Former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is seeing his bid for a third term unravel, undermined by rising US pressure and deepening splits within the Shiite Coordination Framework, as Kurdish parties insist the presidency cannot be decided until agreement on the next prime minister is reached.
A senior figure in the Coordination Framework told Asharq Al-Awsat that Maliki’s prospects for a third term had “fallen dramatically,” saying his continued insistence on running was aimed less at returning to office than at blocking Mohammed Shia al-Sudani from becoming prime minister.
The source, who requested anonymity, said Sudani had previously stepped aside in Maliki’s favor in exchange for a pledge of support if Maliki failed to form a government, an understanding Maliki is now trying to exploit politically.
Even if he does not win, the source said, Maliki wants to retain decisive influence over the choice of an alternative candidate.
The source added that all factions within the Coordination Framework were aware of US messages rejecting Maliki’s candidacy even before he formally announced it.
In a televised interview, Maliki denied that Sudani had sought guarantees in return for backing him, saying Sudani had voluntarily withdrawn from the race for prime minister, a move that “surprised me,” he said.
Efforts in Kurdistan fall short
Meanwhile, a Coordination Framework delegation's visit to Erbil and Sulaimaniyah failed to soften the Kurdish position on the presidency, according to informed political sources.
The delegation, led by Sudani and including Hadi al-Amiri, head of the Badr Organization, and Muhsin Al-Mandalawi, leader of the Al-Asas Alliance, had sought to resolve a dispute over the presidency. Instead, it returned facing two interconnected crises from the Kurdish perspective: the presidency and the premiership.
Sources said Kurdish leaders felt that Shiite factions had effectively settled the choice of prime minister.
In Erbil and Sulaimaniyah, the delegation encountered a unified Kurdish stance calling for deciding on the prime minister first, particularly amid US pressure following a tweet by US President Donald Trump warning of the consequences of appointing Maliki as prime minister.
The two main Kurdish parties fear being placed on the front line of confrontation with Washington, the sources said, especially after the arrival of a new US envoy who visited Baghdad, met Sudani in his capacity as caretaker prime minister, and spoke by phone with Masoud Barzani, leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, one day after Trump’s tweet.
Two-day deadline
After returning to Baghdad, Coordination Framework factions decided to give Kurdish parties an additional two days to reach a consensus on a presidential candidate before moving toward a parliamentary majority option that could cost one of the Kurdish parties the post.
At the same time, Kurdish political and media discourse has grown more ambiguous, with both the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan insisting the presidency is their established entitlement.
In this connection, Farhad al-Atrash, second deputy speaker of the Iraqi parliament and a senior Kurdistan Democratic Party figure, denied any internal party disputes over the presidency, describing media reports as “far from the truth and reality.”
In a statement, Atrash said any decision taken by the Kurdish leadership, including Masoud Barzani, would be respected and pursued in the public interest.
Maliki deepens rifts
Maliki’s recent televised remarks have further complicated matters within the Coordination Framework, with informed sources describing them as confused and contradictory, deepening internal divisions.
While some Framework factions have sought to downplay Trump’s tweet, dismissing it as paid for or written from inside Iraq, sources said the greater damage stemmed from Maliki’s own statements rather than from external pressure.
In a notable development, Bloomberg reported that Washington had warned Iraqi officials it could restrict Iraq’s access to oil export revenues if Maliki were appointed prime minister, citing his perceived closeness to Iran.
The warning was conveyed during a meeting last week in Türkiye between Iraqi Central Bank Governor Ali al-Allaq and senior US officials, coinciding with Trump’s tweet that said Iraqi politicians could not choose Maliki.
Sources familiar with Tehran’s strategy said Iran had urged its allies in Iraq to resist Trump’s pressure, adding that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had last month dispatched Esmail Qaani, commander of the Quds Force, to Baghdad with a message congratulating Maliki on his nomination, a move that angered Washington.
“Ready to step aside under conditions”
In the interview, Maliki said he was ready to withdraw his candidacy if a majority within the Coordination Framework requested it, denying that his nomination would trigger US sanctions on Iraq.
He said his candidacy was “a purely Iraqi matter,” adding that internal and external parties had misled the US president, and suggesting the tweet may have been written from inside Iraq.
With the political deadlock continuing, the battle over the premiership appears set to grow more complex as external pressure intersects with internal calculations and consensus within the Shiite camp continues to erode.
