Iran Seeks to Calm Iraqi Infighting over Spy Dispute as Region Flares Up

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani attends a press conference, in Baghdad, Iraq April 22, 2024. (Reuters)
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani attends a press conference, in Baghdad, Iraq April 22, 2024. (Reuters)
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Iran Seeks to Calm Iraqi Infighting over Spy Dispute as Region Flares Up

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani attends a press conference, in Baghdad, Iraq April 22, 2024. (Reuters)
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani attends a press conference, in Baghdad, Iraq April 22, 2024. (Reuters)

Iran's Quds Force commander told Iraqi political leaders last week to ease criticism of the prime minister who has been embroiled in a row over spying allegations, sources said, seeking to steady a regional ally as conflict in the Middle East flares.

Esmail Qaani made the request during a visit to Baghdad, according to seven Iraqi sources who spoke to Reuters, including people in political parties whose leaders the Iranian commander met. A regional diplomat confirmed the account. All the sources asked not to be named because the meetings were held in private.

The move to avert any weakening of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani reflects concerns in Iran about instability on its doorstep in Iraq, where Tehran has long wielded influence via a range of Iran-backed armed groups and Shiite parties.

Tehran is keen to avoid further pressure on its regional alliances after the almost year-long Gaza war, which has hammered Hamas, and amid an escalating conflict in Lebanon that has put huge pressure on Tehran's key regional ally, Hezbollah.

The Quds Force is the overseas branch of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). The IRGC and Iran's Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Qaani told Iraqi leaders in the Coordination Framework, a grouping of Shiite parties that picked Sudani for the job, not to undermine the prime minister amid allegations his office spied on top Iraqi officials and politicians. Qaani said stability in Iraq was vital amid the regional violence.

The spying allegations, which have been denied by advisers to Sudani and for which no evidence has been publicly presented, were aired by lawmakers and major media organizations last month and have caused a stir in Iraq.

PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS NEXT YEAR

Loyalists and independent observers say PM Sudani's political opponents stoked the allegations to try to weaken him before parliamentary elections next year. Parties critical of him say the allegations are serious.

Iraq's judiciary has opened a probe into the matter overseen by Faiq Zaidan, the head of the Supreme Judicial Council, and some Iraqi officials said the results of the probe could determine whether the prime minister continues in his job.

For Sudani, the dispute comes at a delicate moment. He is seeking to rebuild the economy after decades of conflict ahead of elections and to balance the influence of well-armed, Iran-backed factions while negotiating a drawdown of US-led forces in Iraq, where Washington has maintained a contingent for years.

Renad Mansour at the London-based Chatham House think tank said Iran wanted to prevent tensions in Iraq, where rivalries have often turned violent, before parliamentary polls in 2025.

"At a crucial moment for Iran when it's trying to respond to Israeli aggression, the Iraqi groups are infighting in a way that's destabilizing. The last thing Iran wants now is a political mess in Iraq," Mansour said.

It's not the first time Qaani has intervened in Iraq in a moment of crisis.

In February, he asked armed factions that Iran backs in Iraq to cease attacks on US forces after a strike by one group on a US base on the Syria-Jordan border, killed three US troops, Reuters reported at the time.

There were no attacks for months afterwards.



Hamas to Conceal Identity of Sinwar’s Successor, Five Candidates Considered

Yahya Sinwar in a file photo taken in Gaza on October 21, 2011 (AP)
Yahya Sinwar in a file photo taken in Gaza on October 21, 2011 (AP)
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Hamas to Conceal Identity of Sinwar’s Successor, Five Candidates Considered

Yahya Sinwar in a file photo taken in Gaza on October 21, 2011 (AP)
Yahya Sinwar in a file photo taken in Gaza on October 21, 2011 (AP)

Hamas is set to keep the identity of its new political bureau chief secret after Israel assassinated Yehya Sinwar, the group’s Gaza leader, on Wednesday.

This follows the killing of former political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran less than three months ago.

Sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that Hamas leaders are discussing the decision to hide the new leader’s name due to growing security risks.

“The leadership is likely to keep the identity confidential for safety reasons,” one source said.

The move is aimed at giving the new chief more freedom to operate and avoiding Israeli assassination attempts, which have targeted many of Hamas’ leaders.

The secrecy is also expected to help maintain internal order and protect the group’s structure.

Hamas wants to keep Israel uncertain about who will make decisions if talks resume on a ceasefire and a prisoner exchange in Gaza.

Since Friday, after officially announcing Sinwar’s death, Hamas leaders have been discussing who will replace him and whether to reveal their identity.

