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JP Morgan: Diverse Assets Can Weather Expected Recession

Steven Rees, the Managing Director of Investments for the Middle East and North Africa at JP Morgan Private Bank
Steven Rees, the Managing Director of Investments for the Middle East and North Africa at JP Morgan Private Bank
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JP Morgan: Diverse Assets Can Weather Expected Recession

Steven Rees, the Managing Director of Investments for the Middle East and North Africa at JP Morgan Private Bank
Steven Rees, the Managing Director of Investments for the Middle East and North Africa at JP Morgan Private Bank

Nowadays, the global economy is facing numerous threats that cannot be ignored. The US banking sector has experienced significant disruptions, while markets in Europe continue to grapple with rising inflation rates and the devastating effects of the ongoing Ukraine war.

Steven Rees, the Managing Director of Investments for the Middle East and North Africa at JP Morgan Private Bank, concurs with the market consensus that the US will likely face a recession in the next 6-12 months.

However, in a report sent to Asharq Al-Awsat, Rees expressed belief that diversified investment portfolios can continue to yield strong returns as the world approaches 2024.

Rees also pointed out that the worst of the stock market downturn has passed.

Regardless of the possibility of an economic recession, Rees ruled out the stock market dipping to the same levels it saw in October 2022.

According to Rees, expectations are based on several factors, including corporate profit growth, which plays a more significant role in stock market gains than many realize.

Although there’s been a slight decline in profits and their margins from their peak levels, and demand growth is slowing, corporate sales remain robust, revealed Rees.

Transportation and energy costs are low, and the dollar is weak, coupled with a less competitive job market environment, he further elaborated.

As a result, analysts’ projections for corporate earnings over the next 12 months have risen in the US, Europe, and China, Rees emphasized.

Moreover, Rees said that promising opportunities are present globally in various areas. These include investment strategies focused on companies with growth in dividend distributions, the shift towards clean energy, and the next wave of digital innovations.

Considering the diverse sectors, Rees added that healthcare and technology companies, particularly with many leading firms operating in the Middle East region, are favored.

Rees emphasized that the essence of investing revolves around constructing portfolios resilient to various types of risks in the long run.

He remarked that it might be premature to label the market as a new bull run, but added that he doesn’t believe it’s in a bearish phase either. Stocks have the potential for steady appreciation, while bonds can offer return stability.

Alternative investments also open the door to a plethora of investment opportunities, stressed Rees.

He further underscored that all these options have the capability to outperform cash in the long term, regardless of the occurrence of an economic recession.

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Business

Makkah Gears Up for Ramadan with Tourism Drive, Record Hospitality Growth  

Tourism Minister Ahmed Al-Khateeb and other officials during his inspection tour on Tuesday. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Tourism Minister Ahmed Al-Khateeb and other officials during his inspection tour on Tuesday. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Makkah Gears Up for Ramadan with Tourism Drive, Record Hospitality Growth  

Tourism Minister Ahmed Al-Khateeb and other officials during his inspection tour on Tuesday. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Tourism Minister Ahmed Al-Khateeb and other officials during his inspection tour on Tuesday. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Tourism has raised the readiness of Makkah’s hospitality sector to its highest level ahead of the holy month of Ramadan, stressing that serving pilgrims and visitors remains a top national priority.

Makkah is preparing to receive worshippers and visitors amid a marked expansion in hospitality capacity. The city now has more than 2,200 licensed accommodation facilities, reflecting growth of 35 percent over the past year. The number of licensed hotel rooms has exceeded 380,000, up 25 percent, while total domestic and inbound tourism spending is projected to surpass SAR 143 billion ($38.1 billion) in 2025.

The wider Makkah region recorded unprecedented performance indicators last year, both in visitor numbers and tourism spending, underscoring sustained growth and operational readiness.

Total domestic and international visitors exceeded 50 million, marking a 14 percent increase compared with 2024.

Tourism Minister Ahmed Al-Khateeb announced the figures during an annual inspection tour on Tuesday, stressing that the indicators reflect a major expansion in accommodation capacity and record growth in visitor numbers.

The tour included inspections of temporary lodging facilities designated for pilgrims, part of a proactive plan to increase capacity during peak seasons, alongside early preparations for the upcoming Hajj.

Vision 2030 targets surpassed

Official data has shown that Saudi Arabia has exceeded its Vision 2030 targets for the Umrah. The number of pilgrims arriving from abroad rose from 8.5 million in 2019 to more than 18 million in 2025, surpassing the original goal of 15 million by 2030.

A number of hotels surrounding the Grand Mosque in Makkah. (General Authority for Awqaf)

Service quality indicators improved as well, with pilgrim satisfaction reaching 94 percent, exceeding Vision 2030 benchmarks.

Workforce development kept pace with demand, as the number of licensed tour guides rose to more than 980, a 23 percent increase.

Masar Mall project

Al-Khateeb announced a joint financing agreement between the Tourism Development Fund and the Arab National Bank with Hamat Holding to support the Masar Mall project. The development carries a total cost of SAR 936 million (about $250 million).

