Lebanon is set to enter direct negotiations with Israel for the first time, marking a fundamental shift in how the state manages the conflict and underscoring its insistence on sovereign decision-making free of external tutelage.
The shift follows Iranian attempts to preserve what is known as the “unity arenas” in talks due to be held in Pakistan, against firm Lebanese insistence, voiced by President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, that the Lebanese state alone is authorized to negotiate on Lebanon’s behalf.
The talks carry added weight as they come after a series of pivotal state decisions, most notably banning Hezbollah’s military wing and operations and restricting weapons in Beirut to legitimate forces. They also follow steps rejecting Iranian interference in Lebanon, the latest being the expulsion of the Iranian ambassador.
These moves intersect directly with calls to disarm Hezbollah, an issue set to dominate the negotiations, especially as Israel moves to link any withdrawal from southern Lebanon to tangible progress on that front.
The developments have angered Hezbollah. Officials and supporters have sharply criticized the move, going so far as to accuse Prime Minister Nawaf Salam of treason.
Hezbollah supporters also staged a protest against Salam on Thursday and Friday after the government decided to make Beirut a demilitarized city.
Blow to Hezbollah
Lebanese Forces MP Razi El Hage said Hezbollah had bet on Lebanon being included in a ceasefire deal between the United States and Iran, allowing it to declare what he described as a false victory and use it to pressure the government to reverse its decisions.
He said the state is now more serious than ever about imposing monopoly over arms.
Political analyst Ali al-Amine said Hezbollah has long sought to turn political and military developments into what appears to be victory, even if illusory, relying on an organized propaganda machine and its influence over its support base.
“Had a ceasefire in Lebanon coincided with a truce involving Iran, the party would have rushed to declare a divine victory and stage celebrations,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.
But recent developments have undercut that approach, he added. Continued Israeli strikes coincided with the Lebanese state taking action, weakening Hezbollah’s ability to exploit developments in its favor, he explained.
He pointed to Salam’s initiative and Aoun’s efforts to cement the principle that the Lebanese state alone negotiates on behalf of Lebanon, a shift that has angered Hezbollah.
Hezbollah’s problem is exclusion
Al-Amine said Hezbollah’s core problem is not with the negotiations themselves. The party has long taken part in them through Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, including during maritime border talks.
“The issue now is that it no longer leads or monopolizes this track, nor does Iran behind it,” he said.
He added that Salam’s clear statement that Lebanon negotiates for itself, followed by Aoun’s backing, marked a turning point. Hezbollah responded with a political campaign that went as far as accusing Salam of being “Zionist.”
Israel’s announcement that it is ready to negotiate deepened the shock, he said, not because of the talks themselves but because the initiative had slipped from Hezbollah’s hands.
Al-Amine also pointed to a shift in the US approach, with no back channels opened with Hezbollah and clear support instead for the Lebanese government as the sole negotiating party.
Test for the state
As the outcome of the talks remains uncertain, al-Amine said the next phase hinges on the Lebanese state, particularly Salam and Aoun, taking practical steps to strengthen its position.
Chief among these is implementing the decision to make Beirut a demilitarized city, a key step toward restoring state authority and institutions, he said, noting that success will require serious Arab and international backing.
Hage said the negotiations mark a step forward and will focus on one central issue, the state’s ability to guarantee exclusive control over arms.
He added that Lebanese Forces ministers had submitted a memorandum to the Cabinet outlining a clear legal and political path to exit the current crisis, hold those responsible to account, and pursue Iran in international forums over the losses caused by Hezbollah dragging Lebanon to the war.
