Stark UN Report on Devastation to Palestinian Economy Shows GDP Fell 4% after a Month of War

Palestinians walk through a ravaged street following Israeli airstrikes on Gaza City, on October 10, 2023. (AFP)
Palestinians walk through a ravaged street following Israeli airstrikes on Gaza City, on October 10, 2023. (AFP)
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Stark UN Report on Devastation to Palestinian Economy Shows GDP Fell 4% after a Month of War

Palestinians walk through a ravaged street following Israeli airstrikes on Gaza City, on October 10, 2023. (AFP)
Palestinians walk through a ravaged street following Israeli airstrikes on Gaza City, on October 10, 2023. (AFP)

A UN report paints a stark picture of the devastation of the collapse of the Palestinian economy after a month of war and Israel’s near-total siege of Gaza.

The gross domestic product shrank 4% in the West Bank and Gaza in the war’s first month, sending over 400,000 people into poverty — an economic impact unseen in the conflicts Syria and Ukraine, or any previous Israel-Hamas war, the UN said.

Hamas fighters, who rule Gaza, launched a surprise attack on Israel on Oct. 7 killing over 1,400 people, mainly civilians, and kidnapping about 240 others.

More than two-thirds of Gaza’s population of 2.3 million have fled their homes since Israel launched weeks of intense airstrikes followed by an ongoing ground operation, vowing to obliterate Hamas. The Hamas-run Health Ministry in Gaza said Thursday that 10,818 Palestinians, including more than 4,400 children, have been killed so far.

The rapid assessment of economic consequences of the Gaza war released Thursday by the UN Development Program and the UN Economic and Social Commission for West Asia was the first UN report showing the devastating impact of the conflict especially on the Palestinians, The Associated Press reported.

If the war continues for a second month, the UN projects that the Palestinian GDP, which was $20.4 billion before the war began, will drop by 8.4% — a loss of $1.7 billion. And if the conflict lasts a third month, Palestinian GDP will drop by 12%, with losses of $2.5 billion and more than 660,000 people pushed into poverty, it projects.

UN Development Program Assistant Secretary-General Abdallah Al Dardari told a news conference that a 12% GDP loss at the end of the year would be “massive and unprecedented.” By comparison, he said, the Syrian economy used to lose 1% of its GDP per month at the height of its conflict, and it took Ukraine a year and a half of fighting to lose 30% of its GDP, an average of about 1.6% a month.

At the beginning of 2023, the Palestinian territories – the West Bank and Gaza – were considered a lower middle-income economy with a poverty level of $6 per day per person, Economic Commission Executive Secretary Rola Dashti said.

In January, Gaza was already grappling with high unemployment of about 46%, three-and-a-half times higher than the West Bank’s 13%, the report said.

But just weeks of war has destroyed hundreds of thousands of jobs.

“As the war hits the one-month mark, 61% of employment in Gaza, equivalent to 182,000 jobs, is estimated to have been lost,” it said. “Around 24% of employment in the West Bank has also been lost, equivalent to 208,000 jobs.”

Al Dardari pointed to massive disruption to the economy in the West Bank, which is responsible for 82% of Palestinian GDP, explaining that this is supposed to be the season for olive and citrus farmers to collect their products but they can’t because of the war. And “the tourism season is practically gone – and agriculture and tourism represent 40% of the GDP in the West Bank," he said.

In addition, Al Dardari said, there are major disruptions to trade, to the transfer of money from Israel to the Palestinian Authority, which controls the West Bank, and no investment.

The Economic Commission’s Dashti said "the level of destruction is unimaginable and unprecedented” in Gaza.

“As of November 3, it is estimated that 35,000 housing units have been totally demolished and about 220,000 units are partially damaged,” she said. The report said at least 45% of Gaza’s housing units have been destroyed or damaged.

If this persists, the majority of Gazans will have no homes and Al Dardari said even if fighting ended now there will be massive long-term displacement, “with all its humanitarian economic development and security consequences.”

Al Dardari said it breaks his heart that the Palestinian territories had become lower middle income economies, “because all of that growth and development is going to regress between 11, 16, or even 19 years if the fighting continues. ... We will go back to 2002.”



Trump Says He Will Introduce 25% Tariffs on Autos, Pharmaceuticals and Chips 

New trucks crowd a parking lot at the GM assembly plant in Oshawa, Ontario, Canada September 24, 2019. (Reuters)
New trucks crowd a parking lot at the GM assembly plant in Oshawa, Ontario, Canada September 24, 2019. (Reuters)
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Trump Says He Will Introduce 25% Tariffs on Autos, Pharmaceuticals and Chips 

New trucks crowd a parking lot at the GM assembly plant in Oshawa, Ontario, Canada September 24, 2019. (Reuters)
New trucks crowd a parking lot at the GM assembly plant in Oshawa, Ontario, Canada September 24, 2019. (Reuters)

US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he intends to impose auto tariffs "in the neighborhood of 25%" and similar duties on semiconductors and pharmaceutical imports, the latest in a series of measures threatening to upend international trade.

On Friday, Trump said levies on automobiles would come as soon as April 2, the day after members of his cabinet are due to deliver reports to him outlining options for a range of import duties as he seeks to reshape global trade.

Trump has long railed against what he calls the unfair treatment of US automotive exports in foreign markets.

The European Union, for instance, collects a 10% duty on vehicle imports, four times the US passenger car tariff rate of 2.5%. The US, though, collects a 25% tariff on pickup trucks from countries other than Mexico and Canada, a tax that makes the vehicles highly profitable for Detroit automakers.

EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic will meet with US counterparts - Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Trump's nominee to be US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett - in Washington on Wednesday to discuss the various tariffs threatened by Trump.

Asked whether the EU could avoid reciprocal tariffs he proposed last week, Trump repeated his claim that the EU had already signaled it would lower its tariffs on US cars to the US rate, although EU lawmakers have denied doing so.

He said he would press EU officials to increase US imports of cars and other products.

PHARMA, CHIPS DUTIES

Trump told reporters at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida on Tuesday that sectoral tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductor chips would also start at "25% or higher", rising substantially over the course of a year.

He did not provide a date for announcing those duties and said he wanted to provide some time for drug and chip makers to set up US factories so that they can avoid tariffs.

Trump said he expected some of the biggest companies in the world to announce new investments in the United States in the next couple of weeks. He provided no further details.

Since his inauguration four weeks ago, Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on all imports from China, on top of existing levies, over China's failure to halt fentanyl trafficking. He also announced, and then delayed for a month, 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and non-energy imports from Canada.

He has also set a March 12 start date for 25% tariffs on all imported steel and aluminum, eliminating exemptions for Canada, Mexico, the European Union and other trading partners. Trump also announced that these tariffs would apply to hundreds of imported downstream products made of steel and aluminum, from electrical conduit tubing to bulldozer blades.

Last week, he directed his economic team to devise plans to impose reciprocal tariffs that match the tariff rates of every country product-by-product.

SHELVED CAR TARIFFS

An auto import tariff of 25% would be a game-changer for a global auto industry that is already reeling from uncertainty caused by Trump's tariff drama.

A similar drama played out in 2018 and 2019 during Trump's first term, when the Commerce Department conducted a national security investigation into auto imports and found that they weakened the domestic industrial base. Trump had threatened car tariffs of 25% at that time, but ultimately took no action, allowing the tariff authority from that probe to expire.

But some of the research that went into the 2018 investigation may be reused or updated as part of a new automotive tariff effort.