Future Uncertain for Hamas Supporters after Trump Ceasefire Plan

Hamas fighters during funeral of group leader in Gaza (File/Reuters)
Hamas fighters during funeral of group leader in Gaza (File/Reuters)
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Future Uncertain for Hamas Supporters after Trump Ceasefire Plan

Hamas fighters during funeral of group leader in Gaza (File/Reuters)
Hamas fighters during funeral of group leader in Gaza (File/Reuters)

US President Donald Trump’s proposal for a ceasefire in Gaza and an end to the two-year war has left members of Hamas, its supporters, and employees of its government facing questions over the movement’s future and their own fate.

For decades, analysts described Hamas as the most disciplined Palestinian faction, with a political, military, economic and religious structure that won it lasting popularity among many Palestinians.

But in governing Gaza, the group often struggled to act as a representative of all Palestinians, critics say, running the enclave along partisan lines.

The latest war — and Hamas’s failure to anticipate its fallout — has hardened public resentment, with some residents and supporters questioning decisions that led to what they see as an unexpected and costly dead end.

Leadership Under Fire

Throughout the conflict, Hamas largely maintained its political, military and government apparatus. But after Israel resumed its offensive on March 18, stepped-up assassinations and more precise strikes began eroding that structure.

Hamas sources told Asharq al-Awsat that some officials, for the first time, abandoned their duties for fear of their safety. Others continued working but were forced underground, complicating the running of government and the organization’s internal networks.

That vacuum has widened since the killing of senior commanders in targeted operations, leaving mid-level leaders feeling increasingly exposed as Israel presses on with the war.

Cracks within the Movement

Since March, Hamas cadres, supporters and government employees have felt the strain of war more acutely, according to residents and officials. Salaries, once a key lifeline, have shrunk to below 40% of their value, often paid in old, damaged banknotes.

The US plan has deepened uncertainty. Many Hamas loyalists now question whether the group can retain power, or even survive as a dominant force.

“Trump’s plan is dangerous,” said J.A., an employee of Hamas’s economy ministry, who also works in the group’s social outreach wing. “There are real fears among activists and employees that future security forces could arrest us or interrogate us for belonging to Hamas.”

He told Asharq Al-Awsat, under the conditions of anonymity, that anxiety was widespread, and that some were already weighing whether to flee abroad. Others, especially field fighters, reject that option and insist on keeping their weapons, fearing for their lives if they disarm.

A senior figure in Hamas’s preaching arm, known as al-Da‘wa, likened the moment to the 1990s, when security pacts led to mass arrests of Hamas members by Palestinian Authority forces.

“We fear another harsh crackdown, like in 1996–97,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

The Da‘wa apparatus has long been one of Hamas’s key structures, guiding members into political and government posts and shaping the organization’s outreach. But unlike in previous instances, the leader said, Trump’s proposal has not been discussed with lower ranks.

Decisions are instead being left to Hamas’s exiled leadership in hopes of securing a final deal to end the war.

An Uncertain Future

Hamas employees and activists across its political, military and religious wings agree that the future looks unpredictable. Many worry about rumored provisions that could grant amnesty only if fighters hand over their weapons.

Others fear the unknown role of international and Arab forces, as well as Palestinian Authority police units expected to take over governance.

A member of Hamas’s public outreach wing, which organizes rallies and conferences, described the situation as “unstable.” Yet, they insisted the group’s internal order remained intact despite the war.

“Even with all this destruction in Gaza, many still hold on to resistance,” they said.

“This is not a defeat or the dismantling of Hamas. The group is still strong, still united, and Israel has not managed to break it as it claims,” they told Asharq Al-Awsat.

But not all supporters share that view. Mohammed Hamdan, a Gaza resident displaced to the center of the strip, said Hamas needed to recognize the suffering of civilians.

“This is the time for Hamas to step aside and hand over governance to another Palestinian authority,” he said.

“Like many supporters, and perhaps even activists, I think we could accept being handed to the Palestinian Authority, provided we are protected from arrest and persecution, and given a chance to open a new Palestinian page.”



Guterres Names Envoy for Middle East… Warns of a Wider War

FILED - 14 May 2025, Berlin: United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres holds a press conference at the Federal Chancellery. Photo: Kay Nietfeld/dpa
FILED - 14 May 2025, Berlin: United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres holds a press conference at the Federal Chancellery. Photo: Kay Nietfeld/dpa
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Guterres Names Envoy for Middle East… Warns of a Wider War

FILED - 14 May 2025, Berlin: United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres holds a press conference at the Federal Chancellery. Photo: Kay Nietfeld/dpa
FILED - 14 May 2025, Berlin: United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres holds a press conference at the Federal Chancellery. Photo: Kay Nietfeld/dpa

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Wednesday named veteran French diplomat Jean Arnault as his personal envoy to support efforts to end the Middle East conflict, saying the “world is staring down the barrel of a wider war.”

