Türkiye Lira Hits New Low After Bank Rules’ Rollback 

A man draws some Turkish Lira banknotes from an ATM in Istanbul, Türkiye, 22 June 2023. (EPA)
A man draws some Turkish Lira banknotes from an ATM in Istanbul, Türkiye, 22 June 2023. (EPA)
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Türkiye Lira Hits New Low After Bank Rules’ Rollback 

A man draws some Turkish Lira banknotes from an ATM in Istanbul, Türkiye, 22 June 2023. (EPA)
A man draws some Turkish Lira banknotes from an ATM in Istanbul, Türkiye, 22 June 2023. (EPA)

The Turkish lira slid as much as 3% to a record low against the dollar on Monday, after the central bank took steps to simplify policy, while an official and bankers said the bank had stopped using its reserves to support the lira.

The lira weakened as far as 26.05 against the US currency, surpassing last week's all-time low of 25.74. It trimmed its losses to 25.84 by 0945 GMT.

It is down 28% so far this year, largely after the re-election in late May of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has since moved to backtrack on his years of unorthodox economic policy including slashing rates despite soaring inflation.

Two big steps were taken in recent days: the central bank under new Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan raised rates by 650 basis points to 15% on Thursday, a substantial tightening even though it fell short of market expectations.

Then on Sunday, the central bank began rolling back parts of the dozens of rules and regulations it had adopted since 2021 that left debt, credit and forex markets heavily state managed - and that were meant to encourage lira holdings.

With the use of central bank reserves to protect the lira’s value before the election, reserves fell to a historical low in early June, with net reserves at minus $5.7 billion. They recovered in the following two weeks.

The simplification steps at the weekend were meant to free up markets and ensure stability, the central bank said at the weekend, while a senior official said the bank had adjusted its foreign exchange policy.

"The central bank is not intervening in any way on the exchange rate level by selling foreign currency after its interest rate decision last week," he said.

"The numbers are determined entirely by the free market. Hence, there is no use of foreign exchange reserves and a period of increasing reserves has started," he added.

His comments echoed the view of bankers that the central bank had "completely stopped" using its reserves. "The value of the lira is no longer being defended by reserves," said one trader.

"It seems the CBRT (Turkish central bank) seems to have completely abandoned the use of reserves in the forex market," said a senior banker, adding that its foreign exchange position showed increases of $1-2 billion a day.

Central bank measures

Under new central bank steps announced at the weekend, the securities maintenance ratio that banks are required to allocate to their foreign currency deposit was reduced to 5% from 10%.

Securities that banks must maintain ranged between 3% and 12% of their lira deposits, under the new standard, compared to between 3% and 17% previously.

The new regulation said banks whose lira deposits are less than 57% of total deposits will have to hold an additional seven percentage points of securities, compared to the previous seven additional points applied to banks that held less than 60% lira deposits.

"Ratios were slowly lowered, allowing banks to adjust their positions slowly and not triggering a rapid rise in interest rates, a slight relaxation of the rules would give banks room and time to maneuver about their bond portfolios," said Enver Erkan, Chief economist at Dinamik Yatirim.

"It is a comforting and positive development for the sector."

The banking stocks index on the Istanbul exchange rose about 4% after the latest moves, with the main index up more than 2%.

Bankers said that after the easing of the measures, which had pushed banks towards lira deposits, deposit rates at some banks had started to fall from the 40-45% band in a move that was expected to continue.



Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpd

Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
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Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpd

Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)

Iraq produces more than 5 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), Oil Minister Basim Mohammed told state news agency INA on Saturday.

According to Reuters, Iraq is pushing for a higher OPEC production quota as the economic fallout from the Iran war and new investment by oil majors increase pressure on Baghdad to boost output, potentially putting it at odds with the producer group.

The conflict has hit Iraq particularly hard, forcing major export cuts and depriving the state of oil revenue, which accounted for 88% of government income last year.


IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
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IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)

Central bankers around the world would need to consider any slowdown in AI-driven growth as they assess steps in their fight against inflation, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Friday.

Georgieva said concerns about dependence on the AI investment boom and high valuations were impacting markets around the world.

"Things are going up and down, and this is likely to continue," she told an audience at IMF headquarters in Washington, adding that the volatility would complicate the job of central banks at a time when risks to price stability had been growing.

A steep rout in technology stocks on Thursday rippled through markets on fears that ⁠the Democrats' victory ⁠in the US midterm elections would increase regulatory scrutiny of AI and slow the data center build-out, sending investors to the safety of bonds.

The political jitters are hitting an AI trade already on shaky footing due to worry about return on massive spending on AI-related infrastructure, with the meltdown spurring margin calls and spooking retail investors and hedge ⁠funds alike.

Georgieva said the AI investment boom was lifting growth in some countries, helping to offset a negative oil-supply shock triggered by the war in the Middle East, but it was also adding to inflationary pressures and financial stability concerns.

The IMF last month flagged significant growth and financial stability risks from a potential ending of the AI investment boom, among other factors, including a prolonged Middle East war. At the time, it warned that a steep drop in AI investment could lead to a sharp fall in asset prices, ultimately cutting global GDP ⁠by 1.1% ⁠by 2028, including a 1.8% drop in US output.

Georgieva did not repeat the downside forecast on Friday, but acknowledged the recent market volatility.

"Should there be a slowdown in the AI-driven growth impulse, it would need to be factored in as central banks assess the necessary steps in the fight against stubborn inflation," she said.

Democrats are planning to unleash a flood of new legislation targeting artificial intelligence systems and data-center development when they take control of the US Congress in January, Reuters reported on Friday, citing congressional aides and advocates.

That would mark a sharp shift from the Republican-led Congress, where lawmakers largely focused on promoting AI development and declined to pass legislation restricting the technology.


World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
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World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)

World food prices edged lower in October as weaker import demand contributed to monthly declines in cereal, dairy and meat prices, but were still nearly 6% higher than a year earlier, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said on Friday.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in international prices for a basket of food commodities, ‌averaged 133.9 points ‌in October, down from a revised ‌135.6 ⁠in September.

The index ⁠was 5.9% higher than a year earlier, but remained 16.4% below its March 2022 peak.

FAO's cereal price index fell 4.5% from September and was 12.6% lower than a year ago, as wheat and maize quotations declined. Wheat prices eased on weak import demand ⁠and improved production prospects, especially in Argentina.

"Expectations of ‌easing constraints on Black ‌Sea export flows added to the downward pressure on prices, ‌although continued disruptions to Black Sea logistics limited the decline," ‌FAO said in a statement.

Maize prices also eased after reaching a three-year high in September, pressured by the US harvest, expectations of ample supplies in South America and renewed ‌prospects of easing tensions in the Black Sea region.

Vegetable oil prices edged up 0.3%, ⁠as ⁠higher soybean and sunflower oil prices more than offset a fall in rapeseed oil prices.

Sugar prices rose 6.6%, their fourth straight monthly increase, to the highest level since December 2024, after rainfall disrupted harvesting in Brazil. They were now 28.8% above a year ago.

The dairy index fell 1.1%, as lower butter and cheese prices linked to ample supplies and subdued demand outweighed gains in milk powder.

The meat index declined 1.2%, while still slightly above its year-earlier level, as ovine and bovine meat prices fell.