The confrontation in southern Lebanon is entering a sensitive phase as Israeli military operations continue alongside US-mediated negotiations, while Israel’s Channel 12 has reported that the Israeli military is preparing for the possibility of several days of intensified fighting in Lebanon.
The report has raised questions over whether any escalation would remain contained or spread, although there has been no public indication of a decision to launch a wider war or set a deadline for negotiations.
Channel 12 reported that Israel remains determined to complete its operations in the Ali al-Taher Heights and linked the intensity of military activity to the negotiations. Washington, meanwhile, has reiterated its commitment to the “pilot zones” plan, maintaining that Hezbollah’s disarmament is part of the process.
Retired Lebanese Brig. Gen. Khalil Gemayel told Asharq Al-Awsat that Israeli preparations for several days of fighting did not, in his assessment, mean Israel intends to launch a broader war.
Rather, it wants to settle the battle for the Ali al-Taher Heights, securing a battlefield achievement, he added.
Any expansion of the confrontation would largely depend on the scale of Hezbollah’s response, particularly if it broadened its operations and struck Israeli communities, potentially prompting Israel to widen the fighting, he explained.
Gemayel described Ali al-Taher as a key defensive hub for Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, noting that Israeli forces were attempting to advance gradually along the hills toward sensitive positions, tunnel entrances and underground facilities with the assistance of specialized engineering units.
Hezbollah intervenes locally when Israeli troops approach critical points in its defensive network, he remarked.
Capturing the area could give Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a military and political achievement while dealing Hezbollah a significant military loss, he noted.
Retired Brig. Gen. Naji Malaeb, meanwhile, said Israel’s escalation could be part of an attempt to draw Hezbollah into a response that would provide grounds for widening its operations.
He told Asharq Al-Awsat Israel may have used an incident that caused casualties in the Ali al-Taher Heights as a pretext to expand its operational reach beyond areas it occupies. He questioned whether Israel was attempting to provoke Hezbollah into a response that would allow it to broaden its military campaign.
Malaeb said increasingly forceful rhetoric from Hezbollah and its secretary-general, Naim Qassem, including warnings that Israel would “pay the price,” made that scenario worth considering.
A wider escalation would not necessarily begin with a ground advance. Israel could instead rely heavily on air power and expand its strikes to other areas, he went on to say.
Malaeb warned that expanding the conflict from the south deeper into Lebanon could also bring Iran into the confrontation, particularly if Beirut’s southern suburbs were targeted.
An Iranian response could provide Israel with a pretext to resume attacks on Iran even without US participation, he argued.
On the ground, the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) reported a “significant increase in Israeli military activity in southern Lebanon” over the previous two weeks, recording an average of 137 projectiles a day between August 5 and 16.
Israeli operations continued across several areas. Drones dropped explosives around the Ali al-Taher Heights and Dabsha Hill, while Mansouri came under artillery fire. Strikes and shelling were also reported around Wadi al-Hujeir, Qantara, Aitaroun, Khiam, Hadatha and Mais al-Jabal, while Israeli forces carried out explosions in Bani Hayyan and Majdal Zoun.