Guterres told reporters that he had been in close contact with many in the region and around the world and that a number of initiatives ⁠for dialogue and peace were underway.

“It is time to stop climbing the escalation ladder – and start climbing the diplomatic ladder,” he said in New York.

The UN chief also warned that prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz was choking movement of oil, gas, and fertilizer at a critical moment in the global food planting season.

Guterres said ⁠Gulf countries are important suppliers of raw materials for nitrogen fertilizers crucial for developing countries.

“Without fertilizers today, we might have hunger tomorrow,” he noted.

Guterres said UN mediators have offered their services and Arnault would do “everything possible” to support peace efforts.

The UN says Arnault has more than ⁠30 years' experience in international diplomacy focusing on peace settlements and mediation, with a background in UN missions in Africa, Asia, Europe and Latin America.

His most recent assignment was in 2021 as Guterres' personal envoy on Afghanistan and regional issues.

Disrupted fertilizer shipments and soaring energy ⁠prices are threatening to unleash a fresh food-price surge across vulnerable nations, risking a years-long setback just as many were recovering from successive global shocks, UN and other experts warn.

An analysis released by ⁠the UN World Food Programme last week warned that tens of millions more people will face acute hunger if the Iran war continues through to June.


Israel Steps up Assassinations in Gaza

Smoke rises from a displacement camp in Deir al-Balah in central Gaza after an Israeli strike on Wednesday (AFP)
Smoke rises from a displacement camp in Deir al-Balah in central Gaza after an Israeli strike on Wednesday (AFP)
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Israel Steps up Assassinations in Gaza

Smoke rises from a displacement camp in Deir al-Balah in central Gaza after an Israeli strike on Wednesday (AFP)
Smoke rises from a displacement camp in Deir al-Balah in central Gaza after an Israeli strike on Wednesday (AFP)

A relative lull hangs over efforts to shape Gaza’s future, as global and regional attention shifts to the US-Israeli war against Iran.

Still, Israel has continued targeting commanders from Hamas’ armed wing, the Al-Qassam Brigades, using intelligence from collaborators and surveillance devices. One such device was recently uncovered in a displacement camp in central Gaza and self-destructed during inspection.

Israel killed Ahmed Darwish, an elite commander in the Central Brigade of the Qassam Brigades, along with his aide Nader al-Nabahin, while a third man was critically wounded. An Israeli drone struck them shortly before midnight on Tuesday into Wednesday near a football field south of the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza.

Field sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that Darwish had survived several assassination attempts during the war. One source said he led an elite unit in the Oct. 7, 2023, attack and captured several Israelis.

Sources said Darwish had recently emerged as a key figure in the Central Brigade after senior commanders were killed, and had been working with others to rebuild the Qassam Brigades.

The Israeli military said it struck Hamas elite operatives during what it described as military training in central Gaza, calling them a threat. Hamas field sources denied this, saying they were gathered normally when they were hit.

Mysterious blast of a surveillance device

A blast struck near a displacement camp in Deir al-Balah in central Gaza before noon on Wednesday, causing no injuries and initially thought to be a drone strike.

Field sources said fighters had found an Israeli surveillance device and tried to dismantle it to access images and recordings. It then self-destructed, possibly due to a malfunction or remote detonation by an Israeli drone.

Hours later, a warplane hit the same site, killing one person and wounding six others, one critically.

Sources said armed factions in Gaza have found several such devices before and during the war, used to transmit live images to drones and Israeli operations rooms.

Israel has stepped up intelligence and operational activity in central Gaza, areas less damaged during the war and hit by fewer ground and air attacks than elsewhere. Hebrew media say the Qassam Brigades have largely retained their strength there.

Repeated strikes on police vehicles

On Sunday evening, the third day of Eid al-Fitr, a drone struck a Hamas-run police vehicle, killing three and wounding others. Field sources said one of the dead was Ahmed Hamdan, an elite field commander in the Nuseirat Battalion of the Qassam Brigades.

The Israeli military did not comment. The strike followed a similar attack days earlier on a Hamas police vehicle that killed at least four people, including prominent Qassam operatives, in central Gaza.

Asharq Al-Awsat monitoring shows that at least 10 field commanders, including company leaders, elite unit commanders, and deputy battalion commanders, have been killed by Israel in the past three weeks in a series of strikes.

