As momentum builds around efforts to advance the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement, the risk of a broader confrontation between the United States and Iran is resurfacing, threatening to upend regional priorities amid Israeli moves that are fueling growing concern.
Experts speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat warned that the Gaza agreement is increasingly vulnerable, saying any strike on Tehran would deliberately draw Israel into a broader escalation aimed at disrupting implementation of the second phase, covering Israeli violations and potentially derailing the deal altogether.
Their warnings came alongside explicit Egyptian caution, voiced on Friday by President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, over the consequences of further escalation.
Those concerns coincided with a buildup of US military forces in the Middle East and threats by President Donald Trump to strike Iran, even as he has also said he does not oppose dialogue with Tehran.
On June 13, 2025, Israel, with US support, launched an attack on Iran that lasted 12 days, targeting military and nuclear sites as well as civilian facilities, and killing commanders and scientists. Iran responded by striking Israeli military and intelligence facilities with missiles and drones.
On June 22, the US attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities, claiming it had neutralized them. Tehran retaliated by shelling the US Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, before Washington announced on June 24 a ceasefire between Tel Aviv and Tehran.
Egyptian warnings
Sisi said in remarks on Friday to students at the Police Academy east of Cairo that “the Iranian crisis is escalating and could have an impact on the region.”
He added: “We are making major efforts, quietly, to reach dialogue in any way possible to reduce escalation in the Iranian crisis. We are mindful that if fighting breaks out, it could have grave repercussions for our region, as well as economic consequences.”
The president’s remarks came a day after Israeli media reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had held a security meeting on Iran, and as Israel’s public broadcaster announced on Friday the arrival of a US destroyer at the port of Eilat.
Israeli media said the arrival of the destroyer had been planned and was part of cooperation between the Israeli and US militaries.
Rakha Ahmed Hassan, a member of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs and a former assistant foreign minister, said Israel benefits from any war and could exploit it to expand what he described as its destructive plans in Gaza and to cover them up, further complicating matters.
Palestinian political analyst Nizar Nazzal said the indicators point to military action against Iran, with unmistakable Israeli efforts through incitement and mobilization, and a desire by Netanyahu to pursue such a course.
He added that Egypt has genuine concerns about the repercussions for the region, with the Gaza agreement likely to be among the first casualties.
Amid the potential escalation, a statement from Netanyahu’s office on Friday said that, in accordance with the ceasefire agreement and the directives of the political leadership, the Rafah crossing will be opened on Sunday in both directions for limited individual movement only.
It added that additional inspections will be conducted at a security checkpoint operated by the security establishment in the area under Israeli army control.
In his speech on Friday, in which he warned of the consequences of striking Iran, the Egyptian president also called for implementation of the second phase of the Gaza agreement, saying this was “extremely important.”
Nazzal said Netanyahu could exploit a strike on Iran to sabotage or delay the start of the second phase of the ceasefire.
Until any potential strike takes place in the coming days or weeks, he said, Netanyahu may divide the phase into parts and prolong its implementation, as seen in what he described as maneuvering and conditions aimed at undermining the opening of the Rafah crossing.
That, he added, allows Netanyahu to evade commitments such as withdrawing from Gaza.
Disruption to the Gaza agreement
Israel’s Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper reported that political and security circles stress Netanyahu is not currently seeking a full-scale war.
It said he is instead working to narrow the options available to Iran’s leadership through indirect coordination with the Trump administration, while projecting that Israel is ready for all scenarios and that a decision could be taken at any moment.
Hassan criticized what he described as US-Israeli propaganda, expressing concern over the killing of thousands of protesters in Tehran, while showing no concern over the killing of 75,000 Palestinians by Israel or the failure to open the Rafah crossing to allow aid for the starving.
He said the Gaza agreement is tied to Trump’s credibility, and that any threat to it would make him the biggest loser.
Nazzal said mediators of the Gaza agreement are working to prevent Israel from benefiting from any strike, and to ensure that halting or swiftly ending its repercussions is vital in forcing Israel to implement the deal.
He added that Netanyahu supports a strike because it would serve his interests, warning that if war breaks out, it will reach Israel and the Gaza agreement will be disrupted.
