Despite the favorable conditions surrounding Prime Minister-designate Ali al-Zaidi’s efforts to form a new government, including backing from local and regional parties, observers say he still faces serious challenges, foremost among them US pressure to bar representatives of armed factions from joining the cabinet.
US President Donald Trump, voicing support last week for al-Zaidi’s nomination, said he wanted to see a new Iraqi government “free of terrorism.”
His remarks were widely interpreted as opposition to the inclusion of Iran-aligned armed factions that Washington has designated as terrorist groups.
Asaib Ahl al-Haq stands firm
Alongside US pressure, al-Zaidi faces competing domestic demands, particularly from groups seeking cabinet posts despite being under US sanctions. Chief among them is Asaib Ahl al-Haq, led by Qais al-Khazali, placing the premier-designate between two difficult constraints in his government formation efforts.
Hussein al-Shihani, a member of the political bureau of the Sadiqoun bloc, the political wing of Asaib Ahl al-Haq, said in media remarks that the group is seeking one of the deputy prime minister posts.
He said the bloc is targeting underperforming ministries “to prove its ability to reform them,” including the industry ministry to revive the “Made in Iraq” label, and the education ministry, where it claims to have a reform plan.
Asaib Ahl al-Haq held key cabinet portfolios in the previous two governments, including the culture and higher education ministries, and currently occupies the position of first deputy speaker of parliament.
Shihani said the post of first deputy speaker was valued at nine or 10 “points,” with each point equivalent to a parliamentary seat, adding that Sadiqoun aims to secure a deputy prime minister position based on its share.
It remains unclear how al-Zaidi will reconcile competing international and domestic pressures.
Some political and media circles warn that competition among factions, including Asaib Ahl al-Haq, over key posts around the prime minister-designate could shorten the lifespan of his prospective government.
Key hurdles
Political analyst Ihsan al-Shammari said al-Zaidi’s initial pledge to form an inclusive government could conflict with US conditions that it be free of militias designated as terrorist organizations.
He said this presents a major challenge, particularly as al-Zaidi is counting heavily on US support.
Shammari added that the issue could complicate negotiations with the political wings of armed factions, which now hold significant representation in parliament, making it difficult for al-Zaidi to bypass their influence.
He said al-Zaidi may resort to compromise, persuading factions to nominate figures who appear independent but remain loyal to them, potentially easing US pressure.
Failure to navigate these challenges could have major consequences, Shammari said, potentially leading to a repeat of the model seen under Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, where armed groups were represented in government, a scenario unlikely to be accepted by Washington.
If faction-linked figures are included in the cabinet, it could reinforce domestic perceptions of their return to executive power, potentially undermining the government’s chances of success, he added.
Shammari said al-Zaidi may ultimately seek a balance between factional pressures and US demands, possibly by convincing Washington that such groups will not be directly represented in government.
Navigating the faction dilemma
Firas Elias, a political science professor at the University of Mosul specializing in Iranian studies, said it would be difficult for al-Zaidi to form a government “free of terrorism” in the sense outlined by Trump.
“The proposal reflects a US political vision more than a reality that can be achieved within Iraq’s current structure,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.
He said excluding these factions entirely from government is unrealistic, not only due to their influence on the ground but also because they are part of the political balance within the Coordination Framework, which is expected to serve as the main backer of al-Zaidi’s government.
Accordingly, he said, addressing the faction issue is unlikely to come through direct confrontation, but rather by recalibrating their role and limiting their influence in line with state requirements, without triggering open conflict.
The most likely scenario, Elias said, is not a government free of factions, but a more disciplined administration that contains these forces and redirects their role within the framework of the state.
