Lebanese-Israeli negotiations appear headed for a period of drift, with no serious signs that political and technical discussions will translate into practical steps.
The seventh round, held in Rome last week, ended without tangible results.
The next round will be held next month, a State Department official announced Tuesday.
"The political track will reconvene in Rome in early September, and conversations will continue in Beirut, Jerusalem, and Washington in the interim," the official said on condition of anonymity.
Lebanese ministerial sources following the negotiations said the deadlock was driven mainly by Israeli and US political calculations, making a meaningful breakthrough unlikely in the near term.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not appear ready to make concessions or take major steps before Israel’s elections in October, the sources told Asharq Al-Awsat.
With the outcome uncertain, they said, Netanyahu would be reluctant to approve a withdrawal from areas in southern Lebanon that could carry domestic political costs or be used against him during the campaign.
Limited US pressure
The sources said Washington was also unlikely to put heavy pressure on Netanyahu at this stage, despite continuing to sponsor the negotiations.
They linked that caution to US domestic politics ahead of the midterm elections and the administration’s desire to maintain strong ties with Israel and segments of the Jewish American electorate.
That leaves Washington with limited room to push the Israeli government, the sources said.
The United States appears keen to keep the talks alive and prevent their collapse, but not to press Israel into major steps before the Israeli political picture becomes clearer.
Talks, but no implementation
The seventh round underscored the limits of the current process, the sources said.
“If there had been a serious desire to make progress, it would at least have been possible to agree on the pilot areas and identify them by name as a prelude to implementation,” they said.
Instead, discussions shifted to border issues, working mechanisms and technical arrangements.
No practical steps were agreed, including Lebanon’s demand for an end to the war and destruction, the sources said.
The problem, they added, is that the talks are increasingly focused on mechanisms and details while the political decisions needed to begin implementation remain absent.
That risks turning the negotiations into an open-ended process with no tangible outcome.
Prisoners and remains
The sources said bringing the issue of Israeli remains into the talks and linking it to the prisoners’ file was also pulling attention away from the core issues.
If there were a serious and positive effort to address the prisoners’ issue, they said, the International Committee of the Red Cross should at least be allowed to meet them, something Israel continues to refuse.
Raising such issues without taking clear steps only prolongs the negotiations, the sources said, rather than moving toward the issues Lebanon wants addressed.
Against that backdrop, Beirut is using its channels with US officials to press Israel, at least to halt the continuing bulldozing and destruction in the south.
Lebanon is stressing to Washington that ongoing destruction, alongside negotiations, makes it difficult to portray the process as serious or capable of producing a settlement, the sources said.
Beirut hopes for some progress on that front in the near term.
Could Lebanon walk away?
On whether Lebanon might suspend its participation, the sources pointed to an episode during the seventh round in Rome.
Lebanese delegation head Ambassador Simon Karam wanted to withdraw after Israel threatened to strike the town of Mansouri and called for its evacuation, they said.
The Lebanese presidency, however, favored continuing the talks.
Its view was that any suspension should come from the other side, not Lebanon, so Beirut would not be blamed for derailing the negotiations.
Iran remains a factor
The US-Iranian negotiations are also feeding into the Lebanese-Israeli track, alongside Israel’s elections, the sources said.
Any progress between Washington and Tehran could affect the situation in Lebanon.
The main impact, they said, would be on efforts to disarm Hezbollah, ease tensions and push the group toward a more positive approach to Lebanon’s negotiating track.
