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More Talks Needed to Resume Iraq's Northern Oil Exports

A worker performs checks at Türkiye's Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, February 19, 2014. REUTERS/Umit Bektas
A worker performs checks at Türkiye's Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, February 19, 2014. REUTERS/Umit Bektas
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More Talks Needed to Resume Iraq's Northern Oil Exports

A worker performs checks at Türkiye's Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, February 19, 2014. REUTERS/Umit Bektas
A worker performs checks at Türkiye's Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, February 19, 2014. REUTERS/Umit Bektas

Further talks will be needed in order to resume Iraq's northern oil exports, two officials told Reuters today following a meeting between a Turkish energy technical delegation and Iraqi oil officials in Baghdad on Monday.

"We are discussing all technical aspects regarding the restarting of oil exports. A decision to resume flows will not happen today and more meetings are expected," an oil official familiar with the meeting said on condition of anonymity.

Türkiye halted Iraq's 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) of northern exports through the Iraq-Türkiye pipeline on March 25 after an arbitration ruling by the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC).

Türkiye wants to negotiate the size of damages it was ordered to pay in the arbitration ruling and also seeks clarification on other open arbitration cases, said another oil official.

Türkiye’s decision to suspend exports followed an arbitration ruling by the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), which ordered Türkiye to pay Baghdad damages of $1.5 billion for unauthorized exports by the KRG between 2014 and 2018, Reuters said.

"A decision to restart oil flow needs political talks on higher levels. Issues blocking the resumption of oil exports are more political than technical," said a second oil official.

Attempts to restart the pipeline were delayed by Türkiye’s presidential elections last month and discussions between state-owned marketer SOMO and the KRG over an export deal, which has now been reached.

Hopes of a restart increased when Türkiye’s President Tayyip Erdogan named Alparslan Bayraktar as energy minister on June 3 as part of his cabinet for his new five-year term.

Reuters estimates that the Iraqi Kurdish region has lost more than $2.2 billion over the 87 days of the pipeline outage, based on exports of 375,000 barrels per day and the KRG's historical discount against Brent crude.

Baghdad has now approved its 2023 budget, in which the Kurdistan region will receive 12.67% of the 198.9 trillion-dinar ($153 billion) allocation.

But the region needs to hand its oil to state-owned marketer SOMO in order to receive its allocation and the pipeline halt has shut in almost of its oil output.

The KRG has been dependent on financial transfers from Baghdad, which have so far reached around 1.6 trillion Iraqi dinars ($1.22 billion), according to four Iraqi government officials.

US congress members have urged US secretary of state Antony Blinken to continue pressing Türkiye and Iraq to resume oil exports, according to a letter dated June 15 seen by Reuters.

The letter states that the pipeline halt has cut off the Kurdistan region from over 80% of its revenue, raising concerns over the region's economic stability and the risk of a "significant humanitarian crisis."

"With global supplies of oil and gas facing a continuing threat from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, it's more important than ever to have harmony within Iraq's oil sector," the letter signed by Michael Waltz, Don Bacon and Seth Moulton said.

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Business

Goldman Sachs Sees October Fed Hike after Hawkish Signal

FILE PHOTO: The Federal Reserve building is set against a blue sky in Washington, US, May 1, 2020. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: The Federal Reserve building is set against a blue sky in Washington, US, May 1, 2020. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo
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Goldman Sachs Sees October Fed Hike after Hawkish Signal

FILE PHOTO: The Federal Reserve building is set against a blue sky in Washington, US, May 1, 2020. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: The Federal Reserve building is set against a blue sky in Washington, US, May 1, 2020. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo

Goldman Sachs now expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by another quarter point in October, making it one of the first major Wall Street banks to forecast consecutive rate hikes following the US central bank's hawkish signal on Wednesday.

The call represents a reversal of Goldman's earlier view that the US Fed had completed its tightening cycle after September's quarter-point increase.

Goldman said the Fed's updated rate projections, which showed a strong ⁠majority of policymakers ⁠expecting at least one more increase this year, pointed to a "two-hike baseline" for 2026.

