Goldman Sees Turkish Interest Rates Falling by 20%

Headquarters of the Turkish Central Bank (Reuters)
Headquarters of the Turkish Central Bank (Reuters)
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Goldman Sees Turkish Interest Rates Falling by 20%

Headquarters of the Turkish Central Bank (Reuters)
Headquarters of the Turkish Central Bank (Reuters)

Economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expected Türkiye's central bank to take a sharp pivot toward monetary easing prompting interest rates to fall by 20% by the end of the year.

Once sequential inflation begins to fall at a steep pace from the third quarter, policymakers will cut rates and take their benchmark to 25%, from its current 45%, according to Goldman’s Clemens Grafe and Basak Edizgil, according to Bloomberg.

“With inflation falling faster than markets are pricing, we think a mid-year start to the easing cycle would not be premature,” Grafe and Edizgil said in a report.

Goldman’s view stems from its upbeat inflation forecast for Türkiye that’s lower than the central bank’s own estimate of 36%.

Goldman also believes “macroprudential policy will be tightened to slow consumer lending in particular in credit card products, a segment where lending has recently accelerated.”



Colombia Joins Belt and Road Initiative as China Courts Latin America 

Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with Colombian President Gustavo Petro at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, 14 May 2025. (EPA /Xinhua / Huang Jingwen)
Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with Colombian President Gustavo Petro at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, 14 May 2025. (EPA /Xinhua / Huang Jingwen)
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Colombia Joins Belt and Road Initiative as China Courts Latin America 

Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with Colombian President Gustavo Petro at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, 14 May 2025. (EPA /Xinhua / Huang Jingwen)
Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with Colombian President Gustavo Petro at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, 14 May 2025. (EPA /Xinhua / Huang Jingwen)

Colombia formally agreed on Wednesday to join China's vast Belt and Road infrastructure initiative, as Beijing draws Latin America closer in a bid to counter the United States.

Latin America has emerged as a key battleground in US President Donald Trump's confrontations with China, and the region is coming under pressure from Washington to choose a side.

China has surpassed the United States as the biggest trading partner of Brazil, Peru, Chile and other Latin American nations, and two-thirds of countries there have signed up to Chinese leader Xi Jinping's Belt and Road infrastructure drive.

On the sidelines of a major gathering of regional leaders in Beijing on Wednesday, Colombia became the latest country to join the massive global initiative.

Colombia's foreign ministry hailed the agreement as a "historic step that opens up new opportunities for investment, technological cooperation, and sustainable development for both countries".

And after a meeting with Colombian President Gustavo Petro, Xi urged the countries to take the opportunity of Colombia formally joining the "Belt and Road Initiative family" to enhance their cooperation, Beijing's state media said.

Posting a video of the signing to social media platform X, Petro wrote that "the history of our foreign relations is changing".

"From now on, Colombia will interact with the entire world on a footing of equality and freedom," he wrote.

The BRI is a central pillar of Xi's bid to expand China's economic and political clout overseas.

For more than a decade, it has provided investment for infrastructure and other large-scale projects around the world, offering Beijing political and economic leverage in return.

Last year, Xi inaugurated Latin America's first Beijing-funded port in Chancay, Peru -- a symbol of the Asian superpower's growing influence on the continent.

- 'Defenders of free trade' -

This week's China-CELAC Forum in Beijing has seen China cast itself as the defender of the multilateral order and the backer of the Global South, with Xi pledging on Monday $9.2 billion in credit towards development.

That pledge was part of a broad set of initiatives aimed at deepening cooperation, including on infrastructure and clean energy.

Beijing will also cooperate in counterterrorism and fighting transnational organized crime, Xi said, as well as enhancing exchanges such as scholarships and training programs.

During a meeting with Chilean President Gabriel Boric on Wednesday, Xi said that the "resurgence of unilateralism and protectionism is severely impacting the international economic and trade order," according to Chinese state news agency Xinhua.

"As staunch defenders of multilateralism and free trade, China and Chile should strengthen multilateral coordination and jointly safeguard the common interests of the Global South," Xi told Boric.

Also in attendance at the China-CELAC forum was Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who arrived in Beijing on Saturday for a five-day state visit.

Addressing delegates, Lula said his region did not "want to repeat history and start a new Cold War", adding: "Our goal is to be an asset to the multilateral order for a global good".

In talks with Lula on Tuesday, Xi said the two countries should "strengthen cooperation" and together "oppose unilateralism", according to Chinese state media.

The United States and China have faced off in Latin America, including over the Panama Canal, which Trump has for months vowed to reclaim from alleged Chinese influence.

Washington considered a Hong Kong company's operation of ports at both ends of the interoceanic waterway to be a threat to its national security, but Beijing has dismissed the claims.

And China's market regulator is looking into a deal by Hong Kong conglomerate CK Hutchison to offload 43 ports in 23 countries -- including its two on the Panama Canal -- to a US-led consortium.

The world's two largest economies are two of the top users of the canal, through which five percent of all global shipping passes.