Iraqi politicians are sounding the alarm that an accelerated US military drawdown could leave the country exposed to a fresh confrontation between Iran and Israel, after American convoys began shifting from a major base in western Iraq to the Kurdistan region.
Military columns moved late Monday from the sprawling Ain al-Asad airbase in the al-Anbar province towards the Harir airbase near Erbil, officials said, marking the first stage of a phased withdrawal of the US-led coalition against ISIS.
Under a deal with Baghdad, the coalition will start pulling out in September and complete its exit from Harir by the end of 2026.
Iraq’s government has cast the drawdown as a milestone.
Sabah al-Numan, spokesman for the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, called the departure “one of the government’s greatest achievements,” proof that Iraq can now confront terrorism and maintain security without foreign support.
“The withdrawal would not have been possible without intensive political efforts and the prime minister’s determination to close this file completely,” Numan said.
He cited improved intelligence capacity and investment in advanced weapons as evidence Iraq can “hold the security file in full and deter any threat.”
Hussein Allawi, adviser to Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, said moving US troops north would not weaken Baghdad’s security because of reinforced coordination with Kurdish forces. Two joint brigades already operate along sensitive lines between the federal and regional authorities, he added.
Allawi confirmed the coalition mission in Baghdad and Ain al-Asad would end in September, shifting relations with member states to “normal bilateral defense ties.”
Yet, the redeployment has raised concerns in parliament and beyond.
Yasser Watout, a member of the parliamentary defense and security committee, questioned why Washington was leaving Ain al-Asad “at such a sensitive moment, with the region going through sharp political and security turbulence.”
Watout linked the timing to US opposition to a draft law formalizing Iraq’s pro-Iran Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF).
He also pointed to Iran’s recent border security memorandum with Baghdad, signed by Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s National Security Council.
“It is not in Iraq’s interest that the coalition withdraws now. We will raise these concerns with the competent security authorities,” Watout said. He added that some Iraqi commanders share fears the move could destabilize security.
Some Iraqi politicians see the troop movements and US-Iraqi tensions as coinciding with a tactical adjustment in Tehran’s regional playbook.
A veteran Shiite politician, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Larijani appeared to have taken over the Iraq file from Esmail Qaani, commander of Iran’s Quds Force.
“Qaani never played the same role as Qassem Soleimani,” the source told Asharq Al-Awsat, referring to his predecessor who was killed in a 2020 US drone strike in Baghdad.
“Larijani’s emergence suggests Iran is bracing for a new confrontation with the Americans, and Iraq could be one of its arenas.”
He said Tehran’s signature on the border memorandum reflected fears the US might stage attacks from inside Iraq with Israeli support from outside.
