G20 Warns of Global Economy Challenges, Geopolitical Tension

The meeting aims to review global economic developments at a time characterized by growth slowdown and mounting pressures resulting from record debt burdens. (G20 website)
The meeting aims to review global economic developments at a time characterized by growth slowdown and mounting pressures resulting from record debt burdens. (G20 website)
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G20 Warns of Global Economy Challenges, Geopolitical Tension

The meeting aims to review global economic developments at a time characterized by growth slowdown and mounting pressures resulting from record debt burdens. (G20 website)
The meeting aims to review global economic developments at a time characterized by growth slowdown and mounting pressures resulting from record debt burdens. (G20 website)

Group of 20 finance leaders meeting in Brazil this week are expected to make only a passing reference in their closing statement to regional conflicts, according to a draft version seen by Reuters, due to deep divisions over wars in Gaza and Ukraine.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday called on allies to move forward urgently to unlock the value of frozen Russian sovereign assets to help Ukraine.

"Risks to the global economic outlook are more balanced," with faster-than-expected disinflation and more growth-friendly fiscal consolidation underpinning growth, the draft said.

"Among the downside risks to the global economy are [wars and] escalating conflicts, geoeconomic fragmentation, rising protectionism, and trade routes disruptions," the draft communique said.

The reference to "wars" in brackets reflects efforts to reach a consensus on the final language, said a person familiar with the matter.

G20 finance officials are expected to set aside geopolitics and focus on global economic issues as they gather in Sao Paulo this week.

Brazil's coordinator of the finance track at G20, Tatiana Rosito, said on Tuesday that the group is moving towards a short communique that reflects Brazilian priorities.

In the draft communique, the G20 finance leaders gave an optimistic view on the outlook for price pressures. Inflation has receded in most economies, they said, thanks in part to "appropriate" monetary policies, easing supply chain bottlenecks and moderating commodity prices.

The draft also said the G20 group reaffirms their existing exchange-rate commitment, which warns against excess volatility and volatile currency moves as undesirable for economic growth.

Meanwhile, Yellen said Israel has agreed to resume tax revenue transfers to the Palestinian Authority to fund basic services and bolster the West Bank economy. She called on Israel to allow commerce to resume there for the sake of its own economy and that of the Palestinians.

In the remarks, Yellen said she also urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a recent letter to reinstate work permits for Palestinians and reduce barriers to commerce within the West Bank.

"These actions are vital for the economic well-being of Palestinians and Israelis alike," Yellen said.

"We continue to explore options for strengthening the West Bank economy" following an executive order issued by President Joe Biden earlier this month, Yellen added.

Yellen said Washington supported the World Bank’s commitments to emergency food security assistance in Gaza and economic support for the West Bank, and other ongoing loan programs by regional development banks and the International Monetary Fund in neighboring Egypt and Jordan.

She said Washington had not seen a significant impact of the conflict on the global economy but would continue to monitor the situation closely.

She noted that Washington had also led efforts to counter the financing of Hamas and responded to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.



Growth of Non-Oil Sectors Position Saudi Arabia Among Leading Global Economies

 King Abdullah Port, Saudi Arabia (Asharq Al-Awsat)
 King Abdullah Port, Saudi Arabia (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Growth of Non-Oil Sectors Position Saudi Arabia Among Leading Global Economies

 King Abdullah Port, Saudi Arabia (Asharq Al-Awsat)
 King Abdullah Port, Saudi Arabia (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Saudi Arabia’s economy continued its upward trajectory in 2024, solidifying its status as one of the world’s most stable and fastest-growing markets. This momentum is being driven by the Kingdom’s unwavering commitment to economic diversification — a central pillar of Vision 2030 — which has significantly boosted non-oil sectors, expanded private sector participation, and increased the economy’s ability to generate jobs and attract investment.

Non-oil activities now contribute a record 51% to real GDP, marking a major milestone in the country’s transformation journey.

According to the Vision 2030 annual report, Saudi Arabia’s real non-oil GDP grew by 3.9% in 2024 compared to the previous year, fueled by ongoing investments across diverse sectors. Non-oil activities alone expanded by 4.3% year-on-year, reflecting the success of structural reforms and strategic national programs.

At the heart of Vision 2030 is the ambition to build a thriving economy. One of the key benchmarks is improving Saudi Arabia’s position in global GDP rankings. In 2016, the Kingdom ranked 20th worldwide. By 2030, it aims to break into the top 15, with a targeted GDP of SAR 6.5 trillion ($1.7 trillion).

In early 2024, Saudi Arabia adopted a new moving-chain methodology to measure GDP more accurately. Under this updated system, real GDP has grown consistently since 2016 at a compound annual rate of 1.75%, excluding the pandemic-induced downturn in 2020. Non-oil GDP, meanwhile, has shown even stronger performance, expanding at a 3.01% annual pace over the same period.

While the 2024 non-oil GDP target was narrowly missed, the outcome reached 98% of the goal — a strong showing amid global uncertainties. Leading contributors included wholesale and retail trade, hospitality, transportation, logistics, and information technology.

Non-oil exports also played a pivotal role in economic growth, achieving over 75% of their annual targets. Gains came primarily from increased exports of non-oil goods and a sharp rise in re-exports, underlining Saudi Arabia’s growing role in global trade flows.

The private sector’s role in the economy has expanded significantly, with its contribution to GDP reaching 47% — surpassing the 2024 target. Since 2016, this contribution has grown at a compound annual rate of 1.94%.

This progress reflects ongoing efforts to reduce reliance on oil, empower private enterprise, and enhance the Kingdom’s global competitiveness. Key initiatives include national strategies aimed at unlocking sectoral potential, the Public Investment Fund’s push to stimulate private capital, and the successful drive to attract global companies to relocate their regional headquarters to Saudi Arabia.

The government continues to foster a dynamic business environment, supporting small and medium enterprises (SMEs) through regulatory reforms and major development projects. These efforts span several sectors, including manufacturing, transport, logistics, and foreign investment.

Global Confidence, Positive Outlook

International confidence in the Saudi economy remains strong. In 2024, the world’s top three credit rating agencies affirmed the Kingdom’s sovereign creditworthiness. Moody’s assigned a rating of “Aa3” with a stable outlook; Fitch rated it “A+” with a stable outlook; and S&P awarded an “A/A-1” rating, also with a stable outlook.

Global institutions are also optimistic about the Kingdom’s growth prospects. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecasts Saudi economic growth at 3.8% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026 — well above the global average.