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Federal Reserve System Study: OPEC Decisions Ensure Oil Markets’ Stability

A model of an oil rig with the OPEC logo in the background. (Reuters)
A model of an oil rig with the OPEC logo in the background. (Reuters)
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Federal Reserve System Study: OPEC Decisions Ensure Oil Markets’ Stability

A model of an oil rig with the OPEC logo in the background. (Reuters)
A model of an oil rig with the OPEC logo in the background. (Reuters)

A recent study of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System has concluded that OPEC’s credible decisions and research ensure the oil markets’ stability.
“We find that OPEC communication reduces oil price volatility and prompts market participants to rebalance their positions,” according to the study published on the Banks’ website.
“Our analysis indicates that market participants assess OPEC communications as providing an important signal to the crude oil market,” the study added.
“We analyze the content of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) communications and whether it provides information to the crude oil market. To this end, we derive an empirical strategy which allows us to measure OPEC’s public signal and test whether market participants find it credible.”
“Using Structural Topic Models, we analyze OPEC narratives and identify several topics related to fundamental factors, such as demand, supply, and speculative activity in the crude oil market,” it added.
“OPEC’s objective is ‘[...] to coordinate and unify the petroleum policies of its Member Countries and ensure the stabilization of oil markets [...]’. A well-functioning crude oil market may have positive implications for the economy and inflation.”
OPEC on Tuesday stuck to its forecast for relatively strong growth in global oil demand in 2024 and 2025 and raised its economic growth forecasts for both years saying there was further upside potential.

In a monthly report, it said world oil demand will rise by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 and by 1.85 million bpd in 2025. Both forecasts were unchanged from last month.
A further boost to economic growth could give additional tailwind to oil demand. OPEC's 2024 demand growth forecast is already higher than that of other forecasters such as the International Energy Agency, although the wider OPEC+ alliance is still cutting output to support the market.
OPEC said a "positive trend" for economic growth was expected to extend into the first half of 2024 and raised its economic growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 by 0.1 percentage points.
OPEC and the wider OPEC+ alliance have implemented a series of output cuts since late 2022 to support the market. A new cut for the first quarter took effect last month.

 

 

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Business

Oil Prices Extend Gains on Concerns of Potential US-Iran Conflict

FILE PHOTO: The Phillips 66 Lake Charles Refinery is pictured in West Lake, Louisiana, US, June 12, 2018. REUTERS/Jonathan Bachman/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: The Phillips 66 Lake Charles Refinery is pictured in West Lake, Louisiana, US, June 12, 2018. REUTERS/Jonathan Bachman/File Photo
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Oil Prices Extend Gains on Concerns of Potential US-Iran Conflict

FILE PHOTO: The Phillips 66 Lake Charles Refinery is pictured in West Lake, Louisiana, US, June 12, 2018. REUTERS/Jonathan Bachman/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: The Phillips 66 Lake Charles Refinery is pictured in West Lake, Louisiana, US, June 12, 2018. REUTERS/Jonathan Bachman/File Photo

Oil prices rose on Thursday as the US and Iran attempted to ease a standoff in talks over Tehran's nuclear program while both sides heightened military activity in the key oil-producing region.

Brent futures climbed 23 cents, or 0.3% to $70.58 a barrel by 0735 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 25 cents, or 0.4%, to trade at $65.44 a barrel.

Both benchmarks settled more than 4% higher on Wednesday, posting their highest settlements since January 30, as traders priced in the risk of supply disruptions in the event of ‌a conflict.

"Oil prices are ‌rallying as the market becomes increasingly concerned over the potential ‌for ⁠imminent US action ⁠against Iran," said ING analysts in a Thursday note.

Iranian state media reported the country had shut down the Strait of Hormuz for a few hours on Tuesday, without making clear whether the waterway had fully reopened. About 20% ⁠of the world's oil supply passes through the waterway.

"Tensions between Washington ‌and Tehran remain high, but the prevailing view ‌is that full-scale armed conflict is unlikely, prompting a wait-and-see approach," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist of ‌Nissan Securities Investment, a unit of Nissan Securities.

"US President Donald Trump does not ‌want a sharp rise in crude prices, and even if military action occurs, it would likely be limited to short-term air strikes," Kikukawa added.

A degree of progress was made during Iran talks in Geneva this week but distance remained on some issues, the White House said on Wednesday, ‌adding that it expected Tehran to come back with more details in a couple of weeks.

Iran issued a notice to ⁠airmen (NOTAM) that ⁠it plans rocket launches in areas across its south on Thursday from 0330 GMT to 1330 GMT, according to the US Federal Aviation Administration website.

