Rivalries within Iraq’s Shiite Coordination Framework have led to a political deadlock over naming a new prime minister, as internal disagreements persist over both the selection mechanism and the division of ministerial posts among the bloc’s factions.
According to sources, a meeting of Coordination Framework leaders - postponed several times in recent days - will focus on finding a solution that reconciles two approaches: one based on the “electoral weight” of member blocs, and the other on “political consensus” to choose a compromise candidate acceptable to all parties.
The bloc has failed to agree on a nominee during two previous meetings after votes between two leading candidates ended in a tie, deepening divisions and delaying a decision. The upcoming session is seen as potentially decisive, though another postponement remains possible if differences persist.
An Iraqi political source said a decision on the prime minister could come within hours as the constitutional deadline approaches.
“I expect the matter to be settled one way or another, because next Saturday marks the final deadline, and continued delay is already having a negative impact even among their own base,” the source said.
The source added that if the alliance adopts the criterion of electoral weight, Ihsan al-Awadi, the candidate backed by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, would have the strongest chances. However, if the decision remains confined to the bloc’s leadership, the contest would stay within a pool of 12 votes, with the balance possibly tipping in favor of Bassem al-Badri.
The dispute extends beyond the selection mechanism to include internal bargaining over the distribution of ministries and sovereign portfolios. Some factions have tied their support for any candidate to the size of their share in the next government, further complicating negotiations.
Two prominent candidates have emerged with nearly equal backing within the Coordination Framework, resulting in a deadlock and reviving the option of a compromise candidate if neither consensus nor a majority decision can be reached.
The Coordination Framework, formed after the most recent elections, includes several major Shiite forces, among them alliances led by former prime ministers Nouri al-Maliki and Haider al-Abadi, as well as the bloc of current Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, who is heading a caretaker government. Political pressure is mounting as the constitutional deadline nears for the president to designate a new prime minister.
The election of President Nizar Amidi has triggered the formal government formation process, with a constitutional deadline set to expire on April 26, placing political forces under pressure to avoid a return to prolonged deadlock.
With complications persisting, there are many scenarios, including a last-minute agreement, further delay, or a shift toward a compromise candidate. The standoff underscores fragile cohesion within the Shiite camp and a widening gap between electoral calculations and the demands of political consensus.