Gold Near Two-month Peak as Dollar Drifts

US dollar drifted within a tight range on Monday, pressured by lower Treasury yields - Reuters
US dollar drifted within a tight range on Monday, pressured by lower Treasury yields - Reuters
TT

Gold Near Two-month Peak as Dollar Drifts

US dollar drifted within a tight range on Monday, pressured by lower Treasury yields - Reuters
US dollar drifted within a tight range on Monday, pressured by lower Treasury yields - Reuters

Gold prices lingered close to a two-month high on Monday, after softer US economic readings last week cemented prospects of an interest rate cut in June by the Federal Reserve.

Spot gold edged 0.1% lower to $2,081.34 per ounce, as of 0630 GMT, but hovered near $2088.19, a level seen on Friday when the contract hit its highest since Dec. 28. US gold futures fell 0.3% to $2,090.10.

"The key drivers for gold is what's going to happen on the interest rate front - and we saw a move higher in gold on Friday because a series of macro releases out of the US moved the narrative towards the Fed possibly decreasing rates sooner than expected," Marex analyst Edward Meir said.

Gold prices rose about $50 last week, with absolutely all of the gains coming on the last two days on the back of poor US manufacturing and construction spending data and easing price pressures, according to the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.

This came as the US dollar drifted within a tight range on Monday, pressured by lower Treasury yields, as traders waited for more crucial economic data for fresh clues on the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

The euro was firm following Friday's 0.33% advance, with a European Central Bank policy decision looming on Thursday.

The yen fluctuated around the closely watched 150 per dollar level, as investors tried to assess whether the Bank of Japan's exit from its negative interest rate policy could happen as soon as this month.

The dollar index - which measures the currency against six major peers, including the euro and yen - was little changed at 103.85 as of 0530 GMT, oscillating narrowly in the bottom half of it 103.43-104.97 range of the past month.

The index lost 0.26% on Friday following some weak manufacturing and construction spending data.

That also weighed on Treasury yields, removing additional support for the dollar, with the benchmark 10-year yield sliding as low as 4.178% for the first time in two weeks. The yield stood around 4.2% on Monday.

"Bias appears to be swinging towards a test of range support," in the lead up to key macro releases this week, as well as Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony to Congress, Westpac strategists wrote in a client note.

"However, markets will need a major shift in data to suggest that range support will be anything other than another buying opportunity," that will keep the dollar index within its current range, the note said.

This week brings manufacturing and services ISM readings on Tuesday, with the main event on Friday in the form of monthly payrolls figures.



Inflation Rose to 2.3% in Europe. That Won't Stop the Central Bank from Cutting Interest Rates

A view shows the Bercy Economy and Finance Ministry as a metro operated by the Paris transport network RATP passes over the Pont de Bercy bridge in Paris, France, November 28, 2024. REUTERS/Stephanie Lecocq
A view shows the Bercy Economy and Finance Ministry as a metro operated by the Paris transport network RATP passes over the Pont de Bercy bridge in Paris, France, November 28, 2024. REUTERS/Stephanie Lecocq
TT

Inflation Rose to 2.3% in Europe. That Won't Stop the Central Bank from Cutting Interest Rates

A view shows the Bercy Economy and Finance Ministry as a metro operated by the Paris transport network RATP passes over the Pont de Bercy bridge in Paris, France, November 28, 2024. REUTERS/Stephanie Lecocq
A view shows the Bercy Economy and Finance Ministry as a metro operated by the Paris transport network RATP passes over the Pont de Bercy bridge in Paris, France, November 28, 2024. REUTERS/Stephanie Lecocq

Inflation in the 20 countries that use the euro currency rose in November — but that likely won’t stop the European Central Bank from cutting interest rates as the prospect of new US tariffs from the incoming Trump administration adds to the gloom over weak growth.
The European Union’s harmonized index of consumer prices stood up 2.3% in the year to November, up from 2.0% in October, the EU statistics agency Eurostat reported Friday.
Energy prices fell 1.9% from a year ago, but that was offset by price increases of 3.9% in the services sector, a broad category including haircuts, medical treatment, hotels and restaurants, and sports and entertainment, The Associated Press reported.
Inflation has come down a long way from the peak of 10.6% in October 2022 as the ECB quickly raised rates to cool off price rises. It then started cutting them in June as worries about growth came into sharper focus.
High central bank benchmark rates combat inflation by influencing borrowing costs throughout the economy. Higher rates make buying things on credit — whether a car, a house or a new factory — more expensive and thus reduce demand for goods and take pressure off prices. However, higher rates can also dampen growth.
Growth worries got new emphasis after surveys of purchasing managers compiled by S&P Global showed the eurozone economy was contracting in October. On top of that come concerns about how US trade policy under incoming President Donald Trump, including possible new tariffs, or import taxes on imported goods, might affect Europe’s export-dependent economy. Trump takes office Jan. 20.
The eurozone’s economic output is expected to grow 0.8% for all of this year and 1.3% next year, according to the European Commission’s most recent forecast.
All that has meant the discussion about the Dec. 12 ECB meeting has focused not on whether the Frankfurt-based bank’s rate council will cut rates, but by how much. Market discussion has included the possibility of a larger than usual half-point cut in the benchmark rate, currently 3.25%.
Inflation in Germany, the eurozone’s largest economy, held steady at 2.4%. That “will strengthen opposition against a 50 basis point cut,” said Carsten Brzeski, global chief of macro at ING bank, using financial jargon for a half-percentage-point cut.
The ECB sets interest rate policy for the European Union member countries that have joined the euro currency.