Türkiye Inflation Rises to 67%, Keeping Pressure on Cenbank

Türkiye's annual inflation rate climbed to 67.07% in February, exceeding expectations and keeping up pressure for tight monetary policy amid strong rises in food, hotel and education prices, official data showed on Monday.
Shortly before the data, Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek told local broadcaster BloombergHT that inflation would remain high in the coming months due to base effects and the delayed impact of rate hikes, but would fall in the next 12 months.
The central bank has hiked interest rates by 3,650 basis points since June, but has now paused its tightening cycle saying that the current 45% policy rate is sufficient to bring inflation down, Reuters said.
Yet some economists see a growing prospect of more tightening sometime after nationwide local elections on March 31, given the price pressure and
strong domestic demand.
"Core price pressures continue to run hot and if this continues, the possibility of a restart to the central bank's tightening cycle will only increase in the coming months," said Capital Economics senior emerging markets economist Liam Peach.
Month-on-month consumer price inflation (CPI) was 4.53%, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute, down from 6.70% in January but well above a Reuters poll forecast of 3.7%.
Annual inflation was expected to climb to 65.7% in February before falling to 42.7% by the end of 2024, the poll found.
In January, annual consumer price inflation was 64.86%.
"Inflation was high in January due to temporary effects. There could be some continuation of that in February," Simsek said. "However as of March, inflation will be back on trend. It will become in line with our disinflation path."
LIRA SLIDE
The lira has weakened 6% this year after a near-37% slide in 2023, further stoking import prices. It was slightly weaker at 31.4205 against the dollar after the data.
Though some analysts predict currency weakness after the elections - in which President Tayyip Erdogan's ruling party seeks to reclaim big cities from the opposition - Simsek said authorities want neither a depreciating nor very valuable lira.
Restaurants and hotels led the price rises in February, surging 94.5%, followed by a 91.8% rise in education prices. Heavily weighted food and non-alcoholic drinks prices jumped 71.1%.
Economists have said that February inflation was also driven by the lingering impact of this year's minimum wage hike on the services sector.
Last month, the central bank maintained its 36% year-end inflation target and vowed to keep policy tight for longer to bring inflation down to the forecasted path. The Reuters poll showed annual inflation falling only to 42.7% by year end.
The domestic producer price index was up 3.74% month-on-month in February for an annual rise of 47.29%, the data showed.

Iraq plans to offer 10 gas exploration blocks to US companies during an upcoming visit by Oil Minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani to the United States, he announced on Saturday.
The move is part of Baghdad's efforts to attract US investment into its energy sector, following previous licensing rounds where Chinese firms secured the majority of available fields.
The 10 gas blocks, left unclaimed following six licensing rounds, will be presented in a new bidding process, Iraqi state media said, and comes as Iraq seeks to bolster its domestic gas production.
Abdel-Ghani also said Iraq will launch a new gas investment project by the end of the year at the Al-Faihaa oil field in southern Iraq. The project, with a capacity of 125 million standard cubic feet (mscf), is a key component of Iraq's strategy to enhance its energy infrastructure.
The latest initiative follows recent agreements to develop 13 oil and gas blocks, aimed at increasing Iraq's crude and gas output to supply power plants, which currently rely heavily on Iranian gas imports.

Türkiye Inflation Rises to 67%, Keeping Pressure on Cenbank