Türkiye’s Central Bank Hikes Interest Rates Again

FILE - A seller attends a client in a street market at Eminonu commercial area in Istanbul, Turkey, on, June 7, 2023. (AP Photo/Francisco Seco, File)
FILE - A seller attends a client in a street market at Eminonu commercial area in Istanbul, Turkey, on, June 7, 2023. (AP Photo/Francisco Seco, File)
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Türkiye’s Central Bank Hikes Interest Rates Again

FILE - A seller attends a client in a street market at Eminonu commercial area in Istanbul, Turkey, on, June 7, 2023. (AP Photo/Francisco Seco, File)
FILE - A seller attends a client in a street market at Eminonu commercial area in Istanbul, Turkey, on, June 7, 2023. (AP Photo/Francisco Seco, File)

Türkiye’s central bank raised its key interest rate by 5 percentage points Thursday, another large but expected hike that signals a continued push toward more traditional economic policies under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The bank hiked its policy rate to 30%, saying it has kept up the “monetary tightening process” to combat rampant inflation and control price instability. Its statement said inflation in July and August was “above expectations," hitting 58.94% last month.

It takes Türkiye into a more typical economic approach after critics blamed a series of rate cuts set by Erdogan for making a cost-of-living crisis worse. Turkish households were left struggling to afford rent and basic goods as inflation surged.

Erdogan has long argued that lowering interest rates helps fight inflation, a theory that runs contrary to traditional economic thinking. The Turkish central bank started cutting rates in late 2021 under pressure from Erdogan.

Central banks around the world, meanwhile, have been hiking rates to bring consumer price rises under control following the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine. Now, banks from the US Federal Reserve to Bank of England are hitting pause as they near the end of their aggressive increases.
Türkiye has work to do to catch up in its fight against inflation, The Associated Press reported.

After winning reelection in May, Erdogan appointed a new economic team, signaling a return to more conventional policies.

The team includes former Merrill Lynch banker Mehmet Simsek, who returned as finance minister, a post he held until 2018, and Hafize Gaye Erkan who took over as central bank governor.

Before their appointments, the central bank had cut its key interest rate from around 19% in 2021 to 8.5% earlier this year. Erdogan has fired three central bank governors who resisted pressure to cut rates before appointing Erkan’s predecessor in 2021.

Economists say Erdogan’s unorthodox policies exacerbated economic turmoil, leading to currency and cost-of-living crises that have brought hardship to households. Erdogan insists his economic model stimulates growth, exports and employment.

Following Erkan’s appointment, the bank has raised its key rate a series of time: by an aggressive 7.5 percentage points in August, 2.5 percentage points in July and 6.5 percentage points in June.



Ukraine Threatens to Halt Transit of Russian Oil to Europe

A view of storage tanks and pipelines at the Mero central oil tank farm, which moves crude through the Druzhba oil pipeline, near Nelahozeves, Czech Republic, August 10, 2022. REUTERS/David W Cerny/File Photo
A view of storage tanks and pipelines at the Mero central oil tank farm, which moves crude through the Druzhba oil pipeline, near Nelahozeves, Czech Republic, August 10, 2022. REUTERS/David W Cerny/File Photo
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Ukraine Threatens to Halt Transit of Russian Oil to Europe

A view of storage tanks and pipelines at the Mero central oil tank farm, which moves crude through the Druzhba oil pipeline, near Nelahozeves, Czech Republic, August 10, 2022. REUTERS/David W Cerny/File Photo
A view of storage tanks and pipelines at the Mero central oil tank farm, which moves crude through the Druzhba oil pipeline, near Nelahozeves, Czech Republic, August 10, 2022. REUTERS/David W Cerny/File Photo

A top aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday said Kyiv would halt the transit of Russian oil across its territory at the end of the year, when the current contract expires and is not renewed.

Mykhailo Podolyak said in an interview with the Novini.Live broadcaster that current transit contracts for Russian supplies that run through the end of the year will not be renewed.

“There is no doubt that it will all end on January 1, 2025,” he said.

Kiev says it is prepared to transport gas from the Central Asian countries or Azerbaijan to Europe, but not from Russia, as it is crucial for Ukraine to deprive Russia of its sources of income from the sale of raw materials after it attacked its neighbor well over two years ago.

The contract for the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine to Europe between the state-owned companies Gazprom and Naftogaz ends on December 31.

Despite the launch of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Ukrainians have fulfilled the contract terms - in part at the insistence of its European neighbors, especially Hungary.

But the leadership in Kiev has repeatedly made it clear that it wants the shipments to end.

Meanwhile, the Czech Republic energy security envoy Vaclav Bartuska said on Friday that any potential halt in oil supplies via the Druzhba pipeline through Ukraine from Russia from next year would not be a problem for the country.

Responding to a Reuters question – on comments by Ukrainian presidential aide Mykhailo Podolyak that flows of Russian oil may stop from January – Bartuska said Ukraine had also in the past warned of a potential halt.

“This is not the first time, this time maybe they mean it seriously – we shall see,” Bartuska said in a text message. “For the Czech Republic, it is not a problem.”

To end partial dependency on the Druzhba pipeline, Czech state-owned pipeline operator MERO has been investing in raising the capacity of the TAL pipeline from Italy to Germany, which connects to the IKL pipeline supplying the Czech Republic.

From next year, the increased capacity would be sufficient for the total needs of the country’s two refineries, owned by Poland’s Orlen, of up to 8 million tons of crude per year.

MERO has said it planned to achieve the country’s independence from Russian oil from the start of 2025, although the TAL upgrade would be finished by June 2025.

On Friday, oil prices stabilized, heading for a weekly increase, as disruptions in Libyan production and Iraq’s plans to curb output raised concerns about supply.

Meanwhile, data showing that the US economy grew faster than initially estimated eased recession fears.

However, signs of weakening demand, particularly in China, capped gains.

Brent crude futures for October delivery, which expire on Friday, fell by 7 cents, or 0.09%, to $79.87 per barrel. The more actively traded November contract rose 5 cents, or 0.06%, to $78.87.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures added 6 cents, or 0.08%, to $75.97 per barrel.

The day before, both benchmarks had risen by more than $1, and so far this week, they have gained 1.1% and 1.6%, respectively.

Additionally, a drop in Libyan exports and the prospect of lower Iraqi crude production in September are expected to help keep the oil market undersupplied.

Over half of Libya’s oil production, around 700,000 barrels per day (bpd), was halted on Thursday, and exports were suspended at several ports due to a standoff between rival political factions.

Elsewhere, Iraq plans to reduce oil output in September as part of a plan to compensate for producing over the quota agreed with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a source with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Thursday.

Iraq, which produced 4.25 million bpd in July, will cut output to between 3.85 million and 3.9 million bpd next month, the source said.