Lebanon ‘Seriously’ Dealing with Israeli Threat to Maintain its Occupation of Southern Regions

Israeli tanks are seen on a road following the ceasefire between Israel and the Iran-backed group Hezbollah, near the Israel-Lebanon border in northern Israel, December 29, 2024. (Reuters)
Israeli tanks are seen on a road following the ceasefire between Israel and the Iran-backed group Hezbollah, near the Israel-Lebanon border in northern Israel, December 29, 2024. (Reuters)
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Lebanon ‘Seriously’ Dealing with Israeli Threat to Maintain its Occupation of Southern Regions

Israeli tanks are seen on a road following the ceasefire between Israel and the Iran-backed group Hezbollah, near the Israel-Lebanon border in northern Israel, December 29, 2024. (Reuters)
Israeli tanks are seen on a road following the ceasefire between Israel and the Iran-backed group Hezbollah, near the Israel-Lebanon border in northern Israel, December 29, 2024. (Reuters)

Israel announced that it may not withdraw from regions of southern Lebanon that it occupied during its latest war with Hezbollah, sparking alarm in the country.

Israeli media reported that Tel Aviv may inform Washington that it may not pull out from the South at the end of the 60-day deadline stipulated in the ceasefire agreement that ended the war.

Yedioth Ahronoth said Israel is hoping that the American officials will “understand’ this position, especially since Lebanon has not met its commitments towards the ceasefire.

Lebanese military sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that they have not received any information about the withdrawal.

Meanwhile, a Lebanese ministerial source stressed that the reports may be Israel’s attempt at “testing the waters” and perhaps an attempt “to pressure the Americans and Lebanon to complete the Lebanese army’s deployment in the South at a faster pace”.

The Lebanese government is “seriously” handling these reports and caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati is intensifying his internal and international contacts to warn against Israel’s attempt to remain in the South, added the source.

He will bring up this issue at cabinet after completing his talks, which include the US, it went on to say.

The US heads the committee tasked with monitoring the ceasefire.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem warned that his party was ready to retaliate to the Israeli violations of the truce.

“Our patience may run out during or after the end of the deadline,” he warned, while holding the Lebanese state responsible for implementing the ceasefire.

“The resistance (Hezbollah) is not bound by any time schedule. The resistance’s leadership decides when and how to resist,” he stated.

“Our morale remains high despite the wounds and pain,” he went on to say.

Moreover, he noted that throughout the 64-day war with Hezbollah, Israel only managed to advance “a few hundred meters” in Lebanon. “It failed to advance deeper thanks to the power of the resistance,” he declared. “We confronted an unprecedented attack, persevered and broke Israel’s might.”

Member of parliament Speaker Nabih Berri’s Liberation and Development bloc MP Qassem Hashem stressed that Lebanon will not allow Israel to remain an hour more in the South as soon as the deadline expires.

“We will be confronted by a very dangerous situation should Israel fail to withdraw from the territories it occupied,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

He noted Israel’s incursion into Syrian territories and Lebanon’s commitment to the ceasefire; and yet, it seems that Israel is keen on occupying more areas.

“Lebanon has not officially received any request to amend the pullout date. Should Israel remain in Lebanon beyond the deadline, then all international norms and treaties give Lebanon and its people the right to fully liberate their territories through all means necessary,” he stressed.

Hezbollah MP Mohammed Raad said Israel is “committing shameful violations to compensate for its losses on the field.”

“It is everyone’s duty to preserve national sovereignty,” he stated after meeting with Berri.

Talks with the speaker focused on the ceasefire committee’s work, as well as the upcoming presidential elections.

On the ground and after 40 days since the ceasefire took effect, Israel continued its violations of Lebanese sovereignty. It blew up houses in the towns of Hayyan, Markaba, al-Taybeh and Rab Thalathin.

Israeli artillery targeted the vicinity of the Imam al-Sadr sports complex west of Mays al-Jabal town.

Lebanon’s National News Agency reported that an Israeli unit advanced on the town of Bourj al-Mamlouk and took up position in the area, blocking a road with barbed wire.

The Lebanese army, in turn, closed three roads in the town that would give access to the Marjeyoun plain, thereby preventing any Israeli advance there.



Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
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Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time, AFP reported.

The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

- 'A good estimate' -

The researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

"Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed," Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached "a good estimate" for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain's Open University, told AFP there was "inevitably a lot of uncertainty" when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was "admirable" that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

"Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

- 'Criticism' expected from both sides -

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems -- such as a heart attack -- could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection "might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease" in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that "criticism is going to come from different sides" about the new research.

She spoke out against the "obsession" of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that "we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”