Gaza’s Health Ministry says at least 690 Palestinians have been killed since a ceasefire took effect on Oct. 10, 2025, bringing the total death toll since the war began to more than 72,265.

The killings have come alongside continued airstrikes, artillery fire, and demolitions along both sides of the so-called “yellow line,” and bulldozing of remaining homes along the main Salah al-Din road, particularly near Khan Younis and in areas such as Shuja’iyya and Jabalia.

Foiled assassination attempt

Military activity has coincided with operations by armed gangs in areas under Israeli control.

Hamas’ Radea (Deterrence) force said it foiled an attempt to assassinate a resistance commander, arresting two suspects and seizing their weapons and equipment, while two others fled.

It said interrogations revealed details about coordination between armed gangs and Israeli intelligence, which could help dismantle the groups.

Field sources said the target was a senior faction leader. They added that tighter security measures helped thwart the plot. Silenced pistols, cameras, and communication devices with Israeli SIM cards were seized.

Armed gangs have stepped up attacks on faction leaders and senior Hamas government officials. Some attempts have been foiled, while others have succeeded in recent months.


Lebanon’s Upcoming Cabinet Session to Test Fallout of Expelling Iranian Envoy

A photo of former Secretary-General of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah lies amid the rubble of an Al-Qard Al-Hassan Association building destroyed by an Israeli airstrike in Beirut’s southern suburbs (EPA)
A photo of former Secretary-General of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah lies amid the rubble of an Al-Qard Al-Hassan Association building destroyed by an Israeli airstrike in Beirut’s southern suburbs (EPA)
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Lebanon’s Upcoming Cabinet Session to Test Fallout of Expelling Iranian Envoy

A photo of former Secretary-General of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah lies amid the rubble of an Al-Qard Al-Hassan Association building destroyed by an Israeli airstrike in Beirut’s southern suburbs (EPA)
A photo of former Secretary-General of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah lies amid the rubble of an Al-Qard Al-Hassan Association building destroyed by an Israeli airstrike in Beirut’s southern suburbs (EPA)

Lebanon’s cabinet meets on Thursday in a first test of a deepening political crisis, after a sharp split between the “Shiite duo” of Hezbollah and Amal Movement and other factions over a decision to declare Iran’s ambassador, Mohammad Reza Sheibani, persona non grata.

The government will convene at the Grand Serail to assess the fallout across political, security, and social fronts, including escalating Israeli attacks and displacement, the prime minister’s office said.

The crisis, triggered by the Foreign Ministry’s move, threatens to disrupt cabinet work. The ministry said the decision followed diplomatic violations by the Iranian envoy.

Sources familiar with the Shiite duo’s stance said their ministers could boycott the session chaired by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam if no compromise is reached.

Other sources said contacts between Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and President Joseph Aoun were ongoing to contain the crisis, starting with ensuring attendance and putting the issue on the agenda.

Presidency silent

The presidency has not commented, awaiting Thursday’s session, as the president faces pressure from both sides. The Shiite duo is demanding a reversal, while parties opposed to Hezbollah, including the Lebanese Forces and the Kataeb Party, back the decision.

Sources close to the Shiite duo said proposed solutions center on reversing the move. Diplomatic sources dismissed that option, saying the foreign ministry is not considering a rollback.

Sources following the discussions said expelling an ambassador is a sovereign decision under Article 9 of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, and falls within the president’s authority.

They added that the Iranian envoy had been appointed but was not yet accredited, as the war had delayed the presentation of credentials.

Political alignment

The crisis has deepened internal divisions, with ministerial sources saying Lebanon is effectively drawn into broader regional alignments.

The Amal Movement said it “will not allow the crisis to pass under any circumstances,” calling a reversal a “national virtue.”

Hezbollah escalated its stance, as senior cleric Ali al-Khatib urged the state to reverse the decision, saying it harms Lebanon’s interests.

Talks with Israel stall

The dispute also reflects the Shiite duo's wider rejection of direct talks with Israel.

Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem did not address the envoy issue, but said Lebanon faces a choice between surrender and confrontation, calling resistance a national responsibility.

Direct talks between Lebanon and Israel appear stalled. Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported contacts had stopped due to Lebanon’s lack of readiness and Israel’s continued attacks.

A European diplomat said Lebanon’s willingness to negotiate under fire has faded after the government failed to agree on a negotiating delegation.

A source also cited fears within the Lebanese government of being accused of collaborating with the enemy, as Israel continues to strike Beirut and destroy bridges over the Litani River.