Residents of Syria's Quneitra are Frustrated by Lack of Action to Halt Israeli Advance

Israeli military vehicles in the Syrian city of Quneitra, as seen from the Israeli side of the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights, 13 December 2024. EPA/ATEF SAFADI
Israeli military vehicles in the Syrian city of Quneitra, as seen from the Israeli side of the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights, 13 December 2024. EPA/ATEF SAFADI
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Residents of Syria's Quneitra are Frustrated by Lack of Action to Halt Israeli Advance

Israeli military vehicles in the Syrian city of Quneitra, as seen from the Israeli side of the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights, 13 December 2024. EPA/ATEF SAFADI
Israeli military vehicles in the Syrian city of Quneitra, as seen from the Israeli side of the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights, 13 December 2024. EPA/ATEF SAFADI

A main road in the provincial capital of Quneitra in southern Syria was blocked with mounds of dirt, fallen palm trees and a metal pole that appeared to have once been a traffic light. On the other side of the barriers, an Israeli tank could be seen maneuvering in the middle of the street.
Israeli forces entered the area — which lies in a UN-patrolled buffer zone in the Golan Heights that was established by a 1974 ceasefire agreement between Syria and Israel — soon after the fall of President Bashar Assad last month in the country's 13-year civil war.
The Israeli military has also made incursions into Syrian territory outside of the buffer zone, sparking protests by local residents. They said the Israeli forces had demolished homes and prevented farmers from going to their fields in some areas. On at least two occasions, Israeli troops reportedly opened fire on protesters who approached them.
Residents of Quneitra, a seemingly serene bucolic expanse of small villages and olive groves, said they are frustrated, both by the Israeli advances and by the lack of action from Syria’s new authorities and the international community.
Rinata Fastas said that Israeli forces had raided the local government buildings but had not so far entered residential neighborhoods. Her house lies just inside of the newly blocked-off area in the provincial capital formerly called Baath City, after Assad's former ruling party, and now renamed Salam City.
She said she is afraid Israeli troops may advance farther or try to permanently occupy the area they have already taken. Israel still controls the Golan Heights that it captured from Syria during the 1967 Mideast war and later annexed. The international community, with the exception of the US, regards it as occupied.
Fastas said she understands that Syria, which is now trying to build its national institutions and army from scratch, is no position to militarily confront Israel.
“But why is no one in the new Syrian state coming out and talking about the violations that are happening in Quneitra province and against the rights of its people?” she asked.
The United Nations has accused Israel of violating the 1974 ceasefire agreement by entering the buffer zone.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said troops will stay on "until another arrangement is found that will ensure Israel’s security.” He was speaking from the snowy peak of Mount Hermon, Syria’s tallest mountain known as Jabal al Sheikh in Arabic, which has now been captured by Israeli forces.
An Israeli official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to comment on the matter, said the military will remain in the area it has taken until it is satisfied that the new Syrian authorities do not pose a danger to Israel.
The new Syrian government has lodged a complaint with the UN Security Council about Israeli airstrikes and advances into Syrian territory.
The country’s new de facto leader, Ahmad al-Sharaa, head of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, has also publicly said Syria is not seeking a military conflict with Israel and will not pose a threat to its neighbors or to the West.
In the meantime, residents of Quneitra have largely been left to fend for themselves.
In the village of Rafid, inside the buffer zone, locals said the Israeli military had demolished two civilian houses and a grove of trees as well as a former Syrian army outpost.
Mayor Omar Mahmoud Ismail said when the Israeli forces entered the village, an Israeli officer greeted him and told him, “I am your friend.”
“I told him, ‘You are not my friend, and if you were, you wouldn’t enter like this,’" Ismail said.
Locals who organized a protest were met with Israeli fire
In Dawaya, a village outside the buffer zone, 18-year-old Abdelrahman Khaled al-Aqqa was lying on a mattress in his family home Sunday, still recovering after being shot in both legs. Al-Aqqa said he joined about 100 people from the area on Dec. 25 in protest against the Israeli incursion, chanting “Syria is free, Israel get out!”
“We didn’t have any weapons, we were just there in the clothes we were wearing,” he said. “But when we got close to them, they started shooting at us.”
Six protesters were wounded, according to residents and media reports. Another man was injured on Dec. 20 in a similar incident in the village of Maariyah. The Israeli army said at the time that it had fired because the man was quickly approaching and ignored calls to stop.
The Israeli military did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the Dec. 25 incident.
Adel Subhi al-Ali, a local Sunni religious official, sat with his 21-year-old son, Moutasem, who was recovering after being shot in the stomach in the Dec. 25 protest. He was driven first to a local hospital that did not have the capacity to treat him, and then to Damascus where he underwent surgery.
When he saw the Israeli tanks moving in, “We felt that an occupation is occupying our land. So we had to defend it, even though we didn’t have weapons, ... It is impossible for them to settle here,” al-Ali said.
Since the day of the protest, the Israeli army has not returned to the area, he said.
Al-Ali called for the international community to “pressure Israel to return to what was agreed upon with the former regime,” referring to the 1974 ceasefire agreement, and to return the Golan Heights to Syria.
But he acknowledged that Syria has little leverage.
“We are starting from zero, we need to build a state,” al-Ali said, echoing Syria's new leaders. “We are not ready as a country now to open wars with another country."



Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
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Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time, AFP reported.

The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

- 'A good estimate' -

The researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

"Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed," Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached "a good estimate" for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain's Open University, told AFP there was "inevitably a lot of uncertainty" when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was "admirable" that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

"Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

- 'Criticism' expected from both sides -

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems -- such as a heart attack -- could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection "might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease" in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that "criticism is going to come from different sides" about the new research.

She spoke out against the "obsession" of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that "we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”