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Five Takeaways on Netanyahu’s Moves after Qatar Strike

Five Takeaways on Netanyahu’s Moves after Qatar Strike
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Five Takeaways on Netanyahu’s Moves after Qatar Strike

Five Takeaways on Netanyahu’s Moves after Qatar Strike

Many details of Israel’s attempt to assassinate Hamas leaders in Qatar will become clearer once the full results emerge.

But even as Israeli officials began acknowledging disappointment that Hamas’ leadership survived, they stressed the operation was meant to yield “deterrence gains” and pointed to what they call the “Munich approach,” a doctrine dating back to 1972 when Israel hunted down members of the Palestinian Black September group behind the killing of 11 Israeli athletes at the Munich Olympics.

Today, more than half a century later and after over 63,000 deaths in Gaza, Israel says it is striking back for the October 7, 2023 Hamas-led assault.

‘Munich in our era’

Israeli leaders hailed the Doha raid as a precision mission before its outcome became clear, comparing it to the killings of Hezbollah commanders and Iranian Revolutionary Guard officers. They spoke of “surgical strikes” involving 15 fighter jets, refueling aircraft, and precision-guided munitions.

But after Hamas declared its leaders had survived, Israeli officials shifted to urging patience while DNA tests confirmed casualties, before admitting privately to frustration. Military commentators framed the setback as a tactical hiccup while still claiming strategic benefits: Hamas leaders, they argued, would now feel hunted and restricted.

Former Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar reportedly described the operation as “Munich in our era,” echoing Golda Meir’s 1972 order to eliminate those behind the Olympic attack. Netanyahu, for his part, said Israel had targeted Hamas leaders “in the same place they celebrated October 7” - a statement contradicted by evidence that the group’s thanksgiving prayers took place in Türkiye, not Qatar.

A pre-approved hit list

According to Israeli media, the decision to assassinate Hamas’ top echelon was taken on Oct. 8, 2023. The Shin Bet was tasked with the campaign, which began with the killing of Saleh al-Arouri in Beirut, followed by Ismail Haniyeh, Yahya al-Sinwar, Mohammed Deif and Mohammed al-Sinwar.

Last week, army chief Eyal Zamir warned Hamas leaders abroad they would not be safe. Shortly after, Netanyahu ordered the Doha strike once intelligence indicated Hamas figures were meeting in the Qatari capital. Some senior officials, including the army’s representative to hostage talks, opposed the timing, fearing it would derail negotiations over Israeli captives. Netanyahu overruled them.

Multiple objectives

Analysts say the Qatar operation was designed to achieve several goals: reinforcing Israel’s image as the dominant military power in the Middle East, showcasing its reach against adversaries from Hezbollah to the Houthis

US angle and blame game

Netanyahu initially claimed the Doha strike was an exclusively Israeli operation, a line Israeli officials said was pressed by Washington to limit American exposure. US officials, according to Israeli leaks, were briefed but later distanced themselves once Arab outrage spread.

Seeking to deflect responsibility for the mission’s failure, Netanyahu’s allies suggested US President Donald Trump tipped off Qatar about the raid, allowing Hamas leaders to flee moments before the bombs hit.

Political fallout

Israeli sources now fear Trump could use the episode to recalibrate his Arab diplomacy, potentially demanding concessions from Netanyahu to reassure allies like Qatar that Washington does not condone strikes on their soil. Such a shift could revive pressure for a ceasefire and political talks.

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Arab World

Iraq’s New Government Faces Unpredictable Prospects

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani stands beside Nouri al-Maliki during a religious event in Baghdad (Government Media)
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani stands beside Nouri al-Maliki during a religious event in Baghdad (Government Media)
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Iraq’s New Government Faces Unpredictable Prospects

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani stands beside Nouri al-Maliki during a religious event in Baghdad (Government Media)
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani stands beside Nouri al-Maliki during a religious event in Baghdad (Government Media)

Tension rippled through Iraq’s ruling Shiite alliance after authorities briefly listed Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthi group as terrorist organizations, then swiftly reversed the move, at a time when debate over the next government is intensifying.

The decision and the rapid retreat from it revived scrutiny of a long running point of friction between United States pressure on Baghdad and Iranian influence in the country.

