Surging Nile Waters Inundate Egypt and Sudan, Revive Row over Ethiopian Mega-Dam

A woman sits near her flooded house in Dalhamo Village, near the Delta city of Ashmoun, in Menoufia Governorate, Egypt, October 5, 2025. (Reuters)
A woman sits near her flooded house in Dalhamo Village, near the Delta city of Ashmoun, in Menoufia Governorate, Egypt, October 5, 2025. (Reuters)
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Surging Nile Waters Inundate Egypt and Sudan, Revive Row over Ethiopian Mega-Dam

A woman sits near her flooded house in Dalhamo Village, near the Delta city of Ashmoun, in Menoufia Governorate, Egypt, October 5, 2025. (Reuters)
A woman sits near her flooded house in Dalhamo Village, near the Delta city of Ashmoun, in Menoufia Governorate, Egypt, October 5, 2025. (Reuters)

Rising Nile waters inundated homes and fields in northern Egypt over the weekend, forcing residents to move by boat and intensifying a war of words between Cairo and Addis Ababa over whether Ethiopia's giant Nile dam has worsened seasonal floods.

In the Nile Delta village of Dalhamo, in Menoufia Governorate, some 50 km (31 miles) northwest of Cairo, men paddled wooden boats through narrow lanes where water lapped at the walls of their homes.

"We lost everything," said fisherman Saied Gameel, standing knee-deep in his flooded house. "The water level is extremely high, much higher this year ... before it would rise for two days and then recede."

FLOODS IN SUDAN DISPLACE THOUSANDS

The Nile has long been affected by seasonal flooding due to monsoon rainfall in the Ethiopian Highlands that usually peaks in July and August. But this year a late-season surge has pushed north from Ethiopia, through Sudan, and into Egypt.

In Sudan, the UN migration agency said floods in Bahri, Khartoum state, displaced about 1,200 families last week and destroyed homes, compounding an 18-month war that has crippled the country's response.

Egypt's Water Resources and Irrigation Ministry has accused Ethiopia of "reckless unilateral" operation of its Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, saying sharp, unannounced swings in water releases after the dam's September 9 inauguration helped trigger a "man-made, late flood".

It said, in a statement on October 3, that discharges jumped to about 485 million cubic meters on September 10 and as high as 780 million on September 27 before easing, straining Sudan's Roseires Dam and pushing excess water through to Egypt.

Ethiopia, which sees the $5 billion dam as central to its development, rejected Cairo's claims, describing Egypt's statement as "malicious and riddled with numerous baseless claims".

In a statement on October 4, its Water and Energy Ministry said regulated releases from the Blue Nile project had reduced flood impacts and that without it, heavy rain "would have caused historic destruction in Sudan and Egypt".

Ethiopia inaugurated the dam on September 9, with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed saying it was built "to prosper, to electrify the entire region, and to change the history of black people", insisting it was "not to harm its brothers".

The dam is designed to generate 5,150 megawatts of power and hold up to 74 billion cubic meters of water in its lake.

Cairo bitterly opposed the dam from the start, arguing that it violated water treaties dating back to the early part of the last century and poses an existential threat.

'NOWHERE ELSE TO GO'

Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said in a press conference on October 2 that authorities had anticipated higher-than-normal flows this month and warned that low-lying tracts in Menoufia and neighboring Beheira, long encroached by informal building and farming on the river's floodplain, were at risk.

Health teams were deployed to flooded areas over the weekend.

Back in Dalhamo, Gameel said residents were still waiting for help.

"People were warned before the water rose, but there's nowhere else for anyone," he said. "When the water rises, everyone ends up staying on top of their houses."



Guterres Names Envoy for Middle East… Warns of a Wider War

FILED - 14 May 2025, Berlin: United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres holds a press conference at the Federal Chancellery. Photo: Kay Nietfeld/dpa
FILED - 14 May 2025, Berlin: United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres holds a press conference at the Federal Chancellery. Photo: Kay Nietfeld/dpa
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Guterres Names Envoy for Middle East… Warns of a Wider War

FILED - 14 May 2025, Berlin: United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres holds a press conference at the Federal Chancellery. Photo: Kay Nietfeld/dpa
FILED - 14 May 2025, Berlin: United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres holds a press conference at the Federal Chancellery. Photo: Kay Nietfeld/dpa

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Wednesday named veteran French diplomat Jean Arnault as his personal envoy to support efforts to end the Middle East conflict, saying the “world is staring down the barrel of a wider war.”

