Saudi Arabia Calls for ‘Proactive Measures’ in Oil Market

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman addresses the opening session of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Climate Week in Riyadh, on October 8, 2023. (Photo by Fayez Nureldine / AFP)
Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman addresses the opening session of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Climate Week in Riyadh, on October 8, 2023. (Photo by Fayez Nureldine / AFP)
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Saudi Arabia Calls for ‘Proactive Measures’ in Oil Market

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman addresses the opening session of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Climate Week in Riyadh, on October 8, 2023. (Photo by Fayez Nureldine / AFP)
Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman addresses the opening session of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Climate Week in Riyadh, on October 8, 2023. (Photo by Fayez Nureldine / AFP)

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman has said it was necessary to be "proactive" on the oil market and attempt to bring stability to it, while adding that oil producers do not target prices.

In a Russian TV interview aired Thursday, Prince Abdulaziz said the market was unpredictable and "cannot be left on its own."

"We are not magicians. It is hard to forecast what will happen on the market even in half a year," he told Rossiya-24 state TV.

The minister said the need to act on the oil market depended on its volatility, adding that attempts to target prices had failed in the 1980s.

Saudi Arabia and Russia have agreed to continue with voluntary oil supply cuts of 1.3 million barrels per day, or more than 1 percent of global demand, to the end of the year.

Abdulaziz said the terms of the deal would be evaluated every month.

In the same interview, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Russia's deal with OPEC+ had had a stabilizing effect.

He noted that the balance between supply and demand is fragile and could be affected by the slowdown in global economic growth.

Abdulaziz stated that the two countries seek to strengthen trade relations, while Novak explained that Russia and Saudi Arabia discussed the mutual lifting of visa restrictions.

Meanwhile, Novak said on Thursday that Russia's pledges to the OPEC+ group to cut its oil exports included a reduction in oil products, according to news agencies.

Novak's statement stoked confusion over Russia's plans to reduce oil supplies.

In his original announcement of the plans to cut oil exports by 300,000 barrels per day (bpd), Novak had not mentioned oil products but had spoken only about oil.

"When we talk about the oil market and production, oil is produced and then supplied for processing. Therefore, of course, everything is considered together. The final product, of course, takes into account the volumes that are produced," Novak said in response to a question on whether oil products were included in the export reductions, according to Interfax news agency.

It would be easier for Moscow to cut overall exports of crude oil and fuel after Russia announced on Sept. 21 a ban on fuel exports to tackle domestic shortages and high prices. It lifted the ban on most oil products last week.

- OPEC maintains demand expectations

On Thursday, OPEC stuck to its forecast for relatively substantial growth in global oil demand in 2023 and 2024, citing signs of a resilient world economy this year and expected further demand gains in China.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in a monthly report that world oil demand will rise by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, compared with growth of 2.44 million bpd in 2023.

Both forecasts were unchanged from last month.

A lifting of pandemic lockdowns in China has helped oil demand rise in 2023.

OPEC consistently forecasts stronger demand growth for next year than other forecasters, such as the International Energy Agency (IEA).

"In 2024, solid global economic growth, amid continued improvements in China, is expected to boost oil consumption further," OPEC said in the report.

The report also said that demand in the rest of this year and next could take a hit in some parts of the world and trimmed its forecasts for total world demand in the current quarter and the first three months of 2024.

OPEC said: "Looking ahead and despite the usual seasonal rise in heating oil demand, ongoing uncertainty and economic developments in OECD Europe and other areas are expected to impact oil demand in the remainder of 2023 and 2024."

The OPEC report also said OPEC oil production rose in September despite pledged OPEC+ supply cuts, driven by increases in Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait.

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency said in its latest monthly oil market report that while the Israel-Hamas war had not yet directly impacted physical supply, oil markets would "remain on tenterhooks" as the crisis unfolds.

"The Middle East conflict is fraught with uncertainty, and events are fast developing," the IEA said in its report.

"Against a backdrop of tightly balanced oil markets anticipated by the IEA for some time, the international community will remain laser-focused on risks to the region's oil flows," the energy agency added.

Noting a "sharp escalation in geopolitical risk," the IEA said it would continue closely monitoring oil markets and "stands ready to act if necessary to ensure markets remain adequately supplied."



