Political, Military Activity in Lebanon to Address Weapons, Ceasefire Mechanism Crisis

Lebanese army soldiers look toward the Israeli military position of Hanita (left) and the Labbouneh position, part of the five hills occupied by Israeli forces since last year (right), from a Lebanese military post in the village of Alma al-Shaab in southern Lebanon, Nov. 28, 2025. (AP) 
Lebanese army soldiers look toward the Israeli military position of Hanita (left) and the Labbouneh position, part of the five hills occupied by Israeli forces since last year (right), from a Lebanese military post in the village of Alma al-Shaab in southern Lebanon, Nov. 28, 2025. (AP) 
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Political, Military Activity in Lebanon to Address Weapons, Ceasefire Mechanism Crisis

Lebanese army soldiers look toward the Israeli military position of Hanita (left) and the Labbouneh position, part of the five hills occupied by Israeli forces since last year (right), from a Lebanese military post in the village of Alma al-Shaab in southern Lebanon, Nov. 28, 2025. (AP) 
Lebanese army soldiers look toward the Israeli military position of Hanita (left) and the Labbouneh position, part of the five hills occupied by Israeli forces since last year (right), from a Lebanese military post in the village of Alma al-Shaab in southern Lebanon, Nov. 28, 2025. (AP) 

Lebanon is preparing political and military conditions to ensure the success of an upcoming visit by Army Commander Gen. Rodolphe Haykal to the United States, consolidate stability at home, and pave the way for a Paris conference in March to support the Lebanese Armed Forces.

The effort involves coordinated steps, beginning with setting a date for the army to present its vision to the government for implementing the second phase of the “exclusive state control of weapons” plan, alongside intensified international contacts to reactivate the work of the ceasefire monitoring mechanism.

Lebanese sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the success of the Paris conference depends on US backing, while Washington is awaiting the army’s proposed approach for launching the second phase of the weapons plan.

Political and military initiatives aim to unlock multiple obstacles simultaneously, strengthen stability, and enable the army to carry out its government-mandated tasks.

Army Plan Presented to Cabinet

The Cabinet is scheduled to meet Friday afternoon at Baabda Palace under President Joseph Aoun. A key agenda item is the army’s plan for deployment and operations north of the Litani River, which Haykal is expected to present in detail.

The Central News Agency (Al-Markaziah) reported that the briefing will cover the operational framework, implementation stages, assigned missions, and logistical and security requirements, considering recent developments in the south and Lebanon’s state commitments.

Official sources said the plan will define geographic scope, types of weapons, implementation tools, and timelines, and will be reviewed pending approval by relevant parties, an implicit reference to US and Israeli consent.

They noted that exclusive state control of weapons is a government commitment, and that Hezbollah, as part of the government, is expected to adhere to the plan.

During the first phase south of the Litani, the army worked to prevent the transfer of weapons between governorates. Proposals to “contain weapons” north of the Litani — an initiative put forward by Egypt and previously approved by the United States — are also under discussion.

The “Mechanism” Impasse

The resumption of meetings of the ceasefire “mechanism” is seen as the most significant obstacle.

On the military level, a Lebanese army delegation traveled to the United States on Wednesday ahead of Haykal’s planned visit on Feb. 5. Senior officers are expected to meet Gen. Joseph Clairfield, head of the mechanism committee, with sources confirming that no changes have been made to the committee overseeing the ceasefire.

Politically, the Lebanese presidency announced that Aoun’s security and military adviser, retired Brig. Gen. Antoine Mansour, met US Col. David Leon Klingensmith, deputy head of the mechanism committee, in the presence of Defense Attaché Col. Jason Belknap at the US Embassy in Beirut. Discussions focused on the committee’s work, cooperation with the Lebanese side, and preparations for the next meeting.

The meeting also explored whether Israel had responded to Lebanese demands regarding the ceasefire, withdrawal, and prisoner releases. Ministerial sources stressed that the mechanism remains the sole framework for security, military, and political negotiations to implement the agreement.

Next Meeting and Growing Tensions

The next mechanism meeting is scheduled for Feb. 25. While the agenda has not been finalized, official estimates suggest it will focus on security issues rather than political ones, amid continued Israeli violations despite Lebanon’s fulfillment of its commitments.

