Turkish-Arab Economic Forum Calls for Raising Level of Regional Trade Integration

Turkish Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Semsek participates in the forum, along with the Egyptian Minister of Finance, the Kuwaiti Minister of Oil and the Minister of State and President of Qatari Free Zones. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Turkish Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Semsek participates in the forum, along with the Egyptian Minister of Finance, the Kuwaiti Minister of Oil and the Minister of State and President of Qatari Free Zones. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Turkish-Arab Economic Forum Calls for Raising Level of Regional Trade Integration

Turkish Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Semsek participates in the forum, along with the Egyptian Minister of Finance, the Kuwaiti Minister of Oil and the Minister of State and President of Qatari Free Zones. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Turkish Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Semsek participates in the forum, along with the Egyptian Minister of Finance, the Kuwaiti Minister of Oil and the Minister of State and President of Qatari Free Zones. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

The Turkish-Arab Economic Forum called for speeding up efforts to raise the level of trade integration between the countries of the region, as the volume of the global economy and trade is witnessing a contraction with the increase in geopolitical risks and conflicts.

Turkish Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Semsek said that the competition between the United States and China, as a rising power, has caused fragmentation in trade, and increased protectionism and geopolitical tensions.

His remarks came during a forum in Istanbul under the slogan, “A New Phase in Cooperation,” held by the Investment Office of the Turkish Presidency, in cooperation with the Union of Turkish Chambers and Stock Exchanges.

“At a time like this, it was generally believed that regional trade integration was happening faster, but when we look at our region, trade integration within it is the lowest in the world,” the minister stated.

He added that the efforts should be exerted to solve political and geopolitical problems, which would in turn help increase regional trade integration.

Among the attendees were Egyptian Minister of Finance Mohamed Maait, Kuwaiti Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Oil, Minister of State for Economic Affairs and Investment, Saad Al-Barrak, and Qatari Minister of State, Head of the Free Zones Administration, Ahmed Al-Sayed.

Maait stressed that the volume of trade between the countries of the region was very low, compared to Europe.

“We must think about the reasons, and we also need to look at the tools we have and compare them to those used in other regions,” he underlined.

He added that the situation would improve a lot if the private sector was given the task of leadership and integration.

In turn, Al-Barrak said that governments have the duty to create the appropriate environment and support the projects of the private sector, pointing out that the real role of the state was to regulate and ensure the progress of companies.

The Qatari minister, for his part, pointed to an enormous potential in the region, which he said must enable countries to carry out international trade with great ease.

In this context, he underlined the need to identify obstacles that prevent achieving a greater integration rate despite the existing potential.

In a speech at the beginning of the forum, the head of the Turkish Presidency’s Investment Office, Burak Daglioglu, said his country has been moving ahead on the right path in cooperation with Arab countries since 2003.

He stated that the volume of trade between Türkiye and the Arab countries 20 years ago was $5 billion, representing 10 percent of total Turkish exports, and rose in 2023 to more than $45 billion, which constitutes 20 percent of the country’s exports.

In turn, the secretary-general of the Union of Arab Chambers, Khaled Hanafy, stressed that the economic cooperation between Ankara and Arab capitals were witnessing continuous growth. He noted that Arab investments in Türkiye were constantly increasing, especially in the field of real estate.



Venezuela Depreciation Risks Reversing Years of Inflation Gains

People walk through a market in the low-income Petare neighborhood, in Caracas, Venezuela November 16, 2024. (Reuters)
People walk through a market in the low-income Petare neighborhood, in Caracas, Venezuela November 16, 2024. (Reuters)
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Venezuela Depreciation Risks Reversing Years of Inflation Gains

People walk through a market in the low-income Petare neighborhood, in Caracas, Venezuela November 16, 2024. (Reuters)
People walk through a market in the low-income Petare neighborhood, in Caracas, Venezuela November 16, 2024. (Reuters)

Currency depreciation is set to reverse years of declining inflation in economically beleaguered Venezuela, public and private sector sources say, as foreign currency sales fall short of demand and the socialist government keeps tight-lipped about its strategy.

After years of hyperinflation and amid broad US sanctions, in 2022 the administration of President Nicolas Maduro began using orthodox policies including credit restrictions, lower public spending, a fixed dollar-bolivar rate and central bank sales of billions of dollars in foreign currency to tamp down consumer prices.

Maduro, who will begin his third term in January after a disputed election that the opposition and international observers say he lost, has said his government defeated inflation of more than 100,000% and prices in 2024 are similar to those in 2014.

But the administration's policy has now changed.

After more than nine months of the exchange rate being held at 36.5 bolivars to the dollar, the government in mid-October allowed the currency to float, beginning a depreciation that has seen the bolivar slide to about 45 versus the dollar, according to central bank figures.

Analysts say the over-valued currency made imports cheaper than locally-produced goods, impacting Venezuela's private sector and helping push prices up by 12% in nine months.

The untethering of the exchange rate will also put upward pressure on prices in the final quarter of 2024, financial and business sources said, with analysts predicting in a LatinFocus survey the rate will end the year at 50 bolivars to the dollar.

Year-on-year inflation was 25% through September. Official figures for October have not yet been released.

"For nine months the depreciation of the currency was zero while inflation was rising, which exposed problems in the exchange scheme," said economics professor and consultant Daniel Cadenas, who added the market depends on oil income. "For the system to function, there needs to be a growing source of exchange and that's not possible."

The government had predicted internally that inflation would close the year at 30%, two sources with knowledge of the projection said, but depreciation could increase the figure and local analysts have estimated inflation between 35% and 40%.

"There has been a necessary adjustment in the exchange rate that will have an impact on inflation," said Asdrubal Oliveros, head of local think tank Ecoanalitica. "The government has understood it needs to devaluate."

REDUCED CENTRAL BANK SALES

Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, who until recently also served as finance minister, told an event with business people last month that there must be "reflection" about the use of foreign exchange.

"We should all be concerned with how foreign exchange is used in imports. It is a subject the Finance Ministry is reviewing," she said. "We need to take care of foreign exchange because this is a blockaded country and there cannot be cheap exchange for hair dye."

Rodriguez's comments are the only ones made on the subject by the government since devaluation began. Neither the central bank nor the communications or finance ministries responded to requests for comment.

Private sector demand for cheap foreign exchange increased during the nine months the rate was held, even as the quantity of dollars being injected into the market by the central bank was reduced, sources said.

In July the bank was offering some $800 million, but by October that figure had fallen to $400 million, according to calculations by local consultancy Sintesis Financiera.

The central bank did not respond to a question about the reduction.

"The strategy in exchange policy is not going ahead," a government source said, without giving further details.

Food and medicine companies in Venezuela are allowed to pay for some of their goods with foreign currency, while other companies are given central bank promissory notes indexed to a specific exchange rate.

Two private sector sources said many businesses are eating through their inventories in the face of import difficulties.