Iraq’s presidency said on Friday it had no knowledge of the designation of the Houthis and Hezbollah as terrorist entities and no role in freezing their assets.

It said such decisions are not sent to the presidency and that it only reviews and endorses laws approved by parliament and presidential decrees.

The statement added that decisions by the cabinet, the committee that freezes terrorist assets, and anti money laundering directives are not referred to the presidency for approval and that it learned of the designation only through social media, prompting the clarification.

The listing appeared in the 17 November 2025 edition of the official Gazette, which cited the government’s counterterrorism obligations under a series of United Nations Security Council resolutions.

Authorities then moved to roll back the designation after a statement and a document from the Central Bank of Iraq confirmed that Baghdad’s approval had been limited to entities and individuals tied to ISIS and Al-Qaeda only.

Tension inside the Coordination Framework

Political figures and legal experts said the central bank operates as an independent institution and does not fall under direct government control.

But they said a corrective step taken by outgoing Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, including public clarification and an urgent investigation, escalated the dispute inside the Coordination Framework as negotiations over the next premier intensify.

Although the alliance issued no unified position, parties and factions close to it accused the government of making a deliberate move meant to signal alignment with the demands of the administration of President Donald Trump.

They made the accusation as presidential envoy Mark Savaya was expected in Baghdad after a similar visit by Washington’s envoy to Syria and Lebanon.

Sudani, who faces mounting pressure within his coalition and was even removed from an internal WhatsApp group by some Coordination Framework leaders according to political sources, issued a brief statement saying there would be no compromise on Iraq’s support for what he called peoples’ rights and sacrifices, a veiled reference to Hezbollah and the Houthis.

Former deputy prime minister Bahaa Araji, a political ally of Sudani, defended him. He said the incident was a technical error in a decision issued by a committee tied to the central bank which he described as an independent institution not subject to government will.

He said on X that the mistake would be corrected and that the investigation would prevent opportunists from exploiting it politically.

Impact on government formation

The episode unfolded as the Coordination Framework attempts to settle on a nominee for prime minister, amid clear divisions over whether to keep Sudani for a second term or replace him.

The uproar over what is now known as the central bank error has further complicated the alliance’s internal bargaining and opened the door to unexpected scenarios, political sources said.

At the same time, Shiite armed factions escalated their criticism. Ali al-Asadi, head of the political bureau of Harakat al-Nujaba, said listing the two groups as terrorists was an act of betrayal.

He also claimed Iraq had nominated US President Donald Trump for the Nobel Prize, which he called an insult to sacrifices. He said such a government does not represent the Iraqi people and posted a hashtag calling the move a death sentence for a second term.

The incident, which began as an administrative oversight and morphed into a political crisis, underscored the fragility of the balance Baghdad tries to maintain between its ties with the United States, its main financial and military partner, and its relations with groups aligned with Iran.

Arab World

Trump’s Phase Two Remarks Revive Questions Over Gaza Article 17

Palestinians fill water containers at the Nuseirat camp for displaced families in central Gaza (AFP)
Palestinians fill water containers at the Nuseirat camp for displaced families in central Gaza (AFP)
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Trump’s Phase Two Remarks Revive Questions Over Gaza Article 17

Palestinians fill water containers at the Nuseirat camp for displaced families in central Gaza (AFP)
Palestinians fill water containers at the Nuseirat camp for displaced families in central Gaza (AFP)

A brief and cryptic remark by US President Donald Trump about modifying phase two of the Gaza ceasefire agreement, offered without any details, has stirred questions over how the accord will be executed.

Analysts say the comment points to a possible change in implementing the deal’s provisions rather than adjusting its core terms.

Instead of moving toward an Israeli withdrawal from the enclave, where Israel controls about 55% of the territory, and the disarmament of Hamas, they expect Washington to pivot to article 17, which allows for unilateral application of the peace plan without adhering to its sequencing.

They said phase two will be difficult to reach while key issues remain unresolved, including forming a peace council, establishing a Gaza administrative committee and deploying a stabilization force.

Article 17 of the ceasefire agreement, which took effect on October 10, states that if Hamas delays or rejects the proposal, the measures listed above, including an expanded aid operation, will be carried out in areas free of terrorism that the Israeli army hands over to the international stabilization force.