Lebanese authorities maintain that Lebanon has extended state authority south of the Litani, removed weapons, refrained from firing toward Israel, and advanced phased implementation of exclusive state control of arms — steps taken unilaterally, while Israel has not halted attacks, withdrawn from occupied positions, or released detainees.

Sources stressed the need for international pressure on Israel to honor its obligations and demonstrate good faith in the ceasefire process.



Israeli Evacuation Orders Affect 14% of Lebanon, NGO Says

Emergency personnel at the scene after an Israeli airstrike had targeted a neighborhood in the town of Mieh Mieh near Sidon, southern Lebanon, 13 March 2026. (EPA)
Emergency personnel at the scene after an Israeli airstrike had targeted a neighborhood in the town of Mieh Mieh near Sidon, southern Lebanon, 13 March 2026. (EPA)
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Israeli Evacuation Orders Affect 14% of Lebanon, NGO Says

Emergency personnel at the scene after an Israeli airstrike had targeted a neighborhood in the town of Mieh Mieh near Sidon, southern Lebanon, 13 March 2026. (EPA)
Emergency personnel at the scene after an Israeli airstrike had targeted a neighborhood in the town of Mieh Mieh near Sidon, southern Lebanon, 13 March 2026. (EPA)

Over an eighth of Lebanon's territory is under Israeli orders for people to leave their homes, an aid group said on Friday, while the United Nations peacekeeping mission said Israeli ground troops were making incursions and erecting roadblocks.

Israel has been carrying out daily strikes on Lebanon since March 2 when the Iran-backed group Hezbollah launched rockets at Israel to avenge the killing of Iran's supreme leader in Tehran on the first ‌day of ‌the US-Israeli war with Iran.

Almost 700 people ‌in ⁠Lebanon have died ⁠in Israeli attacks and over 800,000 have been displaced. Israel's military says it has targeted Hezbollah militants and Iranian forces.

The Norwegian Refugee Council said Israel's evacuation orders for southern Lebanon and parts of Beirut now covered about 1,470 square kilometers or about 14% of the country.

"Israel’s mass evacuation orders have expanded to broad geographic directives, often ⁠demanding immediate movement, creating panic and fear across communities ‌that strikes are imminent – even when ‌they are not," said Maureen Philippon, NRC Country Director in Lebanon.

UN human rights ‌chief Volker Turk has said the blanket Israeli evacuation orders ‌raise serious international law concerns.

NRC's office in Tyre, south Lebanon, was badly damaged, it said, with no injuries. The Israeli military has carried out several strikes on Tyre since March 2, including a Tuesday strike on what ‌it described as a Hezbollah command center in the area.

The International Organization for Migration's Mathieu Luciano told a ⁠Geneva press ⁠briefing that around 600 shelters had been set up across the country, with many of them almost full. Hospitals are increasingly overstretched due to surging trauma cases, a World Health Organization official added.

The UN Interim Force in Lebanon told the same briefing its operations had been limited by the ongoing hostilities which injured two soldiers a week ago. Still, its troops had observed Israeli troop incursions, saying they had travelled up to 7 kilometers inside Lebanon and erected roadblocks restricting access.

“We are deeply concerned that the situation will deteriorate further," UNIFIL spokesperson Kandice Ardiel said by video link from Lebanon.


4 US Service Members Killed in Plane Crash Over Iraq

(FILES) A US Air Force Boeing KC-135 Stratotanker aerial-refuelling aircraft flies over Tel Aviv on March 4, 2026. (Photo by JACK GUEZ / AFP)
(FILES) A US Air Force Boeing KC-135 Stratotanker aerial-refuelling aircraft flies over Tel Aviv on March 4, 2026. (Photo by JACK GUEZ / AFP)
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4 US Service Members Killed in Plane Crash Over Iraq

(FILES) A US Air Force Boeing KC-135 Stratotanker aerial-refuelling aircraft flies over Tel Aviv on March 4, 2026. (Photo by JACK GUEZ / AFP)
(FILES) A US Air Force Boeing KC-135 Stratotanker aerial-refuelling aircraft flies over Tel Aviv on March 4, 2026. (Photo by JACK GUEZ / AFP)

Four of the six crew members aboard a US military aircraft that crashed in western Iraq are confirmed to have been killed, the US military said on Friday, ⁠as rescue efforts ⁠continued for the remaining two.

