Just two days after a US message reassured Baghdad about the future of bilateral relations, the Iraqi government appears to have received its sternest warning yet from the White House regarding armed factions.
The message contained a direct threat should these groups carry out any retaliatory actions in response to planned US operations in areas near Iraq in the coming days.
Iraq is preparing for its sixth parliamentary elections since the 2003 US-led invasion, amid deep divisions among political forces.
In this context, the mixed signals from Washington have fueled growing concern across the political spectrum, particularly among Shiite factions.
Two days after what seemed a clear signal of support for Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, who is contesting the elections amid intense internal disputes within the Shiite Coordination Framework, Baghdad received a sharply worded warning from US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, conveyed in a phone call to his Iraqi counterpart, Defense Minister Thabet al-Abbasi.
In a televised interview, al-Abbasi said Hegseth, via the US chargé d’affaires in Baghdad, warned of upcoming military operations in the region, cautioning against any interference by Iraqi factions. No further operational details were provided.
Al-Abbasi said the call lasted 11 to 12 minutes and included Iraq’s Chief of Staff, Deputy Joint Operations Commander, Assistant Operations Chief, and Director of Military Intelligence. The discussion also covered drone cooperation, a proposed security and intelligence cooperation memorandum, and the planned delivery of Bell helicopters to Iraq.
Al Abbasi concluded that Hegseth ended the call with a pointed warning: This is your final notice and you know well how the current administration will respond.
Experts Warn of Serious Concerns
Analysts speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat acknowledged serious concerns over the future of US-Iraq relations, regardless of the upcoming election results.
Dr. Ihsan Al-Shammari, head of the Iraqi Center for Political Thought, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the US administration’s strategy, particularly regarding armed factions and Iranian allies, is still in its initial testing phase.
Therefore, the fact that Washington has not yet taken concrete action suggests that steps are expected within a formal state framework.
Al-Shammari added that the US Secretary of War’s message reflects this approach and carries a clear warning. It signals that these groups are now targeted and have no option but to either align with the state and disarm or face potential US military action.
He noted that statements by US envoy Mark Savaya and Secretary Hegseth constitute a roadmap for political forces forming the next government, in line with American options.
Political analyst Dr. Abbas Abboud Salem told Asharq Al-Awsat that the US warning is not new in terms of Washington’s stance toward armed factions, as the conflict has been ongoing for years. The question now is why the threat comes at this particular moment.
Abboud said regional transformations, including developments in Syria and shifting regional power balances, mark a new phase in which secondary actors can no longer play significant roles.
He added that the US is not seeking an equal partnership with Iraq as it does with other countries. Its primary goal is to curb Iranian influence in Iraq and the broader region, particularly during elections, when some factions are participating, a scenario Washington finds unacceptable.
Security and strategy expert Mukhlid Hazem told Asharq Al-Awsat that it is clear that military arrangements are underway in the region, possibly targeting Iran, with coordinated air operations against Iranian-backed armed factions.
Hazem noted that this is not the first US warning. Secretary of State Marco Rubio previously issued a similar warning during a call with the Iraqi prime minister. Savaya also sent a clear warning in his latest message, and any targeting could occur at any moment, as al-Abbasi publicly confirmed.
He added that there is an unmistakable US escalation against Iran, putting everyone on alert. Military operations against Tehran could happen soon, whether by the US or Israel.
The Muhandis Controversy
Separately, Iraq’s Ministry of Communications responded to a US media report claiming it had contracted the Muhandis company, affiliated with the Popular Mobilization Forces PMF, for a project.
The ministry said in a statement that the company is government-owned, under the PMF, and is entitled to participate in tenders and execute projects according to applicable regulations. It added that all ministry formations have the right to contract with any government-owned companies.
The statement clarified that the contract with Muhandis was fully compliant with Government Contract Execution Instructions No 2, after the company and others from the Ministries of Construction, Housing, and Industry were invited to participate in the maintenance of fiber-optic cable routes and the excavation and extension of new routes.
It stressed that this work is not linked in any way to Iraq’s Communications Administration, which exclusively manages and operates the fiber-optic network, using ministry staff only.
The US Treasury had imposed new sanctions on October 9 targeting Iraqi banking figures and companies linked to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Hezbollah Brigades, including Muhandis, described as the PMF’s economic arm. Washington said the sanctions aimed to dismantle corruption and money-laundering networks enabling armed groups to operate inside and outside Iraq.
