Iraq Set to Reopen Own Pipeline as Kurdish Talks Stall

Iraqi flag in front of an oil field (AFP)
Iraqi flag in front of an oil field (AFP)
TT

Iraq Set to Reopen Own Pipeline as Kurdish Talks Stall

Iraqi flag in front of an oil field (AFP)
Iraqi flag in front of an oil field (AFP)

Baghdad is repairing a pipeline that could allow it to send 350,000 barrels per day (bpd) to Türkiye by the end of the month, an Iraqi deputy oil minister said on Monday, a step likely to rile oil foreign companies and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).

The reopening of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, which has been shut for a decade, would provide a rival route to a pipeline from the Kurdistan region that has been shut for a year as talks between Baghdad and the KRG on resuming exports have stalled.

Baghdad deems production-sharing agreements between the Kurds and foreign companies using the KRG's pipeline illegal.

The federal government in Baghdad will require oil companies to negotiate with it to sell their oil via the revived pipeline to Türkiye, potentially angering the Kurds who rely on almost entirely on oil revenue, according to Reuters.

Exports via the 960 km (600 mile) pipeline were halted in 2014 after repeated attacks by ISIS militants. It once handled about 0.5% of global supply.

"Repair works are ongoing and a major crude pumping station with storage facilities has been completed. The pipeline is likely to be operational and ready to restart flows by the end of this month," Basim Mohammed, Iraqi deputy oil minister for upstream affairs, told Reuters.

Repairing damaged sections inside Iraq and completing one essential pumping station will be the first stage of operations to bring the pipeline back to full capacity, he said.

The KRG's pipeline was halted on March 25, 2023, after an arbitration court ruled it violated provisions of a 1973 treaty by facilitating oil exports from the semi-autonomous Kurdish region without Baghdad's consent.

Negotiations to restart it have faltered as Türkiye, the KRG and the federal government have made conflicting demands.

Two Iraqi oil officials and a government energy adviser, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Baghdad had balked at a Kurdish demand that the federal government pay a $6 per barrel transit fee to Russian oil firm Rosneft, which partly owns the pipeline.

"Iraqi oil ministry officials told the Kurdish negotiating team they consider the agreement between KRG and Rosneft illegal and a violation of valid Iraqi laws," said Kurdistan region-based energy adviser Bahjat Ahmed who was briefed about the talks.



Markets Wary as Trump Returns to the White House 

US President Donald Trump reviews the troops in Emancipation Hall during inauguration ceremonies at the US Capitol in Washington, on January 20, 2025. (AFP)
US President Donald Trump reviews the troops in Emancipation Hall during inauguration ceremonies at the US Capitol in Washington, on January 20, 2025. (AFP)
TT

Markets Wary as Trump Returns to the White House 

US President Donald Trump reviews the troops in Emancipation Hall during inauguration ceremonies at the US Capitol in Washington, on January 20, 2025. (AFP)
US President Donald Trump reviews the troops in Emancipation Hall during inauguration ceremonies at the US Capitol in Washington, on January 20, 2025. (AFP)

Financial markets swayed and wobbled at the beginning of Donald Trump's second US presidency after he made a softer start on China than many had anticipated, but then signaled punitive tariffs on North American neighbors within hours.

A wave of relief that swept across markets - as his speech and slew of executive orders imposed no new trade levies - was stopped in its tracks when Trump told reporters in the White House's Oval Office that he was thinking about 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada from Feb. 1.

The dollar, which had slipped, reversed course to hit five-year highs on its Canadian counterpart.

Hong Kong shares rose, battery stocks fell and the trading day was a neat reminder of both the rollercoaster that markets rode through Trump's first term and how, this time, investors feel more sanguine about the risks.

"Prepared remarks and what's off the cuff - both of them will move markets," said Tai Hui, chief market strategist in Asia at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, at a briefing in Singapore.

"Rather than basing all our investment decisions on what is announced...we just have to maybe take a step back and just absorb," he said.

"What was said on the campaign trail...and what is now being studied and researched and implemented there's still going to be a significant gap."

Trump had vowed to immediately impose steep tariffs of 10% to 20% on global imports into the US and 60% on goods from China, but a memo he issued after taking office only directed agencies to research and investigate the US trade deficits.

The dollar hit a five-year high of 1.452 Canadian dollars before steadying around C$1.44. It rose but stayed below last month's highs on the Mexican peso.

Treasuries rallied and S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%. European futures slipped 0.4%. Chinese stocks and the yuan tentatively rose.

"Tariffs are necessarily an overhang," said Vis Nayar, chief investment officer at Eastspring Investments in Singapore.

"I think we should expect volatility. But there is hope that there is some pragmatism. We have to assume that he's not going to do anything that just brings up US inflation without paying attention to that."

PRO-BUSINESS, BUT AT A COST

Trump enters office with an ambitious agenda spanning trade, immigration, tax cuts and deregulation which has the potential to boost US corporate profits but which could also reignite inflation and put upward pressure on interest rates.

In his inaugural speech, Trump pledged to bolster the US oil, gas and power industries and to crack down on immigration.

He pardoned supporters who attacked the Capitol four years ago. He also withdrew from the Paris climate pact and declared an emergency to clear the way for more oil and gas production.

Battery stocks in South Korea fell after he revoked an order that had sought to ensure half of new cars sold in the US after 2030 were electric vehicles. A US holiday on Monday means that US equities will react on Tuesday.

"Most of what he has been talking about will help spur growth and corporate profits," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital.

"But many will come at a cost. We will need to see a lot of earnings growth to make up for even a minor increase in interest rates that could follow higher tariffs" and other proposals, he said.

Cryptocurrency markets, which have soared in the run-up to Trump taking office, came under pressure as the lack of any instant crypto-friendly announcements stirred some disappointment. Bitcoin, which came close to $110,000 on Monday was trading around the $100,000 mark and a Trump-branded memecoin that hit almost $75 on the weekend fell to $36.

During the first year of Trump's first administration, the S&P 500 rose 19.4%, following a 5% rally in his first 100 days.

For the entirety of his first term, the S&P 500 rose nearly 68%, but saw bouts of volatility, stemming in part from a trade war Trump fought with China.

"The big question on investors' minds right now is going to be 'how' -- how will he cut costs and lower inflation and lower interest rates," said Josh Strange, president of Good Life Financial Advisors of NoVA, a financial advisory firm.