The brokerage said October was the most likely timing for the next move because policymakers framed further tightening as supporting "a timelier return" to the Fed's 2% inflation target.

The ⁠Fed earlier on Wednesday raised interest rates by 25 basis points to a 3.75%-4.00% range.

Goldman said the meeting was more hawkish than expected, citing policymakers' rate projections, an upward revision to the neutral interest rate and Chair Kevin Warsh's repeated description of the move as having only "removed a dose of accommodation."

Traders see roughly 50% odds of another quarter-point Fed rate hike in October, according to CME Group's ⁠FedWatch tool, ⁠up sharply after policymakers signaled further tightening could be needed.

Goldman's revised forecast leaves Bank of America Global Research as the only other major brokerage expecting a more aggressive tightening path, with BofA projecting rate hikes in October and December, Reuters reported.

Markets will also be watching policy decisions from the Bank of England, due later in the day, and the Bank of Japan on Friday for further clues on the global interest-rate outlook.

Business

Saudi Money Market Funds Face Investment Reshuffle

The Saudi Capital Market Authority’s headquarters in Riyadh (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The Saudi Capital Market Authority’s headquarters in Riyadh (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Saudi Money Market Funds Face Investment Reshuffle

The Saudi Capital Market Authority’s headquarters in Riyadh (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The Saudi Capital Market Authority’s headquarters in Riyadh (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Saudi money market funds are entering a new phase of liquidity management and portfolio restructuring as new rules cap foreign investments at 5% of net asset value.

Fund managers will have to balance returns, liquidity and risk more carefully.

The rules do not require funds to exit existing foreign investments immediately. The Capital Market Authority has given managers transition periods to bring portfolios into compliance. This allows deposits and murabaha transactions to mature before funds are reallocated, avoiding early exits that could hurt returns or disrupt liquidity management.

The measures also require foreign counterparties to hold investment-grade credit ratings, strengthening protection against overseas exposure risks.

Financial analysts say the main impact may not be an immediate shift in capital flows. Instead, the rules are likely to reshape money market fund portfolios and how managers allocate liquidity between domestic and foreign instruments, based on returns, liquidity and credit quality.

As investment options in the Saudi market expand, the restructuring could direct greater attention toward domestic liquidity instruments. The transition periods will allow managers to adjust gradually, retain flexibility over existing investments and reduce the risks of rapid reinvestment.

Investor protection

Financial analyst Abdullah Al-Jabali told Asharq Al-Awsat that the move was part of the Capital Market Authority’s efforts to regulate higher-risk investments and strengthen investor protection, particularly amid global market shifts and continued uncertainty over interest rates.

The decision seeks to reduce Saudi money market funds’ exposure to foreign investments and limit the impact of related volatility, he said. The timing and scale of interest-rate cuts in the coming years remain unclear.

Al-Jabali said the measures go beyond imposing a cap on foreign investments. They also tighten requirements governing the entities through which funds may invest, taking into account credit ratings, solvency and reliability. This would help reduce risk and safeguard investors’ money.

The rules also seek to prevent money market funds from concentrating investments in instruments or entities that could be difficult to exit when needed. This would strengthen liquidity and improve funds’ ability to respond to market changes, he said.

Al-Jabali expected further regulations to follow, potentially covering other foreign investments such as real estate funds, financing funds and foreign sukuk. The measures could also extend to funds’ private-equity investments outside the kingdom.

He said the changes reflected the authority’s efforts to reduce risks linked to some investment practices, strengthen the investment environment and protect investors in the Saudi market.

Financial analyst Tariq Al-Atiq told Asharq Al-Awsat that the decision was primarily intended to reduce risk, strengthen investor protection and impose greater discipline on the placement of liquidity outside the kingdom.

Money market funds typically invest in deposits, murabaha transactions and short-term sukuk. Financial companies affiliated with banks manage a large proportion of these funds, he said.

A fund valued in Saudi riyals does not necessarily hold all its investments inside the kingdom, Al-Atiq said. Some liquidity may be placed with Gulf or foreign banks in search of higher returns. The decision would reduce that exposure and return some liquidity to the domestic market.

