Oil Prices Rise as Supply Concerns Outweigh Demand Fears

A worker at an oilfield in Africa. (Getty)
A worker at an oilfield in Africa. (Getty)
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Oil Prices Rise as Supply Concerns Outweigh Demand Fears

A worker at an oilfield in Africa. (Getty)
A worker at an oilfield in Africa. (Getty)

Oil prices rose on Friday as concerns that a Russian ban on fuel exports could tighten global supply outweighed fears that further US interest rate hikes could dent demand, but they were still headed for their first weekly loss in four weeks.
Brent futures climbed 50 cents, or 0.5%, to $93.80 a barrel by 0350 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) futures gained 63 cents, or 0.7%, to $90.26 a barrel, said Reuters.
Both benchmarks were on track for a small weekly drop after gaining more than 10% in the previous three weeks amid concerns about tight global supply as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) maintain production cuts.
"Trading remained choppy amid a tug-of-war between supply fears that were reinforced by a Russian ban on fuel exports and worries over slower demand due to tighter monetary policies in the United States and Europe," said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities Co Ltd.
"Going forward, investors will focus on whether the OPEC+ production cuts are being implemented as promised and whether the rise in interest rates will reduce demand," he said, predicting WTI to trade in a range of around $90-$95.
Russia temporarily banned exports of gasoline and diesel to all countries outside a circle of four ex-Soviet states with immediate effect to stabilize the domestic fuel market, the government said on Thursday.
The shortfall, which will force Russia's fuel buyers to shop elsewhere, caused heating oil futures to rise by nearly 5% on Thursday.
"Crude oil bounced off a session low after Russia banned diesel exports, which included gasoline. The action reversed a downside movement in crude markets following the hawkish Fed decision on Thursday," said Tina Teng, an analyst at CMC Markets, in a note.
"However, mounting fears of a recession in the Eurozone could continue pressuring oil prices."
The US Federal Reserve on Wednesday maintained interest rates, but stiffened its hawkish stance, projecting a quarter-percentage-point increase to 5.50-5.75% by year-end.
That buoyed fears that higher rates could dampen economic growth and fuel demand while boosting the US dollar to its highest since early March, making oil and other commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
The Bank of England mirrored the Fed and held interest rates on Thursday after a long run of hikes, but said it was not taking a recent fall in inflation for granted.
A European Central Bank (ECB) governing council member said the central bank will most likely keep interest rates stable at its next policy meeting.



Trump Uncertainties Push Safe-haven Gold to Near all-time Highs

FILE PHOTO: An employee places ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold in a workroom at the Novosibirsk precious metals refining and manufacturing plant in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk, Russia, September 15, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An employee places ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold in a workroom at the Novosibirsk precious metals refining and manufacturing plant in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk, Russia, September 15, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
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Trump Uncertainties Push Safe-haven Gold to Near all-time Highs

FILE PHOTO: An employee places ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold in a workroom at the Novosibirsk precious metals refining and manufacturing plant in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk, Russia, September 15, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An employee places ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold in a workroom at the Novosibirsk precious metals refining and manufacturing plant in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk, Russia, September 15, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo

Gold prices soared to near three-month highs on Wednesday, trading below its record peak, fuelled by a soft dollar and lack of clarity around US President Donald Trump's policy plans, which investors fear could trigger trade wars and elevate market volatility.

Spot gold added 0.3% to $2,753.79 per ounce as of 9:45 a.m. ET (1445 GMT). Prices were at their highest since Oct. 31 when they hit their all-time-high of $2,790.15.

US gold futures gained 0.2% to $2,764.80.

The dollar index dipped to a more-than-three-week low, making greenback-priced bullion less expensive for holders of other currencies, Reuters reported.

"There are uncertainties with proposed tariffs and other things, and gold typically does well when there's a large or even a moderate amount of uncertainty in the market, it's a natural place where people gravitate to," said Ryan McIntyre, Senior Portfolio Manager at Sprott Asset Management.

Trump said his administration was discussing imposing a 10% tariff on goods imported from China on Feb. 1, the same day that he previously said Mexico and Canada could face levies of around 25%.

Gold is often viewed as a haven during times of economic and geopolitical turmoil, but Trump's proposed policies are broadly regarded as inflationary, potentially compelling the US Federal Reserve to sustain elevated interest rates for an extended period to rein in rising price pressures.

Trump has not provided many details about his proposed tariffs, making investors question the aggressiveness of the move, and the depth of its potential impacts.

"(Trump) has been perhaps just a shade less hawkish on tariffs as feared which helps - less/lower tariffs is taken to indicate lower inflation hence potential for more rate cuts," said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader.

Spot silver fell 0.6% to $30.68, but hovered near a one-month high hit on Jan. 16.

Platinum rose 0.3% to $946.50 and palladium gained 1.9% to $975.27.