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Türkiye Warns of Plans to Divide Syria into Four Mini-States

Two fighters from Turkish-backed factions in southern Manbij, Syria (AFP)
Two fighters from Turkish-backed factions in southern Manbij, Syria (AFP)
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Türkiye Warns of Plans to Divide Syria into Four Mini-States

Two fighters from Turkish-backed factions in southern Manbij, Syria (AFP)
Two fighters from Turkish-backed factions in southern Manbij, Syria (AFP)

Concerns are mounting in Türkiye over potential scenarios in Syria following the fall of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime.
The warnings come as clashes persist between Turkish-backed factions and the US-supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in eastern Aleppo, alongside ongoing Turkish airstrikes targeting SDF positions east of the Euphrates.
Devlet Bahçeli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and ally of Türkiye’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the People’s Alliance, has sounded the alarm over plans being drawn up for Syria ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20.
Bahçeli cautioned that developments in Syria could escalate quickly, emphasizing the risks of instability in the region as Türkiye presses its campaign against Kurdish-led forces it considers a threat.
Fatih Erbakan, leader of the New Welfare Party, has voiced concerns over developments in Syria, warning of a potential partition of the war-torn country into four separate states.
Erbakan speculated that plans might be underway to establish an autonomous region along Türkiye’s border for the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its military arm, the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), the largest components of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Such a move, he cautioned, would pose a significant security challenge for Türkiye, which views the PYD and YPG as extensions of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).
Erbakan raised alarms over reports of negotiations to partition Syria into four autonomous regions.
In a televised interview, Erbakan cited reports in US, Israeli, and French media suggesting efforts to divide Syria and establish autonomous zones, including one for Kurdish groups along Türkiye’s border.
Erbakan warned that after the destabilization of Iraq and Syria, Iran and Türkiye could be next, urging Ankara to act decisively to prevent Syria’s division and preserve its territorial integrity.

 

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After US Exemption, UN Says More Significant Syria Sanctions Work Needed

A general view shows Damascus from Mount Qasioun, after one month since the ousting of Syria's Bashar al-Assad, in Damascus, Syria, January 7, 2025. (Reuters)
A general view shows Damascus from Mount Qasioun, after one month since the ousting of Syria's Bashar al-Assad, in Damascus, Syria, January 7, 2025. (Reuters)
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After US Exemption, UN Says More Significant Syria Sanctions Work Needed

A general view shows Damascus from Mount Qasioun, after one month since the ousting of Syria's Bashar al-Assad, in Damascus, Syria, January 7, 2025. (Reuters)
A general view shows Damascus from Mount Qasioun, after one month since the ousting of Syria's Bashar al-Assad, in Damascus, Syria, January 7, 2025. (Reuters)

A US sanctions exemption for transactions with governing institutions in Syria is welcome, but "much more significant work ... will inevitably be necessary," the UN special envoy on Syria, Geir Pedersen, told the Security Council on Wednesday.

After 13 years of civil war, Syria's President Bashar al-Assad was ousted in a lightening offensive by opposition forces led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group a month ago.

The US, Britain, the European Union and others imposed tough sanctions on Syria after a crackdown by Assad on pro-democracy protests in 2011 that spiraled into war. But the new reality in Syria has been further complicated by sanctions on HTS - and some leaders - for its days as an al-Qaeda affiliate.

"I welcome the recent issuance of a new temporary General License by the United States government. But much more significant work in fully addressing sanctions and designations will inevitably be necessary," Pedersen told the council.

The US on Monday issued a sanctions exemption, known as a general license, for transactions with governing institutions in Syria for six months in an effort to ease the flow of humanitarian assistance and allow some energy transactions.

"The United States welcomes positive messages from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, but will ultimately look for progress in actions, not words," deputy US Ambassador to the UN Dorothy Camille Shea told the Security Council.

The foreign ministry in Damascus on Wednesday welcomed the US move and called for a full lifting of restrictions to support Syria's recovery.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said earlier on Wednesday that European Union sanctions on Syria that obstruct the delivery of humanitarian aid and hinder the country's recovery could be lifted swiftly.

Russia's UN Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia criticized the sanctions imposed on Syria by Washington and others, adding: "As a result, the Syrian economy is under extreme pressure and is not able to cope with the challenges facing the country." Russia was an Assad ally throughout the war.

'END THE SUFFERING'

Formerly known as Nusra Front, HTS was al-Qaeda's official wing in Syria until breaking ties in 2016. Along with unilateral measures, the group has also been on the UN Security Council al-Qaeda and ISIS sanctions list for more than a decade, subjected to a global assets freeze and arms embargo.

There are no UN sanctions on Syria over the civil war.

Syria's UN Ambassador Koussay Aldahhak was appointed a year ago by Assad's government but told the council on Wednesday that he was speaking for the caretaker authorities.

"It is high time to end the suffering, to enable Syrians to live in security and prosperity, to live a dignified life in their country, to build a better future for their country," Aldahhak said.

"For this reason, we call upon the United Nations and its member states to immediately and fully lift the unilateral coercive measures to provide the necessary financing to meet humanitarian needs and recover basic services," he said.

Pedersen said he is seeking to work with the caretaker authorities in Syria "on how the nascent and important ideas and steps so far articulated and initiated could be developed towards a credible and inclusive political transition."

Pedersen said attacks on Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity must stop, specifically calling out Israel.

As Assad's government crumbled towards the end of last year, Israel launched a series of strikes against Syrian military infrastructure and weapons manufacturing sites to prevent them falling into the hands of enemies.

"Reports of the IDF using live ammunition against civilians, displacement and destruction of civilian infrastructure are also very worrying," Pedersen said. "Such violations, along with Israeli airstrikes in other parts of Syria – reported even last week in Aleppo – could further jeopardize the prospects for an orderly political transition."