The project is expected to become the largest shopping center in Makkah with the capacity to accommodate around 20 million visitors annually.

Its location near the Haramain High-Speed Railway station and a direct pedestrian link to the Grand Mosque are expected to strengthen the city’s commercial and tourism infrastructure.

Jeddah: Gateway to pilgrims

Meanwhile, Jeddah continues to consolidate its position as a complementary destination to Makkah and a primary gateway for pilgrims, while also expanding its role as a coastal tourism hub.

The city welcomed more than 13 million domestic and international visitors in 2025, a 10 percent increase from 2024. Tourism spending reached SAR 28 billion ($7.47 billion), up 6 percent year on year.

Jeddah’s hospitality sector also expanded, with more than 500 licensed facilities and over 33,000 licensed rooms.

The city is currently developing 46 tourism projects valued at SAR 21 billion ($5.6 billion) and expected to add more than 11,000 hotel rooms and further strengthen its tourism infrastructure and economic value.

Business

ECB President Lagarde Reportedly Plans to Quit Before Macron's Term Ends

FILE PHOTO: European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde addresses the press following the ECB's Governing Council meeting, at the ECB headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, February 5, 2026. REUTERS/Jana Rodenbusch/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde addresses the press following the ECB's Governing Council meeting, at the ECB headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, February 5, 2026. REUTERS/Jana Rodenbusch/File Photo
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ECB President Lagarde Reportedly Plans to Quit Before Macron's Term Ends

FILE PHOTO: European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde addresses the press following the ECB's Governing Council meeting, at the ECB headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, February 5, 2026. REUTERS/Jana Rodenbusch/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde addresses the press following the ECB's Governing Council meeting, at the ECB headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, February 5, 2026. REUTERS/Jana Rodenbusch/File Photo

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde plans to leave her job before next year's French presidential election to allow Emmanuel Macron to have an input into picking her successor, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday.

Lagarde's term is due to end in October 2027 but some fear that the far right may win the French presidential race ‌in the spring of ‌2027, complicating the selection for the ‌new ⁠leader of Europe's most ⁠important financial institution.

Citing a person familiar with the matter, the FT said Lagarde has not yet decided on the exact timing of her departure but was keen on Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz to be the key deciders in who succeeds her. Macron cannot run again for a third term.

"President Lagarde is ⁠totally focused on her mission and has not ‌taken any decision regarding the end ‌of her term," Reuters quoted an ECB spokesperson as saying.

The FT report comes only ‌a week after Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau ‌said he would step down in June this year, more than a year before the end of his term, allowing Macron to name his replacement before the presidential election that the far-right could win.

While it ‌will be up to all leaders from the 21-nation euro zone to pick Lagarde's successor, ⁠past practice ⁠suggests that any successful candidate must have both German and French support to clinch the role.

There are no formal candidates for the job yet but several names have been floating among ECB circles as potential ECB presidents. The most prominent among these are former Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot and Bank for International Settlements General Manager Pablo Hernandez de Cos.

Lagarde's non-renewable term at the ECB runs until October 31, 2027. Prior to heading the ECB, she was managing director of the International Monetary Fund from 2011 to 2019 and before that, the French finance minister.

Business

UK Inflation Falls to 3.0% in January

Pedestrians cross Westminster Bridge in front of Parliament during the early morning hours in London, Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2026.(AP Photo/Kin Cheung)
Pedestrians cross Westminster Bridge in front of Parliament during the early morning hours in London, Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2026.(AP Photo/Kin Cheung)
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UK Inflation Falls to 3.0% in January

Pedestrians cross Westminster Bridge in front of Parliament during the early morning hours in London, Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2026.(AP Photo/Kin Cheung)
Pedestrians cross Westminster Bridge in front of Parliament during the early morning hours in London, Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2026.(AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

Britain's annual ‌rate of consumer price inflation fell to 3.0% in January from 3.4% in December, official figures showed on Wednesday.

A Reuters poll of economists had shown a median forecast of 3.0% in January and the Bank of England projected earlier this month that the headline measure of inflation would slow to ‌2.9%.

British inflation ‌has run higher than in ‌the ⁠United States and in ⁠the euro zone where it stood at 2.4% and 1.7% respectively in January.

But the BoE expects the pace of price rises to slow sharply to almost its 2% target in ⁠April as last year's rises ‌in utility costs and ‌other government-controlled tariffs fall out of ‌the annual comparison.

Investors expect the central bank ‌to cut its benchmark interest rate to 3.5% at its next meeting in March after a tight vote to keep borrowing costs ‌on hold in February although some policymakers remain worried about underlying ⁠inflation ⁠pressure.

Financial markets on Tuesday also priced a second quarter-point interest rate cut by the BoE by the end of in 2026.

ONS data last week painted a downbeat picture of Britain's economy at the end of 2025 with output barely growing. Figures released on Tuesday showed the labor market was still losing jobs although there were some signs of a stabilization.