Israel’s ‘Economic War’ Chokes Occupied West Bank

Palestinians queue to withdraw money from an ATM in the main market in Ramallah city in the Israel-occupied West Bank on June 9, 2024.
Palestinians queue to withdraw money from an ATM in the main market in Ramallah city in the Israel-occupied West Bank on June 9, 2024.
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Israel’s ‘Economic War’ Chokes Occupied West Bank

Palestinians queue to withdraw money from an ATM in the main market in Ramallah city in the Israel-occupied West Bank on June 9, 2024.
Palestinians queue to withdraw money from an ATM in the main market in Ramallah city in the Israel-occupied West Bank on June 9, 2024.

Palestinian teenagers bounced on trampolines and jumped through hoops inside a towering tent on the outskirts of Ramallah, the financial hub of the occupied West Bank.

But the circus students weren't the only ones bending over backwards in the pavilion: the school's director faced financial hurdles to buy the tent from Europe and trampolines from Asia.

"We are suffering with international payments," said Mohamad Rabah, head of the Palestinian Circus School, describing a bureaucratic process that could delay equipment delivery by up to a month.

Banking in the Palestinian territories is challenging, with the Palestinian Authority (PA) under scrutiny for potential terror financing, hindering transactions.

Israel has occupied the West Bank since 1967, with strong economic ties allowing two Israeli lenders to serve as correspondent banks in the Palestinian territory.

But this may change if Israel's far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich carries out threats to sever a vital banking route next month.

Since Hamas's October 7 attack triggered the Gaza war, Israel has imposed economic curbs on the PA, withholding tax revenues it collects on its behalf.

Smotrich said this week he had redirected $35 million in PA tax revenues to families of "terrorism" victims, a move condemned by the United States.

After three European countries recognized Palestinian statehood in May, Smotrich told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu he would not extend indemnity to banks that transfer the funds from the end of June.

Israel's Bank Hapoalim and Israel Discount Bank need protection, expiring on July 1, to avoid sanctions for dealing with Palestinian lenders.

Israel's central bank and finance ministry declined to comment when contacted by AFP.

A Palestinian fruit vendor arranges his street cart in the main market in Ramallah city in the Israel-occupied West Bank on June 9, 2024. (AFP)

- 'Humanitarian crisis' -

The banking channel used to pay for West Bank imports -- including essential goods like water, fuel and food -- handles $8 billion yearly.

Palestinian businesses receive nearly $1.7 billion annually for exports, according to the Palestine Monetary Authority.

"For us, because our economy is dependent on the Israeli economy, because Israel is controlling the border, the impact will be high," said PMA governor Feras Milhem.

The Palestinian economy is largely governed by the 1994 Paris Protocol, which granted sole control over the territories' borders to Israel, including the right to collect import duties and value-added tax for the PA.

Palestinian livelihoods have also been hurt by bans on laborers crossing into Israel and by a sharp downturn in tourism in the territory, including a quiet Christmas season in Bethlehem.

The United States has urged Israel to improve conditions, warning that severing the banking route would have a dire impact on the West Bank economy.

"I believe it would create a humanitarian crisis in due course if Palestinian banks are cut off from Israeli correspondence," US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said last month.

Western governments fear Israel's economic policies could destabilize the West Bank.

"The banking system may collapse and therefore the PA may collapse as well," a European diplomatic source in Jerusalem told AFP on condition of anonymity.

"The PA is in a financial crisis and it could collapse before August."

A Palestinian vendor unloads his stock in front of a shop in the main market in Ramallah city in the Israel-occupied West Bank on June 9, 2024. (AFP)

- Digital currency -

Palestinian businessmen say their bottom lines have been hit since October 7.

Imad Rabah, who owns a plastics company, said his net income had fallen 50 percent in one year.

Musa Shamieh, who owns a womenswear company said the Israeli policies were designed to push Palestinians to leave the West Bank.

"They want us to leave our land and they know it will be hard for us to stay if we can't do business," Shamieh said.

Israel's harsh economic policies could eventually drive Palestinian policymakers to pursue sweeping changes to the monetary system.

"We need to work on a plan B when it comes to the trade relations," said Milhem, governor of the PMA, which uses an image of the former Palestinian pound as its logo.

Yousef Daoud, professor at the West Bank's Birzeit University, said the territory could scrap the shekel as its de facto currency in favor of a digital alternative.

"We can make our e-currency, just collect all the shekels, issue an equivalent amount of Palestinian pounds, one-to-one fixed exchange rate, and have the Palestinians deal with e-currency," he said.

"Somehow, eventually, we'll get rid of the shekel."