Hezbollah Faces a Choice: Adapt to Change or Return to Conflict

An image grab shows Hezbollah chief Naim Qasem delivering a televised speech from an undisclosed location. AFP
An image grab shows Hezbollah chief Naim Qasem delivering a televised speech from an undisclosed location. AFP
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Hezbollah Faces a Choice: Adapt to Change or Return to Conflict

An image grab shows Hezbollah chief Naim Qasem delivering a televised speech from an undisclosed location. AFP
An image grab shows Hezbollah chief Naim Qasem delivering a televised speech from an undisclosed location. AFP

In his recent speech, Hezbollah's Deputy Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem sent several messages to both Lebanon and the wider world, suggesting that the post-war era will be different from the past.

While he declared victory over Israel, he also signaled a shift towards political engagement under the Taif Agreement, highlighting the changes facing both Hezbollah and the broader “Resistance Axis.”

However, the victory Qassem spoke of does not reflect Lebanon's reality after the war.

Former minister Rashid Derbas argued that Hezbollah may claim victory, but in truth, Lebanon—both as a state and a people—has been defeated. He noted that Qassem's remarks are mainly aimed at rallying supporters, while the Lebanese people continue to suffer.

In a statement to Asharq Al-Awsat, Derbas said that while Sheikh Naim Qassem has the right to address his supporters this way, he views the overall tone of the speech as positive.

Derbas highlighted Qassem’s decision to return to political work under the Taif Agreement, his call for a swift presidential election, and his push for cooperation with the Lebanese army.

In his speech, Hezbollah’s Secretary-General outlined the party’s future vision, including high-level coordination with the Lebanese army, continued support for Palestine, and ongoing reconstruction efforts with the Lebanese state and international partners.

He emphasized that Hezbollah’s role in Lebanon will remain politically and economically influential, with a focus on completing constitutional institutions, starting with electing a new president.

The results of the war have forced Hezbollah to reassess its approach, pushing for deeper political integration in a more pragmatic manner than before.

Derbas praised Qassem’s agreement to withdraw completely north of the Litani River, signaling a shift away from confrontation with Israel. He noted that Hezbollah has come to realize that only Lebanon and the state can protect it, not Syria, Iraq, or Iran.

Regarding Hezbollah’s “army, people, and resistance” equation, Derbas pointed out the reality of Israel's military strength, which is linked to US weapons, and emphasized the need to rely on the state for protection.

He stressed that the party must return to a more realistic approach.

The tone of Hezbollah’s rhetoric after this war is different from its stance after the 2006 July War, which was more aggressive toward political forces.

Political analyst Qassem Qasir noted that the party is now acting with greater rationality, coordinating with the Lebanese state and army to implement UN Resolution 1701.

He called on all political groups to adopt a positive and non-provocative discourse that reflects Hezbollah’s openness toward all Lebanese factions.



Israeli Leaders Applaud Trump Pledge on Hostages, Gazans Fear the Worst

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a news conference in Jerusalem on September 2, 2024. (AFP)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a news conference in Jerusalem on September 2, 2024. (AFP)
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Israeli Leaders Applaud Trump Pledge on Hostages, Gazans Fear the Worst

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a news conference in Jerusalem on September 2, 2024. (AFP)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a news conference in Jerusalem on September 2, 2024. (AFP)

Israeli leaders hailed on Tuesday a pledge by US President-elect Donald Trump that there would be "hell to pay" in the Middle East unless hostages held in the Gaza Strip were released ahead of his Jan. 20 inauguration.

The reaction in Gaza was less enthusiastic.

Writing on Truth Social, and without naming any group, Trump said the hostages had to be freed by the time he was sworn in.

If his demand was not met, he said: "Those responsible will be hit harder than anybody has been hit in the long and storied History of the United States of America."

During their deadly 2023 attack on Israel, Hamas-led fighters captured more than 250 people. Some have been released or freed but around half of them are still in Gaza, although at least a third of these are believed to be dead.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and many of his ministers publicly thanked Trump for his hard-hitting words.

"President Trump put the emphasis in the right place, on Hamas, and not on the Israeli government, as is customary (elsewhere)," Netanyahu said at the start of a cabinet meeting.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said Trump's statement had made clear to everyone who was in the right, and who was wrong.

"This is the way to bring back the hostages: by increasing the pressure and the costs for Hamas and its supporters, and defeating them, rather than giving in to their absurd demands."

Families of the missing hostages also expressed their gratitude. "It is now evident to all: the time has come. We must bring them home NOW," the families forum said.

NEGOTIATIONS STALLED

Israel and Hamas have held on-off negotiations since October 2023, but after an initial hostage release in November, little progress has been made with both sides blaming each other.

Responding to Trump's post, senior Hamas official Basem Naim said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had sabotaged all efforts to secure a deal that involved exchanging the hostages for Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli prisons.

"Therefore, we understand (Trump's) message is directed first at Netanyahu and his government to end this evil game," he told Reuters.

Gaza political analyst Ramiz Moghani said Trump's threat was directed at both Hamas and its backer Iran, and warned that it would embolden Israel to not expel Palestinians from swathes of Gaza but also annex the nearby, Israeli-occupied West Bank.

"These statements have serious implications for the Israeli war in Gaza and the West Bank," he told Reuters.

Mohammed Dahlan, like hundreds of thousands of Gazans, has had to flee his house because of the fighting and is desperate for the war to end. But he said he was shocked by Trump.

"We were hoping that the new administration would bring with it a breakthrough .... but it seems (Trump) is in complete agreement with the Israeli administration and that there are apparently more punitive measures ahead," he said.