At the same time, the US has deployed warships near Iran, with US Vice President JD Vance saying Washington was weighing whether to continue diplomatic engagement with Tehran or pursue "another option".

Meanwhile, two days of peace talks in Geneva between Ukraine and Russia ended on Wednesday without a breakthrough, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy accusing Moscow of stalling US-mediated efforts to end the four-year-old war.

US crude and gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Wednesday, contrary to expectations in a Reuters poll that crude stocks would rise by 2.1 million barrels in the week to February 13.

Official US oil inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration are due on Thursday.

Business

Madinah Sees Tourism Surge Ahead of Ramadan, Spending Tops $13.9 Billion

A cluster of buildings and hotels surrounding the Prophet’s Mosque (SPA). 
A cluster of buildings and hotels surrounding the Prophet’s Mosque (SPA). 
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Madinah Sees Tourism Surge Ahead of Ramadan, Spending Tops $13.9 Billion

A cluster of buildings and hotels surrounding the Prophet’s Mosque (SPA). 
A cluster of buildings and hotels surrounding the Prophet’s Mosque (SPA). 

Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Tourism, Ahmed Al-Khateeb, has toured hospitality facilities and visitor services in Madinah as part of the “Spirit of Ramadan” inspection tour, which also included Jeddah and Makkah.

New data show visitor numbers exceeded 21 million over the past year, a 12 percent increase from 2024, while total tourism spending reached SAR 52 billion (about $13.9 billion), up 22 percent.

The visit focused on assessing the sector’s readiness for the Ramadan season, evaluating service quality, and supporting ongoing and upcoming tourism projects.

Madinah posted strong tourism performance in 2025, driven by higher visitor inflows and expanded hospitality capacity, reinforcing its position as a leading religious destination within Saudi Arabia’s tourism landscape.

Demand growth has been matched by a sharp rise in supply. Licensed hospitality facilities increased to 610, up 35 percent, while the number of licensed rooms surpassed 76,000, a 24 percent gain, strengthening the city’s ability to accommodate during peak seasons such as Ramadan and Hajj.

Travel and tourism offices also grew to more than 240, reflecting a 29 percent expansion in supporting services.

Al-Khateeb said the entry of international hospitality brands and new projects over the past five years underscores both sectoral growth and rising investor confidence in the Kingdom’s tourism ecosystem.

“The landscape today is different. The sector is growing steadily, supported by a system that empowers investors and facilitates their journey, with a promising future ahead,” he said.

To expand hotel capacity, the minister inaugurated the Radisson Hotel Madinah, a project worth more than SAR 39 million (around $10 million) and financed by the Tourism Development Fund.

The 2025 performance signals a shift from traditional seasonal growth toward more sustainable expansion built on diversified offerings, improved service quality, and a stronger contribution to the local economy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Business

Airbus Planning Record Commercial Aircraft Deliveries in 2026

An Airbus A350-1000 at the Singapore Airshow on February 4. The company said Thursday it aims to deliver a record number of aircraft this year. Roslan RAHMAN / AFP/File
An Airbus A350-1000 at the Singapore Airshow on February 4. The company said Thursday it aims to deliver a record number of aircraft this year. Roslan RAHMAN / AFP/File
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Airbus Planning Record Commercial Aircraft Deliveries in 2026

An Airbus A350-1000 at the Singapore Airshow on February 4. The company said Thursday it aims to deliver a record number of aircraft this year. Roslan RAHMAN / AFP/File
An Airbus A350-1000 at the Singapore Airshow on February 4. The company said Thursday it aims to deliver a record number of aircraft this year. Roslan RAHMAN / AFP/File

Plane maker Airbus aims to deliver a record number of commercial aircraft this year, the company said Thursday, capitalizing on "strong demand" and a jump in profit in 2025.

"2025 was a landmark year, characterized by very strong demand for our products and services across all businesses," CEO Guillaume Faury said in a press release announcing annual results.

The European manufacturer said it received 1,000 orders for commercial planes in 2025, with net orders of 889 after taking cancellations into account, and 793 delivered.

Last year, its overall profit jumped 23 percent to 5.2 billion euros ($6.1 billion).

The company said it is targeting "around 870 commercial aircraft deliveries" this year.

"As the basis for its 2026 guidance, the Company assumes no additional disruptions to global trade or the world economy, air traffic, the supply chain, its internal operations, and its ability to deliver products and services," it said in its outlook.

Both Airbus and its rival Boeing have struggled to return to pre-pandemic production levels after their entire network of suppliers was disrupted, even as airlines are eager to modernize their fleets with more fuel-efficient aircraft and expand to meet an expected increase in passenger numbers over the coming decades.