Ministry: Japan's Reliance on Middle East Oil Rose to 95.1% in 2023

Oil storage tanks in Japan. (Reuters)
Oil storage tanks in Japan. (Reuters)
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Ministry: Japan's Reliance on Middle East Oil Rose to 95.1% in 2023

Oil storage tanks in Japan. (Reuters)
Oil storage tanks in Japan. (Reuters)

Japan's reliance on crude oil supplied from the Middle East has increased by one percentage point to 95.1% last year, data released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed on Wednesday.

Japan imported 147.7 million kiloliters of oil last year (2.5 million barrels per day), down 7% from a year before, with the share of Saudi Arabia and the UAE rising to 40.4% and 39% from 38.1% and 37.9%, respectively.

Share of oil imports from Russia fell further to just 0.1% of total crude oil imports by Japan, down from 1.3% in 2022 and 4% in 2021, a year before Moscow invaded Ukraine, triggering Western sanctions.

Oil prices settled lower on Wednesday, pressured by low economic activity in leading crude importer China.

Brent crude futures for March, which expire on Wednesday, settled down 87 cents, or about 1.1%, to $82 a barrel, while the more actively traded April contract settled down 80 cents, or about 1%, at $81.70.

West Texas Intermediate crude for March delivery fell 82 cents, or 1.1%, to $77 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Manufacturing activity in China, the world's second-largest economy, contracted for a fourth straight month in January, an official factory survey showed on Wednesday.

"The factory data confirms our view that China, at least for now, is an impediment to global oil demand growth," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM.

Meanwhile, the Israel-Hamas war has widened the conflict in the Red Sea between the United States and Iran-aligned Houthi militants.

But while that has disrupted oil and natural gas tanker shipping, which is driving up delivery costs and starting to affect oil supplies, a Reuters poll suggested that record production in the West and slow economic growth will keep a lid on prices and limit any geopolitical risk premium.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that current oil prices adequately reflect the current market situation, while global oil demand is widely seen rising by around 2 million barrels per day.

He declined to elaborate more just a day before leading ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, known as OPEC+, will meet online.

The panel, named the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, can call for a full OPEC+ meeting or make recommendations on policy.

OPEC+ will likely decide its oil production levels for April and beyond in the coming weeks, OPEC+ sources said, adding that a meeting of a key ministerial panel next Thursday would take place too early to take decisions on further output policy.

"The market requires silence; any words somehow affect the market. I want to say that the current (oil) price on the market adequately reflects the current situation," Novak told reporters.



Dollar Resumes Upward Trend, Euro Hits Lowest since Nov 2022

US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
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Dollar Resumes Upward Trend, Euro Hits Lowest since Nov 2022

US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

The dollar hit new multi-month highs against the euro and the pound on Thursday, the first day of 2025 trading, as it built on last year's strong gains on expectations US interest rates will remain high relative to peers.

The euro fell to as low as $1.0314, its lowest since November 2022, down around 0.3% on the day. It is now down nearly 8% since its late September highs above $1.12, one major victim of the dollar's recent surge.

Traders anticipate deep interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank in 2025, with markets pricing in at least four 25 basis point cuts, while not being certain of even two such moves from the US Federal Reserve, Reuters reported.

The dollar was hitting milestones across the board and the pound was last down 0.65% at $1.2443, its lowest since April, with its fall accelerating after it broke through resistance around $1.2475.

"It's more of the same at the start of the new calendar year with the dollar continuing to extend its advances in anticipation of Trump putting in place friendly policies at the start of his term," said Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG.

US President-elect Donald Trump's policies are widely expected to not only boost growth but also add to upward price pressure. That will lead to a Fed cautious about cutting rates too much further, in turn underpinning US Treasury yields and boost dollar demand.

A weaker growth outlook outside the US, conflict in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war have also added to demand for the dollar.

The dollar also reversed an early loss on Thursday to climb against the Japanese yen, and was last up 0.17% at 157.26.

It reached a five-month high above 158 yen in late December, potentially putting pressure on the Bank of Japan, which is expected to raise interest rates early this year, but possibly not immediately.

"If dollar/yen were to break above 160 ahead of the next BOJ meeting, that could be a catalyst for the BOJ to hike in January rather than wait until March," said Hardman.

"Though for now markets are leaning towards March after the dovish comments from (governor Kazuo) Ueda at his last press conference."

Even those who are more cautious about sustained dollar strength think it could take a long time to play out.

"The dollar may be vulnerable – but only if the US data confound market expectations that the Fed doesn’t cut rates more than once in the first half of this year, and not by more than 50bp in the whole of 2025," said Kit Juckes chief FX strategist at Societe Generale in a note.

"There's a good chance of that happening, but it seems very unlikely that cracks in US growth will appear early in the year – hence my preference for taking any bearish dollar thoughts with me into hibernation until the weather improves."

China's yuan languished at 14-month lows as worries about the health of the world's second-biggest economy, the prospect of US import tariffs from the Trump administration and sliding local yields weighed on investor sentiment.

Elsewhere, the Swiss franc, another victim of the recent dollar strength, gave back early gains to last trade flat at 0.90755 per dollar.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars, however, managed to break away from two-year lows touched on Tuesday. The Aussie was 0.36% higher at $0.6215 having dropped 9% in 2024, its weakest yearly performance since 2018.

The kiwi rose 0.47% to $0.5614.