The peace document signed in October by Hamas and Israel covered only the provisions of what is known as phase one.

This includes an initial truce, the withdrawal of Israeli forces, conditions for exchanging detainees and prisoners and facilitating humanitarian aid. No formal agreement has been reached on phase two, which relates to governing Gaza after the war.

Trump said on Thursday that phase two of his Gaza peace plan will be modified very soon, amid growing concern over its stalled implementation. He did not specify what the changes would entail.

Saeed Okasha, an Israeli affairs analyst at the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, said Trump may be considering an adjustment anchored in article 17 to prevent the agreement from collapsing.

He said the article opens the way for dividing Gaza into an old Gaza and a new Gaza, an idea recently circulated by US envoy Steve Witkoff in several meetings last month.

Okasha said the amendment remains possible since the agreement was endorsed by the United Nations Security Council last month.

He said article 17 could be reactivated on grounds that Hamas has not met requirements for disarmament or other commitments, adding that such a shift could create a situation of neither war nor peace.

Ayman Al-Raqab, a Palestinian political analyst, said the lack of clarity over Trump’s intended changes has fueled concerns that any adjustment may entrench a division of Gaza at a time when Israel seeks to maintain a long term presence in the enclave. He said this aligns with proposals characterizing a new Gaza and an old Gaza.

Amid the uncertainty, the Axios news site reported that Trump plans to announce the start of phase two and unveil the new governance structure for Gaza before December 25. The site quoted two US officials as saying the formation of the international force and the governing body is in its final stages.

They expect Trump to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu before the end of December to discuss the steps.

Al-Raqab said phase two still faces hurdles, including the absence of a peace council and a technocratic government, the lack of a police force to assume its duties and the pending formation of a stabilization force. He said no major moves are likely before January.

Okasha said he sees no immediate prospect other than Israel expanding the areas it controls in the enclave to about 60% as long as implementation of the agreement remains stalled, though without a major escalation similar to what Israel is carrying out in southern Lebanon.

Several days ago, the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth reported on an Israeli plan to resettle about two million Palestinians in new areas under Israeli control east of the Yellow Line and to empty areas held by Hamas of all civilians while pursuing Hamas members there over time.

British newspaper The Telegraph also quoted Western diplomats as saying the US plan for Gaza carries the risk of dividing the enclave permanently, entrenching the presence of Israeli forces in the devastated strip.

About a week ago, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty underscored during a meeting in Barcelona with European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas the importance of preserving the territorial unity of Palestine, including the West Bank and Gaza, and rejected any measures that would entrench separation or undermine prospects for a two state solution.

Abdelatty reiterated that position on Wednesday, saying, “There is no place for talk of dividing Gaza. Gaza is an integrated territorial unit and is an inseparable part of the future Palestinian state together with the West Bank, including East Jerusalem. These are binding international legitimacy resolutions and certainly must be upheld.”

He said consultations continue with relevant parties on forming a Gaza administrative committee made up of technocrats to manage affairs on the ground.

Okasha said Egyptian efforts will continue to prevent any division of Gaza or any amendment that would undermine the agreement, adding that various scenarios remain possible as developments unfold around Trump’s plan.

Arab World

Abu Shabab Successor Pledges to Keep Up Resistance to Hamas

A photo of Yasser Abu Shabab published by Israel's Yedioth Ahronoth. (File photo)
A photo of Yasser Abu Shabab published by Israel's Yedioth Ahronoth. (File photo)
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Abu Shabab Successor Pledges to Keep Up Resistance to Hamas

A photo of Yasser Abu Shabab published by Israel's Yedioth Ahronoth. (File photo)
A photo of Yasser Abu Shabab published by Israel's Yedioth Ahronoth. (File photo)

Hamas was taken by surprise by news of the killing of Yasser Abu Shabab, the self-styled leader of armed groups operating east of Rafah in southern Gaza.

The movement stayed silent until his men confirmed he had been shot dead, while Israel’s account of the incident continued to stir questions amid firm denials from several sides. Ghassan al-Dahini, who is expected to take over the Popular Forces, vowed to press on in defying Hamas.

Hamas’s position

Hamas sources told Asharq al-Awsat that the movement had no involvement in the incident and learned of it with surprise, even though it has a clear policy of using force against anyone who collaborates with Israel.

