The US military in Iraq is shifting its posture amid rising tensions between Iran and Israel, even as Tehran grows frustrated with Baghdad’s reluctance to take sides.
Iranian National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani recently left the Iraqi capital without what he described as “reassuring answers” to Tehran’s request for help in tightening border security in the event of conflict.
According to well-informed sources, the adjustments underway do not represent a departure from the US–Iraq agreement reached last September, which stipulates the withdrawal of several hundred American troops by September 2025, with the remainder scheduled to depart by the end of 2026. What is more likely, they added, is that Washington’s advisory role will ensure a continued, even if reduced, US presence in Iraq even after the drawdown.
Realignment of Forces
A US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, stressed that Washington is not implementing fundamental changes to its presence in Iraq. He said that any expected incidents over the coming months would remain within the framework of the 2024 security agreement with Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s government.
Still, the official confirmed that US forces are being repositioned across bases in Iraq and the broader region. “It’s not a large-scale operation,” he said, “but it responds carefully to a new security risk map in Iraq and its surroundings.” He declined to elaborate on the nature of those risks or their geographic location.
Political sources in Baghdad, however, suggested that Tehran has privately signaled Iraqi factions about the possibility of a new confrontation with Israel and the United States. Yet many in Iraq’s political class appear hesitant to align with Iran’s more confrontational posture. Earlier this month, Asharq al-Awsat reported that Iranian envoys had urged Iraqi militias to resist disarmament and prepare for renewed hostilities.
American officials believe that their troop movements are partly a response to Tehran’s recent maneuvers - both political and military - including attempts to “rebuild military capabilities.” A leaked internal document dated July 27 revealed that Kataib Hezbollah, one of the most powerful Iraqi militias, has been preparing for possible escalation inside Iraq or beyond its borders.
Activity at Ain al-Asad
In recent weeks, the Ain al-Asad airbase west of Baghdad has seen a flurry of activity. Sources reported that heavy logistical equipment was packed and stored there, while sensitive assets such as early-warning systems and radar units were transferred to undisclosed locations, believed to be other US bases in the region.
Though the exact destinations remain unclear, officials suggest the redeployment is part of the broader repositioning strategy. The movement of critical air-defense systems underscores Washington’s concern about the possibility of sudden flare-ups.
An Iraqi official confirmed to Asharq al-Awsat that the US withdrawal timetable remains unchanged and that no acceleration has been discussed despite regional turmoil. “Even the 12-day war did not alter the terms or schedule,” the official noted, referring to the brief but intense confrontation earlier this summer.
A senior political adviser in Baghdad argued that Washington is unlikely to embrace a full departure under current conditions. “Iraq may no longer offer the Americans a lucrative strategic opportunity, but it remains a zone of geopolitical leverage in their contest with Iran,” he said.
Iran Frustrated in Baghdad
While Washington pressures Baghdad to resist legislation that would further entrench the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), Tehran has struggled to rally Iraq’s official institutions. This imbalance of influence was evident during Larijani’s recent visit.
Iran’s security chief proposed Iraqi assistance in securing the shared border, citing evidence that fighters, equipment, and technology had crossed into Iran during and before the 12-day conflict with Israel. But Baghdad pushed back, telling him bluntly that Iraq lacks the capacity to succeed where even Tehran’s formidable intelligence and military structures had fallen short. Sources said Larijani “was not pleased” by the response.
On August 11, Larijani and Iraqi National Security Adviser Qasim al-Araji signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at tightening border control and curbing smuggling. The agreement drew objections from Washington. Araji later defended it in a meeting with US chargé d’affaires Steven Fagin, insisting that Iraq acts “on the basis of its supreme national interests” and as a fully sovereign state.
