Israeli Economy Shrinks by 19.4% in 3 Months Due to War in Gaza

Demonstrators hold signs while blocking traffic as they attend a rally calling for the release of hostages kidnapped in the deadly October 7 attack on Israel by Hamas from Gaza, in Tel Aviv, Israel, February 19, 2024. REUTERS/Dylan Martinez
Demonstrators hold signs while blocking traffic as they attend a rally calling for the release of hostages kidnapped in the deadly October 7 attack on Israel by Hamas from Gaza, in Tel Aviv, Israel, February 19, 2024. REUTERS/Dylan Martinez
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Israeli Economy Shrinks by 19.4% in 3 Months Due to War in Gaza

Demonstrators hold signs while blocking traffic as they attend a rally calling for the release of hostages kidnapped in the deadly October 7 attack on Israel by Hamas from Gaza, in Tel Aviv, Israel, February 19, 2024. REUTERS/Dylan Martinez
Demonstrators hold signs while blocking traffic as they attend a rally calling for the release of hostages kidnapped in the deadly October 7 attack on Israel by Hamas from Gaza, in Tel Aviv, Israel, February 19, 2024. REUTERS/Dylan Martinez

Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics said Monday the Israeli economy plunged 19.4% in the final three months of 2023, affected by the war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

For all of 2023, the Israeli economy grew 2 percent, down from 6.5 percent in 2022.

On February 9, Moody’s Investors Service decided to downgrade Israel’s credit rating.

Moody's lowered Israel's credit ratings to A2 from A1 with a negative outlook, downgraded from stable, underscoring the economic damage of the country's war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

The war was sparked by the Hamas October 7 attack on southern Israel.

The Taub Center for Social Policy Studies, an Israeli think tank, said the Israeli economy is expected to shrink by 2 percent this quarter, with hundreds of thousands of workers displaced by the war with Hamas or called up as reservists.

The report, published by The New York Times last December, stated that about 20 percent of the Israeli work force was missing from the labor market in October, up from 3 percent before the fighting began.

The spike in unemployment reflects the fact that about 900,000 people are now either enlisted in the Army, unemployed at home, fled from settlements where attacks have been concentrated, such as by the borders of Lebanon and Gaza, or are unable to work due to the destruction of their work industry, according to the report.



Ukraine Threatens to Halt Transit of Russian Oil to Europe

A view of storage tanks and pipelines at the Mero central oil tank farm, which moves crude through the Druzhba oil pipeline, near Nelahozeves, Czech Republic, August 10, 2022. REUTERS/David W Cerny/File Photo
A view of storage tanks and pipelines at the Mero central oil tank farm, which moves crude through the Druzhba oil pipeline, near Nelahozeves, Czech Republic, August 10, 2022. REUTERS/David W Cerny/File Photo
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Ukraine Threatens to Halt Transit of Russian Oil to Europe

A view of storage tanks and pipelines at the Mero central oil tank farm, which moves crude through the Druzhba oil pipeline, near Nelahozeves, Czech Republic, August 10, 2022. REUTERS/David W Cerny/File Photo
A view of storage tanks and pipelines at the Mero central oil tank farm, which moves crude through the Druzhba oil pipeline, near Nelahozeves, Czech Republic, August 10, 2022. REUTERS/David W Cerny/File Photo

A top aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday said Kyiv would halt the transit of Russian oil across its territory at the end of the year, when the current contract expires and is not renewed.

Mykhailo Podolyak said in an interview with the Novini.Live broadcaster that current transit contracts for Russian supplies that run through the end of the year will not be renewed.

“There is no doubt that it will all end on January 1, 2025,” he said.

Kiev says it is prepared to transport gas from the Central Asian countries or Azerbaijan to Europe, but not from Russia, as it is crucial for Ukraine to deprive Russia of its sources of income from the sale of raw materials after it attacked its neighbor well over two years ago.

The contract for the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine to Europe between the state-owned companies Gazprom and Naftogaz ends on December 31.

Despite the launch of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Ukrainians have fulfilled the contract terms - in part at the insistence of its European neighbors, especially Hungary.

But the leadership in Kiev has repeatedly made it clear that it wants the shipments to end.

Meanwhile, the Czech Republic energy security envoy Vaclav Bartuska said on Friday that any potential halt in oil supplies via the Druzhba pipeline through Ukraine from Russia from next year would not be a problem for the country.

Responding to a Reuters question – on comments by Ukrainian presidential aide Mykhailo Podolyak that flows of Russian oil may stop from January – Bartuska said Ukraine had also in the past warned of a potential halt.

“This is not the first time, this time maybe they mean it seriously – we shall see,” Bartuska said in a text message. “For the Czech Republic, it is not a problem.”

To end partial dependency on the Druzhba pipeline, Czech state-owned pipeline operator MERO has been investing in raising the capacity of the TAL pipeline from Italy to Germany, which connects to the IKL pipeline supplying the Czech Republic.

From next year, the increased capacity would be sufficient for the total needs of the country’s two refineries, owned by Poland’s Orlen, of up to 8 million tons of crude per year.

MERO has said it planned to achieve the country’s independence from Russian oil from the start of 2025, although the TAL upgrade would be finished by June 2025.

On Friday, oil prices stabilized, heading for a weekly increase, as disruptions in Libyan production and Iraq’s plans to curb output raised concerns about supply.

Meanwhile, data showing that the US economy grew faster than initially estimated eased recession fears.

However, signs of weakening demand, particularly in China, capped gains.

Brent crude futures for October delivery, which expire on Friday, fell by 7 cents, or 0.09%, to $79.87 per barrel. The more actively traded November contract rose 5 cents, or 0.06%, to $78.87.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures added 6 cents, or 0.08%, to $75.97 per barrel.

The day before, both benchmarks had risen by more than $1, and so far this week, they have gained 1.1% and 1.6%, respectively.

Additionally, a drop in Libyan exports and the prospect of lower Iraqi crude production in September are expected to help keep the oil market undersupplied.

Over half of Libya’s oil production, around 700,000 barrels per day (bpd), was halted on Thursday, and exports were suspended at several ports due to a standoff between rival political factions.

Elsewhere, Iraq plans to reduce oil output in September as part of a plan to compensate for producing over the quota agreed with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a source with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Thursday.

Iraq, which produced 4.25 million bpd in July, will cut output to between 3.85 million and 3.9 million bpd next month, the source said.