Sinwar was appointed about three months ago to send a defiant message to Israel and to show Hamas’ commitment to its “Al-Aqsa Flood” campaign.

His selection also aimed to reduce pressure on the group’s external leadership, which faces Israeli threats, political pressure from mediators, and calls for host countries to expel Hamas leaders.

Potential Successors:

Darwish, the ‘Shadow Man’

Several candidates are being considered to replace Sinwar, who faced no competition for Hamas’ political leadership after Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran on July 31.

The focus is now on Mohammad Darwish (Abu Omar Hassan), head of Hamas’ Shura Council. He was relatively unknown until gaining attention after Haniyeh’s death.

Many believe he has a strong chance, having appeared in recent official meetings ahead of some long-standing leaders.

A Hamas source said Darwish, once seen as the “shadow man,” is now taking on a more prominent role, receiving visitors and leading key activities.

Darwish spent much of his life abroad and was closely tied to the Muslim Brotherhood, from which Hamas originally emerged. Hamas later revised its charter and distanced itself from the Brotherhood.

Khalil al-Hayya: Sinwar’s Deputy

Alongside Darwish, Khalil al-Hayya is seen as a key contender, believed to be Sinwar’s deputy. Al-Hayya became a leading figure in Gaza after Sinwar’s disappearance and assassination.

A veteran political leader in Gaza, al-Hayya became Sinwar’s deputy and a close ally. He now leads Hamas in Gaza and is in charge of ceasefire negotiations and a potential prisoner exchange.

Al-Hayya has represented the group on key occasions, including speeches marking the October 7 attack and mourning Sinwar, calling him “the leader of the Al-Aqsa Flood battle.”

He promised that Hamas would continue its fight for full Palestinian liberation and a state with Jerusalem as its capital.

Al-Hayya also stated that Israeli prisoners held by Hamas would not be released unless Israel halts its offensive on Gaza, withdraws, and frees Palestinian prisoners.

Known as a political hardliner, al-Hayya, like Sinwar, supports strong ties with Iran.

Khaled Meshaal: Closer to the Muslim Brotherhood than Iran

In addition to al-Hayya and Darwish, Khaled Meshaal, Mousa Abu Marzouk, and Mohammad Nazzal are also possible candidates to lead Hamas.

Meshaal led Hamas’ political bureau for about 21 years and now heads the group’s external branch.

After Haniyeh’s assassination, Meshaal reportedly declined the leadership role due to health reasons and the current situation. It is unclear if he will now step in after Sinwar's death.

Meshaal is widely known politically and is seen as more connected to the Muslim Brotherhood than to Iran.

Mohammad Nazzal: A Hardliner in Hamas

Mohammad Nazzal’s influence was evident in the recent elections.

Born and raised in Amman, Jordan, Nazzal is originally from the West Bank and studied in Kuwait. He joined Hamas at its founding and has been a member of the political bureau since 1996. Nazzal is regarded as one of the hardliners within the group.

Mousa Abu Marzouk: First Head of the Political Bureau

Mousa Abu Marzouk is another candidate for leadership. He co-founded Hamas in 1987 and was its first head of the political bureau.

He currently serves as the deputy head of Hamas’ external branch. Born in 1951 in the Rafah refugee camp, his family was displaced from a village near Ramla.

It is expected that the next Hamas leader will be chosen from among these candidates rather than from Gaza, especially given the communication breakdown with some leaders in the territory.

Hamas has a system for selecting successors for vacant positions.

Hiding the Identity of Hamas' Leader

Hamas began concealing the identity of its leader in 2004 after Israel assassinated founder Ahmed Yassin on March 22, followed by his successor, Abdel Aziz al-Rantisi, on April 17.

For a long time, Hamas did not disclose the name of its leader in Palestine to avoid Israeli targeting.

Sinwar was killed on October 17, a major setback for Hamas that came just three months after former political chief Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran.

Sinwar’s death has prompted Hamas to start extensive consultations to shape its future approach to the ongoing conflict and ceasefire negotiations.

This shift returned decision-making power to the external leadership after Gaza had been the focus.

Future decisions are likely to involve broader discussions, especially with the absence of influential historical leaders. While not indicating a collective leadership model like Hezbollah's in Lebanon, it suggests a move towards more inclusive consultation.

Since its founding in 1987, Hamas has had four leaders of the political bureau: Abu Marzouk (1992-1996), Meshaal (1996-2017), Haniyeh (2017 until his assassination), and Sinwar. A fifth leader is expected to be chosen soon.