
It is a playbook used by Hamas leaders in the past, and by other leaders like Osama bin Laden. And yet Sinwar’s situation is more complex, and even more frustrating to American and Israeli officials.
Unlike bin Laden in his last years, Sinwar is actively managing a military campaign. Diplomats involved in ceasefire negotiations in Doha, Qatar, say that Hamas representatives insist they need Sinwar’s input before they make major decisions in the talks. As the most respected Hamas leader, he is the only person who can ensure that whatever is decided in Doha is implemented in Gaza.
Interviews with more than two dozen officials in Israel and the United States reveal that both countries have poured vast resources into trying to find Sinwar.
Officials have set up a special unit inside the headquarters of Shin Bet, Israel’s domestic intelligence service, and American spy agencies have been tasked with intercepting Sinwar’s communications. The United States has also provided ground-penetrating radar to Israel to help in the hunt for him and other Hamas commanders.
Killing or capturing Sinwar would undoubtedly have a dramatic impact on the war. American officials believe it would offer Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel a way to claim a significant military victory and potentially make him more willing to end military operations in Gaza.
But it is less clear what effect Sinwar’s death would have on negotiations for the release of hostages seized on Oct. 7. Removing him might make his successors far less willing to make a deal with Israel.
Communicating with Sinwar has become more difficult, said Israeli, Qatari, Egyptian and American officials. He used to respond to messages within days, but the officials said that it has taken much longer to get a response from him in recent months, and that some of his deputies at times have been his proxies in those discussions.
Sinwar, who is 61, was declared the group’s top political leader in early August, days after Ismail Haniyeh, the previous political chief, was killed in an Israeli assassination plot in Tehran.
But, in reality, Sinwar has long been considered Hamas’s de facto leader, even if the group’s political operatives based in Doha held the official leadership titles.
The pressure on the Hamas leader has made it far more difficult for him to communicate with military commanders and direct day-to-day operations, although American officials said that he still has the ability to dictate the group’s broad strategy.
It was weeks after the Oct. 7 attacks, which killed at least 1,200 people, when a special committee of senior Israeli intelligence and military officials approved a kill list of top Hamas commanders and political officials. Many of the men on the list, including Haniyeh, have been killed in the months since.
With each assassination, the Israeli defense minister, Yoav Gallant, has put an “X” over a name on the diagram of the Hamas leadership he keeps on his wall.
But Sinwar, the most important of all, remains at large.
Life Underground
Before the war, Sinwar was a towering presence in Gaza.
He gave interviews, presided over military exercises and even made a televised appearance to present an award to a show depicting a Hamas attack on Israel — an eerie precursor to Oct. 7.
During the first weeks of the war, Israeli intelligence and military officials believe that Sinwar was living in a warren of tunnels beneath Gaza City, the largest city in the strip and one of the first targeted by Israeli military forces.
During one early raid on a tunnel in Gaza City, Israeli soldiers found a video — filmed days earlier — of Sinwar in the midst of moving his family to a different hiding spot under the city. Israeli intelligence officials believe that Sinwar kept his family with him for at least the first six months of the war.
Back then, Sinwar still used cellular and satellite phones — made possible by cell networks in the tunnels — and from time to time spoke to Hamas officials in Doha. American and Israeli spy agencies were able to monitor some of those calls but were not able to pinpoint his location.
As Gaza ran low on fuel, Gallant pushed for new shipments to Gaza to power generators needed to keep the cell networks running so that the Israeli eavesdropping could continue — over the objections of ultra right members of the Israeli government who wanted the fuel shipments cut off to punish the residents of Gaza.
During this period, the spy agencies gained glimpses of his life underground, including his voracious consumption of Israeli news media and his insistence on watching the 8pm news on Israeli TV.
In November, a freed Israeli hostage described how Sinwar had addressed a large number of Israeli captives not long after the Oct. 7 attacks. Speaking in Hebrew, which he learned during his years in an Israeli prison, Sinwar told them that they were safe where they were, and that no harm would come to them, according to the hostage’s account.
