G20 Warns of Global Economy Challenges, Geopolitical Tension

The meeting aims to review global economic developments at a time characterized by growth slowdown and mounting pressures resulting from record debt burdens. (G20 website)
The meeting aims to review global economic developments at a time characterized by growth slowdown and mounting pressures resulting from record debt burdens. (G20 website)
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G20 Warns of Global Economy Challenges, Geopolitical Tension

The meeting aims to review global economic developments at a time characterized by growth slowdown and mounting pressures resulting from record debt burdens. (G20 website)
The meeting aims to review global economic developments at a time characterized by growth slowdown and mounting pressures resulting from record debt burdens. (G20 website)

Group of 20 finance leaders meeting in Brazil this week are expected to make only a passing reference in their closing statement to regional conflicts, according to a draft version seen by Reuters, due to deep divisions over wars in Gaza and Ukraine.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday called on allies to move forward urgently to unlock the value of frozen Russian sovereign assets to help Ukraine.

"Risks to the global economic outlook are more balanced," with faster-than-expected disinflation and more growth-friendly fiscal consolidation underpinning growth, the draft said.

"Among the downside risks to the global economy are [wars and] escalating conflicts, geoeconomic fragmentation, rising protectionism, and trade routes disruptions," the draft communique said.

The reference to "wars" in brackets reflects efforts to reach a consensus on the final language, said a person familiar with the matter.

G20 finance officials are expected to set aside geopolitics and focus on global economic issues as they gather in Sao Paulo this week.

Brazil's coordinator of the finance track at G20, Tatiana Rosito, said on Tuesday that the group is moving towards a short communique that reflects Brazilian priorities.

In the draft communique, the G20 finance leaders gave an optimistic view on the outlook for price pressures. Inflation has receded in most economies, they said, thanks in part to "appropriate" monetary policies, easing supply chain bottlenecks and moderating commodity prices.

The draft also said the G20 group reaffirms their existing exchange-rate commitment, which warns against excess volatility and volatile currency moves as undesirable for economic growth.

Meanwhile, Yellen said Israel has agreed to resume tax revenue transfers to the Palestinian Authority to fund basic services and bolster the West Bank economy. She called on Israel to allow commerce to resume there for the sake of its own economy and that of the Palestinians.

In the remarks, Yellen said she also urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a recent letter to reinstate work permits for Palestinians and reduce barriers to commerce within the West Bank.

"These actions are vital for the economic well-being of Palestinians and Israelis alike," Yellen said.

"We continue to explore options for strengthening the West Bank economy" following an executive order issued by President Joe Biden earlier this month, Yellen added.

Yellen said Washington supported the World Bank’s commitments to emergency food security assistance in Gaza and economic support for the West Bank, and other ongoing loan programs by regional development banks and the International Monetary Fund in neighboring Egypt and Jordan.

She said Washington had not seen a significant impact of the conflict on the global economy but would continue to monitor the situation closely.

She noted that Washington had also led efforts to counter the financing of Hamas and responded to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.



Gold Edges Up on Weak US Dollar, Political Uncertainty

Gold bars from the vault of a bank are seen in this illustration picture taken in Zurich November 20, 2014. - Reuters
Gold bars from the vault of a bank are seen in this illustration picture taken in Zurich November 20, 2014. - Reuters
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Gold Edges Up on Weak US Dollar, Political Uncertainty

Gold bars from the vault of a bank are seen in this illustration picture taken in Zurich November 20, 2014. - Reuters
Gold bars from the vault of a bank are seen in this illustration picture taken in Zurich November 20, 2014. - Reuters

Gold prices edged higher on Wednesday, aided by a weaker US dollar and political uncertainty following the latest import tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump.

Spot gold firmed 0.1% $2,918.83 an ounce as of 0955 GMT after rising nearly 1% on Tuesday. Prices hit a record high of $2,956.15 on February 24 and have gained 11% so far this year.

US gold futures rose 0.3% to $2,929.70.

"Uncertainty is food and water for gold and hence the bias on prices is to the upside," independent analyst Ross Norman said, Reuters reported.

"Gold looks content to consolidate after recent gains, but with one eye firmly on the $3,000 level."

The dollar index dropped to a three-month low, making bullion more appealing to other currency holders.

In an address to Congress, Trump said further tariffs would follow on April 2, including "reciprocal tariffs" and non-tariff actions aimed at balancing out years of trade imbalances. This came just after he followed through on new 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada that took effect on Tuesday, along with a doubling of duties on Chinese goods to 20%.

Meanwhile, top bullion consumer China unlocked more fiscal stimulus, promising greater efforts to support consumption and cushion the impact of an escalating trade war with the United States.

Markets now await the ADP employment report due at 1315 GMT and US nonfarm payrolls on Friday for cues on the US interest rate trajectory.

"Geopolitical events and tariffs are currently overshadowing economic data... Significant deviations from market expectations would be needed to create meaningful movement, and any reaction to this week’s ADP and payrolls data is likely to be short-lived," said Zain Vawda, market analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA.

Spot silver advanced 1% to $32.32 an ounce, platinum gained 1% to $970.20, and palladium added 1% to $951.50.