Franjieh Withdraws from Lebanon’s Presidential Race, Backs Army Commander

 People look at a ballot box displayed inside the parliament building, a day ahead of Lebanon's parliament's attempt to elect a new head of state in downtown Beirut, Lebanon, January 8, 2025. (Reuters)
People look at a ballot box displayed inside the parliament building, a day ahead of Lebanon's parliament's attempt to elect a new head of state in downtown Beirut, Lebanon, January 8, 2025. (Reuters)
TT

Franjieh Withdraws from Lebanon’s Presidential Race, Backs Army Commander

 People look at a ballot box displayed inside the parliament building, a day ahead of Lebanon's parliament's attempt to elect a new head of state in downtown Beirut, Lebanon, January 8, 2025. (Reuters)
People look at a ballot box displayed inside the parliament building, a day ahead of Lebanon's parliament's attempt to elect a new head of state in downtown Beirut, Lebanon, January 8, 2025. (Reuters)

Head of the Marada Movement Suleiman Franjieh announced on Wednesday that he was withdrawing from Lebanon’s presidential election and backing the candidacy of army commander Joseph Aoun.

Lebanon is holding the much-awaited election on Thursday.

In a post on the X platform, Franjieh said: "Now that the conditions are ripe for the election of a president tomorrow, I am withdrawing my candidacy, which has never been an obstacle in the electoral process."

He added that Aoun "enjoys the qualities that would preserve the standing of the country’s top post."

He hoped "the nation would overcome this stage with unity, diligence and responsibility."

Parliament will try to elect a president on Thursday, with officials seeing better chances of success in a political landscape shaken by Israel's war with Hezbollah and the toppling of the group's ally Bashar al-Assad in neighboring Syria.

The post, reserved for a Maronite Christian in the country's sectarian power-sharing system, has been vacant since Michel Aoun's term ended in October 2022. The former president is not related to army commander Aoun.

None of the political groups in the 128-seat parliament have enough seats to impose their choice, and they have so far been unable to agree on a consensus candidate. The vote marks the first test of Lebanon's power balance since the Iran-backed Shiite group Hezbollah - which propelled its then Christian ally Aoun to the presidency in 2016 - emerged badly pummeled from the war with Israel.

The Lebanese parliament building a day before a session to elect the Lebanese president, in Beirut, Lebanon, 08 January 2025. (EPA)

It takes place against a backdrop of historic change in the wider Middle East, where the Assad-led Syrian state exercised sway over Lebanon for decades, both directly and through allies such as Hezbollah.

Before Franjieh withdrew from the race and reflecting the shifts, Hezbollah and its ally the Shiite Amal Movement led by parliament Speaker Nabih Berri dropped their insistence on Franjieh, their declared candidate for the last two years, and said they are ready to go with a less divisive figure, three senior sources familiar with their thinking said.

Candidates in focus include army commander General Joseph Aoun - said by Lebanese politicians to enjoy US approval - Jihad Azour, a senior International Monetary Fund official who formerly served as finance minister, and Major-General Elias al-Baysari - head of General Security, a state security agency.

Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati said he felt happy because "God willing, tomorrow we will have a new president", according to a statement from his office.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot also expressed hope in comments to France Inter radio, saying the election was "a prerequisite for the continuation of this dynamic of peace" and also for Lebanon's economic and social recovery.

However, two of the sources and an analyst cautioned that it was not yet certain any candidate would be elected. To win, a candidate must secure 86 votes in a first round, or 65 in a second round.

Rice is thrown on Newly-appointed General Joseph Aoun (C) as army commander, upon his arrival at his family's house in Sin El Fil, northeast of Beirut, Lebanon March 8, 2017. (Reuters)

‘National awakening’

Joseph Aoun would still need 86 votes because his election requires a constitutional amendment, as he is a still-serving state employee, Berri has said.

A State Department spokesperson said it was "up to Lebanon to choose its next president, not the United States or any external actor".

"We have been consistent in our efforts to press Lebanon to elect a new president, which we see as important to strengthening Lebanon’s political institutions," the spokesperson said.

Hezbollah official Wafiq Safa said last week there was "no veto" on Aoun. But the sources said Hezbollah, designated a terrorist group by the United States, will not support him.

Aoun has a key role in shoring up the ceasefire brokered by Washington and Paris in November. The terms require the Lebanese military to deploy into south Lebanon as Israeli troops and Hezbollah withdraw forces.

Still reeling from a financial collapse in 2019, Lebanon desperately needs foreign aid to rebuild. Much of the damage is in Shiite majority areas.

Hezbollah, its supply line to Iran severed by Assad's ousting, has urged Arab and international support for Lebanon.

Lebanon's Maronite Bishops called on lawmakers to elect a president, urging a "national awakening".



Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
TT

Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time, AFP reported.

The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

- 'A good estimate' -

The researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

"Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed," Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached "a good estimate" for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain's Open University, told AFP there was "inevitably a lot of uncertainty" when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was "admirable" that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

"Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

- 'Criticism' expected from both sides -

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems -- such as a heart attack -- could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection "might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease" in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that "criticism is going to come from different sides" about the new research.

She spoke out against the "obsession" of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that "we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”