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Capital Economics Expects Saudi Inflation to Decline to 1% Mid 2024

The Saudi Finance Ministry expected inflation to reach 2.6% by the end of 2023 (SPA)
The Saudi Finance Ministry expected inflation to reach 2.6% by the end of 2023 (SPA)
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Capital Economics Expects Saudi Inflation to Decline to 1% Mid 2024

The Saudi Finance Ministry expected inflation to reach 2.6% by the end of 2023 (SPA)
The Saudi Finance Ministry expected inflation to reach 2.6% by the end of 2023 (SPA)

The Capital Economics research institution expected inflation to decline in Saudi Arabia to reach 1% on an annual basis by mid-2024.
The institution said in a report that this trend will likely suffer a slight temporary bump in the second half of the year, but inflation will slow again entering into 2025.
The London-based research institution expected annual inflation in the Kingdom to decline to 1.6% in December.
On Monday, the Saudi General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT) is scheduled to release the December consumer price index (CPI).
The November figures recorded 1.6% on an annual basis and 1.7% on a monthly basis.
The main driver of CPI inflation in November was an increase in housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuel prices by 7.8% and food and beverage prices by 1.4%.
The Saudi Ministry of Finance in the 2024 budget statement expected inflation to record 2.6% at the end of 2023 and to decline to 2.2% in 2024.
According to Capital Economics, food and price inflation for other groups declined last December.
Capital Economics said that the increase in local fuel prices in the Kingdom only came into effect this month and that the inflation rate in transportation prices have likely slowed last month.
At the same time, previous drops in global food prices have pushed down food price inflation in Saudi Arabia.
- Tension in the Middle East
Capital Economics said tensions in the Middle East are escalating and will support oil prices over the next few weeks or months.
Oil prices rose last week due to the US and UK strikes against the Houthis in response to their attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea.
Furthermore, Capital Economics said that it expects the price of Brent crude to reach an average of $72 per barrel in 2025, compared to the US Energy Information Administration’s expectation that it will reach $78 per barrel.
The institution’s data expected the average price of Brent crude in the first two quarters of this year to reach $77 per barrel. However, it is predicted to drop to $76 and $75 per barrel in the second and third quarters, respectively.
It expects its figures to match the data issued by the US Energy Information Administration regarding the moderate pace of growth in US oil production this year, at an average of 13.2 million barrels per day.
The US Energy Information Administration published a report on the short-term energy outlook, which included forecasts for 2025 for the first time.

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World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
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World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)

World food prices edged lower in October as weaker import demand contributed to monthly declines in cereal, dairy and meat prices, but were still nearly 6% higher than a year earlier, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said on Friday.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in international prices for a basket of food commodities, ‌averaged 133.9 points ‌in October, down from a revised ‌135.6 ⁠in September.

The index ⁠was 5.9% higher than a year earlier, but remained 16.4% below its March 2022 peak.

FAO's cereal price index fell 4.5% from September and was 12.6% lower than a year ago, as wheat and maize quotations declined. Wheat prices eased on weak import demand ⁠and improved production prospects, especially in Argentina.

"Expectations of ‌easing constraints on Black ‌Sea export flows added to the downward pressure on prices, ‌although continued disruptions to Black Sea logistics limited the decline," ‌FAO said in a statement.

Maize prices also eased after reaching a three-year high in September, pressured by the US harvest, expectations of ample supplies in South America and renewed ‌prospects of easing tensions in the Black Sea region.

Vegetable oil prices edged up 0.3%, ⁠as ⁠higher soybean and sunflower oil prices more than offset a fall in rapeseed oil prices.

Sugar prices rose 6.6%, their fourth straight monthly increase, to the highest level since December 2024, after rainfall disrupted harvesting in Brazil. They were now 28.8% above a year ago.

The dairy index fell 1.1%, as lower butter and cheese prices linked to ample supplies and subdued demand outweighed gains in milk powder.

The meat index declined 1.2%, while still slightly above its year-earlier level, as ovine and bovine meat prices fell.

Business

Copper Falls, Set for Worst Week Since March on AI Rout

Copper at the Aurubis copper smelting and refining plant in Hamburg, Germany. (Reuters)
Copper at the Aurubis copper smelting and refining plant in Hamburg, Germany. (Reuters)
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Copper Falls, Set for Worst Week Since March on AI Rout

Copper at the Aurubis copper smelting and refining plant in Hamburg, Germany. (Reuters)
Copper at the Aurubis copper smelting and refining plant in Hamburg, Germany. (Reuters)

Copper dropped on Friday and was set for its biggest weekly drop in London since March, as a rout in technology stocks battered markets.

Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was down 1.3% at $13,663 a metric ton by 0700 GMT. That placed it on track to fall 3.44% in the week, Reuters said.

The most-traded copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 1.08% to 106,830 yuan ($16,018.17) a ton.

The weakness reflects worries over AI investment, ‌with copper increasingly ‌influenced by "sentiment towards data center expansion," said ‌Craig ⁠Lang, principal analyst ⁠at CRU.

Technology shares were battered after Democratic wins in the US midterms fueled concerns that new regulatory oversight could cap the AI buildout.

On the other hand, supply constraints cushioned copper's decline.

"I would be cautious about calling this a sustained correction, given ongoing mine supply challenges and exceptionally tight ⁠metal availability outside the US," Lang said.

Copper stocks ‌in SHFE-monitored warehouses <CU-STX-SGH> fell by ‌over 24% this week to just 33,848 tons — the lowest ‌in almost three years. The closely watched Yangshan copper ‌premium <SMM-CUYP-CN>, a gauge of appetite for imports into key consumer China, increased to $210 a ton on Thursday, matching its record high.

Smelters in the country are facing a double squeeze of negative treatment ‌charges and lower sulfuric acid prices.

Meanwhile, warehouse inventories outside the US have been drawn ⁠down as ⁠material was pulled into the country ahead of a potential tariff on imports of refined copper.

"These physical constraints should provide some support against weaker investor sentiment," Lang said.

Among LME metals, aluminium lost 0.54%, zinc lost 1.42%, lead lost 0.45%, nickel dipped 0.23% and tin gained 0.83%.

On the SHFE, aluminium nudged down only 0.04%, zinc lost 1.35%, lead was little changed, down only 0.03%, nickel rose 2.14% and tin dropped 3.45%.

SHFE inventories were down across the board this week, led by sharp drops in aluminium <AL-STX-SGH> and lead <PB-STX-SGH>.

Business

Emerging Economies Set to Match Advanced Nations’ Renewable Capacity Additions, IEA Says

Workers walk at Kalyon Karapinar solar power plant in Karapinar, Konya province, Türkiye, Oct. 14, 2026. (AP)
Workers walk at Kalyon Karapinar solar power plant in Karapinar, Konya province, Türkiye, Oct. 14, 2026. (AP)
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Emerging Economies Set to Match Advanced Nations’ Renewable Capacity Additions, IEA Says

Workers walk at Kalyon Karapinar solar power plant in Karapinar, Konya province, Türkiye, Oct. 14, 2026. (AP)
Workers walk at Kalyon Karapinar solar power plant in Karapinar, Konya province, Türkiye, Oct. 14, 2026. (AP)

Emerging ‌and developing economies outside China are expected to add as much new renewable energy capacity as advanced economies for the first time over the next five years, driven by the current energy crisis, the International Energy Agency said on Friday.

Gas and oil prices have soared this year as the US-Iran war disrupts traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil and gas trade.

Global renewable energy ‌capacity is forecast ‌to increase by almost 4,800 gigawatts ‌between ⁠2026 and 2031, ⁠the IEA said in its annual outlook.

Emerging and developing economies are expected to add about 1,100 GW, roughly the same as advanced economies, with China adding around 2,550 GW, the agency said.

Capacity growth in Southeast Asia, Africa and the Middle East is ⁠expected to triple over the period, ‌led mainly by solar installations, ‌the IEA said.

China will remain the biggest contributor to ‌global renewable energy growth, although its share is ‌forecast to fall to 53% by 2031 from 60% in 2025.

India is emerging as the world's second-fastest deployer of renewables and is expected to more than double its contribution ‌to global growth by 2031 to nearly 8.5%.

Grid connection delays remain ⁠a major ⁠challenge, with projects awaiting connections worldwide rising 60% over the past year, equivalent to four times the wind and solar capacity connected to grids during the same period.

Grid constraints are expected to slow growth in advanced economies, with annual additions in Europe through 2031 forecast to remain broadly in line with 2025 levels.

Renewable energy is expected to meet 6% of global transport energy demand by 2031, while higher fuel-blending mandates prompted the IEA to raise its biofuels forecast by 40% from last year's report.