A US military refueling aircraft crashed in western ⁠Iraq on Thursday, in an incident the military said involved another aircraft but was not the result of hostile or friendly fire.

"The circumstances of the incident are ⁠under ⁠investigation. However, the loss of the aircraft was not due to hostile fire or friendly fire," a statement from US Central Command said.

The plane was taking part in the operation against Iran.

Both President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have warned that the Iran war would likely claim more American lives before it ends.


Iran War Raises Concerns Over Impact on Suez Canal Traffic

A ship transits the Suez Canal last month (Suez Canal Authority). 
A ship transits the Suez Canal last month (Suez Canal Authority). 
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Iran War Raises Concerns Over Impact on Suez Canal Traffic

A ship transits the Suez Canal last month (Suez Canal Authority). 
A ship transits the Suez Canal last month (Suez Canal Authority). 

The Iran war has sparked growing concern in Egypt over its potential impact on navigation through the Suez Canal, one of the country’s most important sources of national income. Experts say the conflict has already begun affecting traffic through the strategic waterway as security risks for ships increase.

Recent reports indicate that several major global shipping companies—including Denmark’s Maersk, France’s CMA CGM, and Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd—have suspended the transit of some vessels through the canal.

The head of the Suez Canal Authority, Admiral Osama Rabie, expressed hope that regional stability would return soon, warning that escalating tensions could have serious repercussions for maritime transport and global supply chains.

In a statement issued Thursday, Rabie said the authority has moved to upgrade its maritime and navigational services and introduce new activities designed to meet customer needs in both normal and emergency circumstances. These include ship maintenance and repair services, maritime rescue operations and marine ambulance services, alongside continued modernization of the authority’s fleet of marine units.

Early impact on canal traffic

International transport expert Osama Aqil said the war’s effect on the canal had been evident since the first days of the conflict.

“Current indicators show that canal traffic has declined by about 50 percent since the war began,” Aqil told Asharq Al-Awsat. He attributed the drop to rising security risks and higher insurance premiums imposed on vessels passing through the region.

Aqil warned that the impact could deepen if the conflict drags on. Even after hostilities end, he said, it may take considerable time for shipping traffic to return to normal.

“International shipping groups that divert their vessels to the Cape of Good Hope route will likely sign contracts for the alternative passage,” he said. “Ending those arrangements and redirecting ships back through the canal will take time.”

Before the latest tensions, the Suez Canal had been showing signs of recovery following an earlier setback caused by Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea linked to the war in Gaza.

In January, the Suez Canal Authority said navigation statistics showed a “noticeable improvement” during the first half of the 2025–2026 fiscal year. Rabie said at the time that indicators pointed to improving revenues as some shipping lines resumed using the canal after conditions stabilized in the Red Sea.

Wider threat to global trade

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has also warned about the impact of regional tensions on shipping in the Red Sea. During a meeting in Cairo earlier this month with Ajay Banga, president of the World Bank Group, Sisi said Egypt had lost roughly $10 billion in Suez Canal revenues due to the Gaza war, according to the Egyptian presidency.

Aqil said the Iran war could affect not only the canal but global trade more broadly, which he said has already shown signs of slowing.

“If the conflict continues, transport costs will rise, which will push up prices for many goods and commodities,” he stated.

Suez Canal revenues dropped sharply in 2024, falling 61 percent to $3.9 billion, compared with about $10.2 billion in 2023.

Security risk management expert Major General Ihab Youssef noted that the continuation of the war poses a threat to global navigation, not only to the Suez Canal.

Egypt secures ships along the canal and up to the limits of its territorial waters, he remarked. However, vessels traveling to and from the waterway must still pass through areas affected by military operations in the Gulf region and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, prompting many shipping companies to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope.

“Any closure of the Strait of Hormuz would further increase the risks of transit, particularly if the war is prolonged,” Youssef said.