Guterres told reporters that he had been in close contact with many in the region and around the world and that a number of initiatives ⁠for dialogue and peace were underway.

“It is time to stop climbing the escalation ladder – and start climbing the diplomatic ladder,” he said in New York.

The UN chief also warned that prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz was choking movement of oil, gas, and fertilizer at a critical moment in the global food planting season.

Guterres said ⁠Gulf countries are important suppliers of raw materials for nitrogen fertilizers crucial for developing countries.

“Without fertilizers today, we might have hunger tomorrow,” he noted.

Guterres said UN mediators have offered their services and Arnault would do “everything possible” to support peace efforts.

The UN says Arnault has more than ⁠30 years' experience in international diplomacy focusing on peace settlements and mediation, with a background in UN missions in Africa, Asia, Europe and Latin America.

His most recent assignment was in 2021 as Guterres' personal envoy on Afghanistan and regional issues.

Disrupted fertilizer shipments and soaring energy ⁠prices are threatening to unleash a fresh food-price surge across vulnerable nations, risking a years-long setback just as many were recovering from successive global shocks, UN and other experts warn.

An analysis released by ⁠the UN World Food Programme last week warned that tens of millions more people will face acute hunger if the Iran war continues through to June.


Israel Steps up Assassinations in Gaza

Smoke rises from a displacement camp in Deir al-Balah in central Gaza after an Israeli strike on Wednesday (AFP)
Smoke rises from a displacement camp in Deir al-Balah in central Gaza after an Israeli strike on Wednesday (AFP)
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Israel Steps up Assassinations in Gaza

Smoke rises from a displacement camp in Deir al-Balah in central Gaza after an Israeli strike on Wednesday (AFP)
Smoke rises from a displacement camp in Deir al-Balah in central Gaza after an Israeli strike on Wednesday (AFP)

A relative lull hangs over efforts to shape Gaza’s future, as global and regional attention shifts to the US-Israeli war against Iran.

Still, Israel has continued targeting commanders from Hamas’ armed wing, the Al-Qassam Brigades, using intelligence from collaborators and surveillance devices. One such device was recently uncovered in a displacement camp in central Gaza and self-destructed during inspection.

Israel killed Ahmed Darwish, an elite commander in the Central Brigade of the Qassam Brigades, along with his aide Nader al-Nabahin, while a third man was critically wounded. An Israeli drone struck them shortly before midnight on Tuesday into Wednesday near a football field south of the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza.

Field sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that Darwish had survived several assassination attempts during the war. One source said he led an elite unit in the Oct. 7, 2023, attack and captured several Israelis.

Sources said Darwish had recently emerged as a key figure in the Central Brigade after senior commanders were killed, and had been working with others to rebuild the Qassam Brigades.

The Israeli military said it struck Hamas elite operatives during what it described as military training in central Gaza, calling them a threat. Hamas field sources denied this, saying they were gathered normally when they were hit.

Mysterious blast of a surveillance device

A blast struck near a displacement camp in Deir al-Balah in central Gaza before noon on Wednesday, causing no injuries and initially thought to be a drone strike.

Field sources said fighters had found an Israeli surveillance device and tried to dismantle it to access images and recordings. It then self-destructed, possibly due to a malfunction or remote detonation by an Israeli drone.

Hours later, a warplane hit the same site, killing one person and wounding six others, one critically.

Sources said armed factions in Gaza have found several such devices before and during the war, used to transmit live images to drones and Israeli operations rooms.

Israel has stepped up intelligence and operational activity in central Gaza, areas less damaged during the war and hit by fewer ground and air attacks than elsewhere. Hebrew media say the Qassam Brigades have largely retained their strength there.

Repeated strikes on police vehicles

On Sunday evening, the third day of Eid al-Fitr, a drone struck a Hamas-run police vehicle, killing three and wounding others. Field sources said one of the dead was Ahmed Hamdan, an elite field commander in the Nuseirat Battalion of the Qassam Brigades.

The Israeli military did not comment. The strike followed a similar attack days earlier on a Hamas police vehicle that killed at least four people, including prominent Qassam operatives, in central Gaza.

Asharq Al-Awsat monitoring shows that at least 10 field commanders, including company leaders, elite unit commanders, and deputy battalion commanders, have been killed by Israel in the past three weeks in a series of strikes.

