Al-Sudani to Bring ‘Black Box’ to Tehran

A handout picture released by the Iraqi Prime Minister's Media Office on January 2, 2025, shows Mohammed Shia al-Sudani during the inauguration ceremony of the fourth and fifth units at the oil refinery of Baiji. (Photo by IRAQI PRIME MINISTER'S PRESS OFFICE / AFP)
A handout picture released by the Iraqi Prime Minister's Media Office on January 2, 2025, shows Mohammed Shia al-Sudani during the inauguration ceremony of the fourth and fifth units at the oil refinery of Baiji. (Photo by IRAQI PRIME MINISTER'S PRESS OFFICE / AFP)
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Al-Sudani to Bring ‘Black Box’ to Tehran

A handout picture released by the Iraqi Prime Minister's Media Office on January 2, 2025, shows Mohammed Shia al-Sudani during the inauguration ceremony of the fourth and fifth units at the oil refinery of Baiji. (Photo by IRAQI PRIME MINISTER'S PRESS OFFICE / AFP)
A handout picture released by the Iraqi Prime Minister's Media Office on January 2, 2025, shows Mohammed Shia al-Sudani during the inauguration ceremony of the fourth and fifth units at the oil refinery of Baiji. (Photo by IRAQI PRIME MINISTER'S PRESS OFFICE / AFP)

Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has postponed his visit to Iran until next week.

Sources say he will discuss key regional and internal issues, including the disbanding of Iran-backed militias in Iraq, and may deliver “strong warnings” from the US about restricting weapons to state control.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, said the visit aims to strengthen ties and discuss regional developments. Al-Sudani will hold talks with top Iranian officials during his trip.

The Iraqi government has not confirmed or denied the reports, but concerns are rising in both Iraq and Iran.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has recently addressed issues related to the “Axis of Resistance” following the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

Unconfirmed reports in Baghdad say Iraq received a “warning” from US President-elect Donald Trump.

Ammar al-Hakim, leader of the National Wisdom Movement, revealed some details on Thursday. The message, which marked a shift in US policy, may have been delivered by a secret envoy or through a phone call from Trump.

Al-Hakim, a prominent figure in the Shiite Coordination Framework, confirmed that the US administration is targeting certain Iraqi armed factions.

However, he stressed that the incoming Trump administration has no intention of overthrowing the Iranian regime or destabilizing the political system in Iraq.

“A decision will be made against the factions... This is what we’ve heard from the US and some groups in the Coordination Framework with armed factions,” said al-Hakim at a gathering in Najaf, south of Baghdad.

“This is not aimed at the Coordination Framework as a political force but at Iran-backed armed factions like Kataib Hezbollah and al-Nujaba,” he clarified.

On rumors of a political change in Iraq, al-Hakim said: “This is circulating on social media, but I haven’t heard it from international or regional politicians or in talks with official delegations after the events in Syria.”

Al-Hakim also reassured that there is an “international will” to avoid targeting Iraq’s political system.

“The goal is to maintain Iraq’s stability because chaos there would disrupt regional security, which neighboring countries reject. The current system is expected to remain,” he affirmed.

With al-Hakim’s reassurance about the political system staying intact but without armed factions, all eyes are on al-Sudani’s upcoming visit to Tehran.

He is expected to carry a “black box” discussing the disbanding of militias. While the decision to limit weapons to the state is Iraqi, many militias are ideologically tied to Iran, which calls for direct talks with Tehran.



Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
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Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time, AFP reported.

The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

- 'A good estimate' -

The researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

"Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed," Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached "a good estimate" for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain's Open University, told AFP there was "inevitably a lot of uncertainty" when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was "admirable" that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

"Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

- 'Criticism' expected from both sides -

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems -- such as a heart attack -- could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection "might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease" in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that "criticism is going to come from different sides" about the new research.

She spoke out against the "obsession" of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that "we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”