Israeli officials said that all Hamas operatives hiding underground, even Sinwar, must occasionally come out of the tunnels for health reasons. But the tunnel network is so vast and complex — and Hamas fighters have such good intelligence about the whereabouts of Israeli troops — that Sinwar can sometimes come above ground without being discovered.
Sinwar eventually moved south to Khan Younis, the city where he was born, Israeli and American officials believe, and probably occasionally traveled from there to the city of Rafah through a stretch of tunnel.
By the time the Khan Younis bunker was raided on Jan. 31, Sinwar had fled, Israeli officials said.
He stayed one step ahead of his pursuers, who sometimes made boastful comments about how close they were to finding him.
In late December, as Israeli military units began excavating tunnels in one area of the city, Gallant bragged to reporters that Sinwar “hears the bulldozers of the Israeli army above him, and he will meet the barrels of our guns soon.”
It appears Sinwar fled the Khan Younis bunker in some haste, leaving the many piles of Israeli shekels behind.
Shared Interests
Almost immediately after the Oct. 7 attacks, Israeli military intelligence and Shin Bet, Israel’s domestic security service, established a cell inside Shin Bet headquarters with the singular mission of finding Sinwar.
The CIA also set up a task force, and the Pentagon dispatched special operations troops to Israel to advise the Israel forces on the looming war in Gaza.
The United States, which considers Hamas a terrorist organization, and Israel established channels to share information about the location of Sinwar and other top Hamas commanders, and the hostages.
“We’ve devoted considerable effort and resources to the Israelis for the hunt for the top leadership, particularly Sinwar,” said Jake Sullivan, the White House national security adviser. “We’ve had people in Israel sitting in the room with the Israelis working this problem set. And obviously we have a lot of experience hunting high-value targets.”
In particular, the Americans have deployed ground-penetrating radar to help map the hundreds of miles of tunnels they believe are under Gaza, with new imagery combined with Israeli intelligence gathered from captured Hamas fighters and troves of documents to build out a more complete picture of the tunnel network.
One senior Israeli official said American intelligence support had been “priceless.”
The Israelis and Americans have a mutual interest in locating Hamas commanders and the dozens of hostages, including Americans, who remain in Gaza.
But one person familiar with the intelligence-sharing arrangement, who discussed it on the condition of anonymity, describes it as often “very lopsided” — with the Americans sharing more than the Israelis give in return. At times, the person said, the Americans provide information about Hamas leaders in the hopes that the Israelis will direct some of their own intelligence resources toward finding the American hostages.
Rise to the Top
During the 1980s, in the years after he was recruited by Hamas’s founder, Sheik Ahmed Yassin, Sinwar’s influence in the group grew steadily.
He took over as the head of Hamas’s internal security unit, a group charged with finding and punishing Palestinians suspected of collaborating with Israeli authorities as well as anyone who commits blasphemy.
He spent years in an Israeli prison but was released in October 2011 along with more than 1,000 other prisoners as part of an exchange for Gilad Shalit, an Israeli soldier captured by Hamas.
In 2017, Sinwar was named Hamas’s leader in Gaza.
While he has had an outsized impact on decision-making within Hamas, Sinwar has shaped his positions in close coordination with a group of Hamas political and military leaders in Gaza, according to analysts who have studied Hamas.
The circle of confidants has included Marwan Issa, a Hamas military commander killed in March; Rawhi Mushtaha, a member of Hamas’s political office in Gaza; Izzeldin al-Haddad, a senior commander in the military wing; Mohammed Sinwar, Sinwar’s brother and a top official in the military wing; and Muhammad Deif, the leader of the military wing, according to Ibrahim al-Madhoun, an Istanbul-based expert who maintains a close relationship with Hamas.
But Sinwar’s network of advisers has been steadily shrinking: Some top Hamas commanders have been killed, some captured, and others were outside of Gaza when the war began and have not been able to return since.
Deif was the most senior adviser to Sinwar, but was less disciplined than his boss. He came above ground far more regularly, allowing Western intelligence agencies to pinpoint his whereabouts.
It was on one of those occasions, Israeli officials say, when he was killed in an airstrike.

 

The New York Times