Iraqi Officials Debate Country’s Future after Radical Changes in Syria

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani meets with parliament Speaker Dr. Mahmoud al-Mashhadani on Friday. (Government's press office)
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani meets with parliament Speaker Dr. Mahmoud al-Mashhadani on Friday. (Government's press office)
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Iraqi Officials Debate Country’s Future after Radical Changes in Syria

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani meets with parliament Speaker Dr. Mahmoud al-Mashhadani on Friday. (Government's press office)
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani meets with parliament Speaker Dr. Mahmoud al-Mashhadani on Friday. (Government's press office)

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani dismissed on Saturday calls for changing the political system in the country in wake of the radical changes in Syria with the ouster of Bashar al-Assad's regime.

Speaking at a ceremony commemorating the death of former head of the Supreme Iraqi Council Mohammed Baqer al-Hakim in 2003, Sudani stressed that Iraq had sought to distance itself from the developments in Syria.

“Some parties are using the situation in Syria to attempt to change the system of rule in Iraq. This issue is not up for debate,” he declared, while acknowledging that the region had witnessed in over a year major developments that have resulted in significant political changes.

Iraq is built on a democratic pluralistic system and the peaceful transition of power, he went on to say. It allows reform and correcting any imbalances through the constitution and laws.

“No one has the right to impose change and reforms in any file, whether it is economic or security-related,” he stated, while admitting that reforms are needed in various sectors.

Sudani noted that Iraq has managed in recent months to hold provincial elections and a census and restructured relations with the anti-ISIS coalition.

“These issues were completed at the insistence of our government in achieving full sovereignty and eliminating any restrictions on Iraq’s international activities,” he added.

Moreover, the PM stressed the need to “steer Iraq clear of becoming an arena for war in the coming months. We have consulted with brothers and friends to that end.”

Iraq is ready to help ease the suffering of the people of Gaza and Lebanon, he added.

Meanwhile, parliament Speaker Dr. Mahmoud al-Mashhadan reminded political forces of the “political settlement” document that the main political powers adopted in 2018 and which calls for turning Iraq into a unified state, rather than one formed of various “components”.

Speaking at the same commemoration, he called on the forces opposed to the document to “show some responsibility” and adopt it.

Furthermore, he urged all political powers to support and strengthen the current government because weakening it will weaken the entire political process in the country.

The “political settlement,” he explained, is a “clear roadmap that was handed to head of the Hikma Movement Ammar al-Hakim when he was head of a number of allies Shiite groups.”

Top leaderships and all political groups agreed to the settlement, which was handed to the United Nations. The settlement was supposed to be implemented in 2018, remarked the speaker.

“Had we implemented it, we would have met several demands that were made to us,” he noted.

Hakim, for his part, rejected that Iraq become an arena of “foreign influence.”

“Iraq must be treated as an independent sovereign state,” he stressed at the commemoration

“This is not a choice, but a need imposed by the sacrifices of our people and their right to build their own future,” he said.

He therefore called for launching “comprehensive regional dialogue aimed at setting permanent paths for understanding and cooperation between regional countries.”

“Dialogue is a means to achieve peace and stability,” he underscored.



Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
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Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time, AFP reported.

The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

- 'A good estimate' -

The researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

"Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed," Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached "a good estimate" for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain's Open University, told AFP there was "inevitably a lot of uncertainty" when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was "admirable" that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

"Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

- 'Criticism' expected from both sides -

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems -- such as a heart attack -- could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection "might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease" in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that "criticism is going to come from different sides" about the new research.

She spoke out against the "obsession" of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that "we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”