Russia Back in Investors’ Focus after Weekend Mutiny

Private military company (PMC) Wagner Group servicemen prepare to leave downtown Rostov-on-Don, southern Russia, 24 June 2023. (EPA)
Private military company (PMC) Wagner Group servicemen prepare to leave downtown Rostov-on-Don, southern Russia, 24 June 2023. (EPA)
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Russia Back in Investors’ Focus after Weekend Mutiny

Private military company (PMC) Wagner Group servicemen prepare to leave downtown Rostov-on-Don, southern Russia, 24 June 2023. (EPA)
Private military company (PMC) Wagner Group servicemen prepare to leave downtown Rostov-on-Don, southern Russia, 24 June 2023. (EPA)

Some investors were watching for ripple effects from an aborted mutiny in Russia on Saturday, expecting a move into safe havens such as US government bonds and the dollar when markets open later on Sunday.

Heavily armed Russian mercenaries led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a former ally of President Vladimir Putin and founder of the Wagner army, advanced most of the way to Moscow after capturing the city of Rostov, but then halted their approach, de-escalating a major challenge.

On Saturday night, they began withdrawing from the Rostov military headquarters they had seized, a Reuters witness said.

Financial markets have often been volatile since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, which caused ruptures in markets and through global finance as banks and investors rushed to unwind exposure.

After Saturday's events, some investors said they were focused on the potential impact to safe-haven assets such as US Treasuries and on commodities prices, as Russia is a major energy supplier.

"It certainly remains to be seen what happens in the next day or two, but if there remains uncertainty about leadership in Russia, investors may flock to safe havens," said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US rates strategy at TD Securities in New York.

Goldberg said that despite the de-escalation, "investors may remain nervous about subsequent instability, and could remain cautious."

The action sparked attention globally, and revived an old fear in Washington about what happens to Russia's nuclear stockpile in the event of domestic upheaval.

"Markets typically do not respond well to events that are unfolding and are uncertain," particularly relating to Putin and Russia, said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial.

"If the uncertainty escalates, you're going to see Treasuries get a bid, gold will get a bid and the Japanese yen tends to gain in situations like this," Krosby said, mentioning typical safe-haven assets that investors buy when risks rise.

Alastair Winter, Global Investment Strategist at Argyll Europe said that while the de-escalation meant markets may now not react much, "Putin has clearly been weakened and there will be more developments."

He saw the US dollar finding "some support as the market returns to speculating over rate hikes and cuts and recession in different economies."

Stocks have been on a mostly upward path in recent months, which some said could make them more vulnerable to a selloff. Year-to-date the S&P 500 is up 13%, although it has lost steam in recent days with interest rates in focus. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave testimony last week in which he signaled more interest rate hikes ahead.

Some saw little reaction as the situation seemed defused. Rich Steinberg, chief market strategist at the Colony Group in Boca Raton, Florida, said that "markets will kind of treat this as another geopolitical risk" and "some frayed nerves were calmed in the short run" by the de-escalation.



Saudi Energy Minister: Petroleum and Petrochemical Law Guarantees Fair Competition for Investors

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. (Reuters)
Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. (Reuters)
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Saudi Energy Minister: Petroleum and Petrochemical Law Guarantees Fair Competition for Investors

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. (Reuters)
Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. (Reuters)

Shortly after the Saudi Cabinet approved the Petroleum and Petrochemical Law, Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said on Tuesday the regulation aims to achieve a set of goals, mainly regulating petroleum and petrochemical operations, in a manner that contributes to economic growth.

The law also backs efforts to attract investments, elevates employment rates, upgrades energy efficiency, safeguards consumers and licensees, while ensuring product quality and creating a competitive environment that fuels fair economic yields for investors, the Minister said.

Prince Abdulaziz expressed his gratitude to Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, King Salman bin Abdulaziz and Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Crown Prince and Prime Minister, for the Cabinet’s decision to approve the new law.

He praised the Saudi leadership for its support and empowerment of the energy sector, and its contribution in boosting the sector’s productivity to achieve the targets of Vision 2030.

The new law helps in building the local energy sector’s legislative framework, Prince Abdulaziz went on to say.

“This is accomplished by leveraging the top-tier international practices, boosting performance, achieving national objectives, and ensuring the optimal use of petroleum and petrochemical resources,” he said.

The new law, replacing the Petroleum Products Trade Law, helps ensure the security and reliability of local petroleum and petrochemical supplies, the minister explained.

This is on top of achieving optimal utilization of raw materials, supporting the localization of the industry’s value chain, enabling national strategies and plans, and enhancing the control and supervision of petroleum and petrochemical operations to step up compliance with laws and regulations, he added.

The new law combats practice violations by regulating the activities of use, sale, purchase, transportation, storage, export, import, packaging, and processing of these resources.

It also regulates the establishment and operation of distribution channels and petrochemical facilities, said Prince Abdulaziz.