Giving funds up to two years to comply takes into account the fixed maturities of deposits and murabaha transactions, he said. Early exits could hurt fund performance, while allowing foreign deposits to expire without renewal would support a gradual, orderly transition.

Gradual compliance

The Saudi Capital Market Authority has capped foreign investments by public money market funds at 5% of net asset value and given managers transition periods to bring existing holdings into compliance.

Under a circular sent to capital market institutions, managers of public money market funds whose foreign investments exceed 5% must comply with the cap within two years of the circular’s date.

The requirement also affects transactions made during the transition. Until compliance is achieved, managers must not make an investment or enter into or renew any transaction that would breach the limit.

Funds with foreign investments exceeding 20% of net asset value face a shorter deadline. Their managers must reduce that exposure to below 20% within six months of the circular’s date.

They must then continue reducing foreign investments until they reach the final 5% cap within the timeframe set by the circular.

The rules therefore set different paths based on the level of foreign exposure. Funds above the 5% cap have up to two years to comply, while those above 20% must first bring their exposure below 20% within six months.

The authority also required all foreign investments by public money market funds to be made with counterparties holding investment-grade credit ratings issued by licensed credit-rating agencies.

Managers whose funds hold foreign investments that do not meet this requirement must bring them into compliance within two years of the circular’s date.

The Capital Market Authority stressed that capital market institutions must comply with the circular, the Capital Market Law and its implementing regulations. It designated the Collective Investment Schemes Compliance Department to answer questions about the new requirements.

Business

Saudi Tourism Minister Announces Launch of Second Edition of TOURISE Forum in March

Tourists are seen at Saudi Arabia's AlUla. (SPA)
Tourists are seen at Saudi Arabia's AlUla. (SPA)
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Saudi Tourism Minister Announces Launch of Second Edition of TOURISE Forum in March

Tourists are seen at Saudi Arabia's AlUla. (SPA)
Tourists are seen at Saudi Arabia's AlUla. (SPA)

Saudi Minister of Tourism and Chairman of the TOURISE Forum Board Ahmed Al-Khateeb announced on Wednesday the launch of the second edition of the “TOURISE 2027” Forum, under the theme “Alliances That Move the World,” to be held in Riyadh from March 23 to 25, 2027.

The forum, held under the patronage of Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, Crown Prince and Prime Minister, brings together leading figures from the tourism, technology, investment, sustainability, culture and transport sectors from around the world to discuss the key opportunities and challenges facing these sectors and help shape the next phase of global tourism.

The forum comes as Saudi Arabia presents a prominent example of what can be achieved in the tourism sector as an integrated economic ecosystem. The Kingdom surpassed its initial target of welcoming 100 million visitors annually in 2023, seven years ahead of schedule, and raised its ambition to 150 million visitors annually by 2030.

The TOURISE Forum serves as an attractive platform for investment. Its inaugural edition last year succeeded in catalyzing investments worth $113 billion, spanning destinations, hotels, retail, talent development and AI-powered platforms, demonstrating how cross-sector collaboration can turn ambition into investment and practical action.

The theme of the forum’s second edition, “Alliances That Move the World,” underscores the importance of forging alliances that transcend sectors, borders and business fields, connecting tourism with capital, technology and infrastructure to unlock investment opportunities, accelerate innovation and facilitate the traveler experience, supporting a more growing, sustainable and inclusive global tourism economy.

Minister Al-Khateeb said: “No single destination, company or organization will shape the future of tourism. Rather, it will be determined by the strength of the alliances we build together. Saudi Arabia has witnessed first-hand what can be achieved when ambitions, investments and strategic partnerships come together.”

“Through the second edition of the TOURISE Forum, we are inviting the world to Riyadh to build the alliances that will shape the next 50 years of the tourism sector,” he added.

The Ministry of Tourism announced the first group of speakers for the 2027 edition, comprising leading figures from the tourism, hospitality, technology and destination development sectors. They will showcase their organizations’ contributions to facilitating travel, tourism and mobility, as well as the most promising areas for investment in the global tourism sector.