Syria’s Hama: Key to Controlling Military Operations

Fierce battles between Syrian army and opposition factions in Hama (AP)
Fierce battles between Syrian army and opposition factions in Hama (AP)
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Syria’s Hama: Key to Controlling Military Operations

Fierce battles between Syrian army and opposition factions in Hama (AP)
Fierce battles between Syrian army and opposition factions in Hama (AP)

Fierce clashes are unfolding in northern Hama, with the Syrian army working to block opposition groups trying to enter from three directions: Khatab to the northwest, Maardes to the north, and Maar Shuhur to the northeast.
Hama, located in central Syria, is a key military hub linking the country’s regions. It is home to vital military sites, including Hama military airport, weapon depots, army barracks, and the Mechanized Infantry School, as well as the Military Intelligence Directorate.
Hama is politically and symbolically important, as it is mostly Sunni Muslim. In 1982, the city was the site of the largest anti-Ba'ath regime protests since the 1960s. The protests were met with a harsh military response, killing and displacing tens of thousands.
This event remains a key part of the city's history and played a major role in Hama’s involvement in the 2011 uprising, which was later crushed and turned into an armed conflict.
Although the government controls Hama, the city remains hostile to pro-regime loyalists, who are mainly confined to government offices. There are efforts to increase their presence through official events.
Hama is one of the least militarized cities in Syria, with fewer security forces and military personnel on the streets compared to cities like Damascus and Homs, where they dominate public spaces.
Local sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that while the community has resisted outside influence, recent years have seen growing involvement from Iran and Hezbollah through economic means and warlords.
Iran has increased its presence in Hama’s countryside and tried to spread Shia Islam, taking advantage of local poverty, but its influence in the city itself has been limited.
Hama’s strategic importance lies in its role as a key supply route between Aleppo, the coast, and the poor western countryside villages, which have historically supplied recruits to security forces. It is also connected to the coastal areas, where many senior officials come from.
Militant groups are aiming to capture Hama because it provides a path to advance into southern Hama and northern Homs.
Taking Homs would allow them to cut off Damascus from the coast and block the M5 highway, which links Damascus, Homs, Hama, and Aleppo.
Since the situation escalated in Aleppo and the militant offensive began, Hama has been under intense stress and fear.
As militants neared the city's outskirts last Saturday, a de facto curfew took hold, with many displaced people from Aleppo filling the streets and parks. Dozens are living in cars and on sidewalks, while most businesses have shut down.
Only bakeries and food shops are open for a few hours to meet the high demand for supplies.

 



Will Lebanon Finally Elect a President after a 2-year Vacuum?

A ballot box is displayed inside the parliament building, a day ahead of Lebanon's parliament's attempt to elect a new head of state in downtown Beirut, Lebanon, January 8, 2025. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
A ballot box is displayed inside the parliament building, a day ahead of Lebanon's parliament's attempt to elect a new head of state in downtown Beirut, Lebanon, January 8, 2025. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
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Will Lebanon Finally Elect a President after a 2-year Vacuum?

A ballot box is displayed inside the parliament building, a day ahead of Lebanon's parliament's attempt to elect a new head of state in downtown Beirut, Lebanon, January 8, 2025. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
A ballot box is displayed inside the parliament building, a day ahead of Lebanon's parliament's attempt to elect a new head of state in downtown Beirut, Lebanon, January 8, 2025. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir

Lebanon's parliament is set to convene Thursday to attempt to elect a head of state for the 13th time during a presidential vacuum that's lasted over two years. This time, analysts said, they might succeed.
The session comes weeks after a tenuous ceasefire agreement halted a 14-month conflict between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, and as Lebanon's leaders seek international assistance for reconstruction, The Associated Press said.
The primary contenders for the presidency include the Lebanese army's commander, Joseph Aoun, who is widely seen as the preferred candidate of the United States and Saudi Arabia. The candidate previously supported by Hezbollah, Suleiman Franjieh, on Wednesday announced he was pulling out of the race and endorsed Aoun.
The Lebanese military has a key role in sustaining the ceasefire, as its forces are tasked with ensuring that Hezbollah pulls its fighters and weapons out of southern Lebanon.
Here's why the vacuum has dragged on for so long and what to expect Thursday:
Why has it taken so long to elect a president? Lebanon's fractious sectarian power-sharing system is prone to deadlock, both for political and procedural reasons. The small, crisis-battered Mediterranean country has been through several extended presidential vacancies, with the longest lasting nearly 2 1/2 years between May 2014 and October 2016. It ended when former President Michel Aoun was elected.
Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement party was at the time the main Christian ally of the Shiite political party and Hezbollah, although their alliance has since fractured.
After Aoun's term ended in October 2022, Hezbollah backed Franjieh, leader of the Marada Movement, a political party with a strong influence in northern Lebanon. Frangieh also had close ties with former Syrian president Bashar Assad.
While Joseph Aoun — no relation to the former president — never officially announced his candidacy, he was widely understood to be the main rival to Franjieh. Meanwhile, political factions opposed to Hezbollah put forward a series of candidates.
The last presidential vote in parliament in June 2023 broke down after the bloc led by Hezbollah withdrew following the first round of voting, where Franjieh came in behind the opposition candidate, Jihad Azour. The withdrawal broke the quorum in the 128-member house.
Michael Young, a senior editor at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, said the current election “has taken a long time simply because parliament, reflecting the reality of the country, is very divided, and actually did not respect the constitutional provisions to hold electoral session open until a president was elected.”
The situation was exacerbated because parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri, a Hezbollah ally, used parliamentary rules “more as an instrument of blockage than an instrument of consensus,” lifting sessions whenever he “did not want a majority to develop around the candidacies he did not support,” Young said.
Imad Salamey, a political science professor at the Lebanese American University in Beirut, noted that “Lebanon’s dependence on foreign support means external agreements often determine presidential outcomes.”
During the current impasse, a five-member committee consisting of the United States, France, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Qatar has held a series of meetings aimed at negotiating an end to the presidential vacuum.
Who are the main contenders? — Army commander Joseph Aoun, 60, is widely seen as the frontrunner to become Lebanon’s next president, particularly since Franjieh's withdrawal.
Aoun was appointed to the current post in March 2017 and had been set to retire in January 2024, but his term was extended twice during the Israel-Hezbollah conflict.
Aoun, who has kept a low profile and avoided media appearances, never formally announced his candidacy but is widely seen as the preferred candidate of the United States, which provides significant financial support to the Lebanese army.
Lebanon’s constitution technically bars a sitting army chief from becoming president. The ban has been waived before, but it means that Aoun faces additional procedural hurdles.
Under normal circumstances, a presidential candidate in Lebanon can be elected by a two-thirds majority in the first round of voting or by a simple majority in the second round if there is no winner in the first round. But because of the constitutional issues surrounding his election, Aoun would need a two-thirds majority even in the second round.
— Jihad Azour, who has been backed by factions opposed to Hezbollah, is a prominent economist who has served as the director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund since 2017. As finance minister from 2005 to 2008, he led some reforms including modernizing the tax and customs systems.
— Elias al-Baysari is the acting head of Lebanon's General Security agency, which is responsible for border control and historically seen as close to Hezbollah. His career in national security began in 1986 when he joined the Lebanese army. His early roles included key positions within Beirut’s port security and the army’s intelligence division. In 2005, al-Baysari joined General Security. He also holds a doctorate in law.
What are the chances a president will be elected Thursday? The withdrawal of Franjieh likely means “the deal is done” and Aoun will likely be elected, Young said.
The dynamics have changed since the last failed parliamentary vote.
“Hezbollah is in a weaker position due to escalating tensions with Israel, challenges in Syria and domestic discontent,” Salamey said. “It now needs the protection of a functioning state to rebuild and attract international aid.”
According to Young, “Lebanon today is effectively under some sort of foreign trusteeship.”
Lebanon needs American support to “contain Israeli actions” and ensure that Israel withdraws its forces from southern Lebanon as stipulated in the ceasefire, he said, while Saudi Arabia is “the key to Gulf funding for Lebanon’s reconstruction, particularly of Shiite areas. Iran does not have the means to rebuild what was destroyed by Israel in the recent conflict.”