Gaza’s Health Ministry says at least 690 Palestinians have been killed since a ceasefire took effect on Oct. 10, 2025, bringing the total death toll since the war began to more than 72,265.

The killings have come alongside continued airstrikes, artillery fire, and demolitions along both sides of the so-called “yellow line,” and bulldozing of remaining homes along the main Salah al-Din road, particularly near Khan Younis and in areas such as Shuja’iyya and Jabalia.

Foiled assassination attempt

Military activity has coincided with operations by armed gangs in areas under Israeli control.

Hamas’ Radea (Deterrence) force said it foiled an attempt to assassinate a resistance commander, arresting two suspects and seizing their weapons and equipment, while two others fled.

It said interrogations revealed details about coordination between armed gangs and Israeli intelligence, which could help dismantle the groups.

Field sources said the target was a senior faction leader. They added that tighter security measures helped thwart the plot. Silenced pistols, cameras, and communication devices with Israeli SIM cards were seized.

Armed gangs have stepped up attacks on faction leaders and senior Hamas government officials. Some attempts have been foiled, while others have succeeded in recent months.


Lebanon’s Upcoming Cabinet Session to Test Fallout of Expelling Iranian Envoy

A photo of former Secretary-General of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah lies amid the rubble of an Al-Qard Al-Hassan Association building destroyed by an Israeli airstrike in Beirut’s southern suburbs (EPA)
A photo of former Secretary-General of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah lies amid the rubble of an Al-Qard Al-Hassan Association building destroyed by an Israeli airstrike in Beirut’s southern suburbs (EPA)
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Lebanon’s Upcoming Cabinet Session to Test Fallout of Expelling Iranian Envoy

A photo of former Secretary-General of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah lies amid the rubble of an Al-Qard Al-Hassan Association building destroyed by an Israeli airstrike in Beirut’s southern suburbs (EPA)
A photo of former Secretary-General of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah lies amid the rubble of an Al-Qard Al-Hassan Association building destroyed by an Israeli airstrike in Beirut’s southern suburbs (EPA)

Lebanon’s cabinet meets on Thursday in a first test of a deepening political crisis, after a sharp split between the “Shiite duo” of Hezbollah and Amal Movement and other factions over a decision to declare Iran’s ambassador, Mohammad Reza Sheibani, persona non grata.

The government will convene at the Grand Serail to assess the fallout across political, security, and social fronts, including escalating Israeli attacks and displacement, the prime minister’s office said.

The crisis, triggered by the Foreign Ministry’s move, threatens to disrupt cabinet work. The ministry said the decision followed diplomatic violations by the Iranian envoy.

Sources familiar with the Shiite duo’s stance said their ministers could boycott the session chaired by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam if no compromise is reached.

Other sources said contacts between Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and President Joseph Aoun were ongoing to contain the crisis, starting with ensuring attendance and putting the issue on the agenda.

Presidency silent

The presidency has not commented, awaiting Thursday’s session, as the president faces pressure from both sides. The Shiite duo is demanding a reversal, while parties opposed to Hezbollah, including the Lebanese Forces and the Kataeb Party, back the decision.

Sources close to the Shiite duo said proposed solutions center on reversing the move. Diplomatic sources dismissed that option, saying the foreign ministry is not considering a rollback.

Sources following the discussions said expelling an ambassador is a sovereign decision under Article 9 of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, and falls within the president’s authority.

They added that the Iranian envoy had been appointed but was not yet accredited, as the war had delayed the presentation of credentials.

Political alignment

The crisis has deepened internal divisions, with ministerial sources saying Lebanon is effectively drawn into broader regional alignments.

The Amal Movement said it “will not allow the crisis to pass under any circumstances,” calling a reversal a “national virtue.”

Hezbollah escalated its stance, as senior cleric Ali al-Khatib urged the state to reverse the decision, saying it harms Lebanon’s interests.

Talks with Israel stall

The dispute also reflects the Shiite duo's wider rejection of direct talks with Israel.

Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem did not address the envoy issue, but said Lebanon faces a choice between surrender and confrontation, calling resistance a national responsibility.

Direct talks between Lebanon and Israel appear stalled. Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported contacts had stopped due to Lebanon’s lack of readiness and Israel’s continued attacks.

A European diplomat said Lebanon’s willingness to negotiate under fire has faded after the government failed to agree on a negotiating delegation.

A source also cited fears within the Lebanese government of being accused of collaborating with the enemy, as Israel continues to strike Beirut and destroy bridges over the Litani River.