The sources said the movement also has high level instructions to deal in particular with armed cells that serve Israel, including Abu Shabab’s group and others.

According to the sources, Hamas’s leadership decided to withhold comment until the circumstances of the killing became clear. Once the details were verified, the movement issued a statement.

The sources acknowledged that Hamas had hoped Abu Shabab would be killed by his own fighters who remained in the Rafah tunnels throughout the past period, but at the same time conceded that his death would have far reaching implications for Israel’s reliance on such armed groups. The sources said these groups have failed to achieve Israel’s aims, whether in challenging Hamas’s strength in Gaza, taking control of large areas or even sowing Palestinian divisions.

In its statement on Abu Shabab’s killing, Hamas said his fate was inevitable for anyone “who betrayed his people and homeland and accepted being a tool in Israel’s hands”. It accused him of criminal acts that represented “a clear break with national and social norms”. The movement praised families, tribes and clans that disowned Abu Shabab and anyone who had cooperated with Israel.

Israel, Hamas said, “had failed to protect its agents and would not be able to protect any of its collaborators”. It added that “anyone who undermines the security of his own people and serves the enemy will end up in the dustbin of history and lose any respect or standing within his community”.

The Israeli account

The Popular Forces, which Abu Shabab headed, confirmed he was killed while trying to break up a family dispute between members of the Abu Seneima clan. It stressed that Hamas had nothing to do with his death, describing the movement as “too weak to harm” the general commander or his comrades.

The group did not address the Israeli version that surprised many Palestinians. That account claimed Abu Shabab was beaten and kicked to death by his own escorts and bodyguards amid disputes over positions, money and his cooperation with Israel.

Hamas sources said the Israeli narrative amounted to a clear abandonment of those who work for it and was designed to tarnish Abu Shabab and the circumstances of his death in a way that serves Israel’s current interest in ending the phenomenon of such armed groups.

Israel had nurtured and supported them, the sources said, but now understands they have little value in influencing Hamas’s grip on Gaza and have become a burden, having failed to deliver what Israel sought, which was to fracture Palestinian society and take control of wide areas.

The sources estimated that Israel is now keen to eliminate Abu Shabab and others, particularly under continued United States pressure to move to the second phase of the war. That shift would reduce the areas under Israeli control in Gaza, where these groups are present. Israel had hoped they would serve as a governing force for the enclave.

Yedioth Ahronoth reported on Friday that Abu Shabab’s killing, after some had portrayed him as a rising force challenging Hamas’s rule, paints a more troubling picture.

It said official Israeli reports point to a silent and brutal war within his armed faction and that his killing was not a routine incident but a moment that exposed the collapse of Israel’s idea of forming a local alternative force to fill the civilian and security vacuum left by Hamas.

Although the newspaper had been first to report the security establishment’s version that he died from a severe beating, it later noted that he was shot during a brawl between his men and local families that then escalated into internal disputes.

The paper said Abu Shabab, in an earlier interview, “had boasted that he had become the strongest man in Gaza and saw himself as Hamas’s replacement. But the man who thought he was leading a revolution was brought down by the forces he helped empower and his vision of a different Gaza ended with the bullet that struck him in the back.”

A weak successor

The newspaper said Abu Shabab’s death created a “dangerous” vacuum and that no stable entity currently exists to replace Hamas in leading Gaza. It said existing militias are divided and disorganized and that Abu Shabab’s deputy, Ghassan al-Dahini, might assume leadership, although his position is far from secure.

Al-Dahini suffered a minor leg injury during the same incident and was taken to Barzilai Medical Center in Ashkelon for treatment, according to Israel’s Army Radio.

He appeared in a short video posted on social media performing the funeral prayer for Abu Shabab alongside dozens of gunmen, led by an elderly bearded man whose identity was not known.

In a brief interview with the Israeli newspaper published Friday, Al-Dahini vowed to continue Abu Shabab’s project and resist Hamas by establishing an alternative to its rule.

Al-Dahini, a former Palestinian security officer, described Hamas as too weak to undermine anyone’s morale.

Sources told Asharq al-Awsat that Abu Shabab was killed by two young men from the Debari and Abu Seneima clans. The two were later killed in a gunfight with Abu Shabab’s men during the incident in which he was present.