Rival militias are massing in the Libyan capital, Tripoli, exposing sharp ideological rifts and a scramble for influence inside state institutions, fueling public fears that the city could soon descend into another round of fighting.
Armed groups aligned with the defense and interior ministries of interim Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah’s Government of National Unity (GNU) dominate western and southern districts of Tripoli. Eastern parts are held by their adversaries, mainly the Special Deterrence Force, known as al-Radaa. Between them, militias from the coastal city of Misrata control the tense buffer zones.
Analysts and local reports say the confrontation is not only about territory but also about ideology and control of strategic assets. Dbeibah has aligned himself with former grand mufti Sadiq al-Ghariani, a figure closely associated with political Islam in Libya. Ghariani, who has long voiced support for the Muslim Brotherhood, has backed Dbeibah against al-Radaa through a media campaign.
Mohamed al-Tarhouni, a Libyan military analyst, told Asharq Al-Awsat that fighters linked to the former Benghazi and Derna rebel councils are now embedded in two GNU-backed brigades: the 444 Brigade, commanded by Mahmoud Hamza, and the 111 Brigade, led by Abdel Salam al-Zoubi. Both groups fought against Libyan National Army (LNA) in the country’s east during the war on “terrorism” years ago.
Dbeibah also relies on the General Security Force led by Abdullah al-Trabelsi, brother of Interior Minister Imad al-Trabelsi. Though not ideologically driven, analysts describe this alliance as part of Libya’s growing pattern of “family rule.”
On the opposing side, al-Radaa, commanded by Abdelraouf Kara, follows the hardline Madkhali Salafi current, which regards Islamist groups as its ideological enemies. Other factions, such as the “Shield Battalion” in Tajoura, have a history of shifting alliances – at times clashing with al-Radaa, while at other moments aligning against common threats.
The fragile balance was jolted in May when forces loyal to Dbeibah stormed the headquarters of the Stability Support Apparatus after its leader Abdelghani al-Kikli, known as Ghneiwa, was killed. His group, once powerful, has since waned.
The struggle also centers on sovereign and economic assets. Dbeibah, analysts say, wants to consolidate his grip over government institutions, the central bank and state companies.
According to Washington’s Middle East Institute, militias have entrenched themselves into Tripoli’s economy, operating as a cartel that profits from smuggling, subsidized goods and state contracts – a hallmark of Libya’s “war economy.”
Though no official figures exist, international estimates suggest Tripoli’s armed groups can rapidly mobilize thousands of fighters with armored vehicles, air defenses and heavy weapons. Dbeibah’s brigades, especially the 444 and 111, are seen as the best equipped, benefiting from billions in defense funding. Reports that his forces deployed drones in May – possibly imported from Ukraine – have raised questions about whether such weapons will feature in future battles.
By contrast, al-Radaa is viewed as more disciplined, with thousands of fighters, light and medium weapons, and special intervention units inside the capital.
Reinforcements from Misrata and other western towns have bolstered Dbeibah’s camp. Non-official estimates put their strength at more than 17,000 fighters, including the Joint Operations Force led by Omar Bogdada.
Meanwhile, the LNA of eastern commander Khalifa Haftar is watching from afar. Analysts at the Libyan Center for Security and Military Studies say Haftar is unlikely to intervene directly, given how the balance of power has shifted since his failed 2019 assault on Tripoli.
There are growing reports of a possible reconciliation initiative brokered by the Presidential Council. But political analyst Mohamed al-Ameen warned that without concrete steps to demilitarize the capital and impose the rule of law, any deal would be “cosmetic and doomed to collapse.”
