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Morgan Stanley Lifts Q3 Brent Crude Oil Forecast on Geopolitical Risk

Morgan Stanley raised its Brent crude oil price forecast for the third quarter of this year by $4 per barrel to $94. Reuters
Morgan Stanley raised its Brent crude oil price forecast for the third quarter of this year by $4 per barrel to $94. Reuters
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Morgan Stanley Lifts Q3 Brent Crude Oil Forecast on Geopolitical Risk

Morgan Stanley raised its Brent crude oil price forecast for the third quarter of this year by $4 per barrel to $94. Reuters
Morgan Stanley raised its Brent crude oil price forecast for the third quarter of this year by $4 per barrel to $94. Reuters

Morgan Stanley has raised its Brent crude oil price forecast for the third quarter of this year by $4 per barrel to $94, citing geopolitical risks.
"That the degree of geopolitical risk in key oil producing regions has increased recently seems clear and uncontroversial," the bank said in a note dated Monday.
OPEC+, a group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, last week kept its oil supply policy unchanged and pressed some countries to increase compliance with output cuts.
According to Reuters, Morgan Stanley said that with OPEC supply restraints, some downside to Russia production, and a seasonal upswing in demand ahead, it expects tightness in the second and third quarters.
Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries may have disrupted more than 15% of Russian capacity, a NATO official said earlier this month.

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Oil Edges Up on Strong US GDP Data

A pumpjack brings oil to the surface in the Monterey Shale, California, US April 29, 2013. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo
A pumpjack brings oil to the surface in the Monterey Shale, California, US April 29, 2013. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo
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Oil Edges Up on Strong US GDP Data

A pumpjack brings oil to the surface in the Monterey Shale, California, US April 29, 2013. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo
A pumpjack brings oil to the surface in the Monterey Shale, California, US April 29, 2013. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo

Oil prices were up slightly on Friday on stronger-than-expected US economic data that raised investor expectations for increasing crude oil demand from the world's largest energy consumer.

But concerns about soft economic conditions in Asia's biggest economies, China and Japan, capped gains.

Brent crude futures for September rose 7 cents to $82.44 a barrel by 0014 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude for September increased 4 cents to $78.32 per barrel, Reuters reported.

In the second quarter, the US economy grew at a faster-than-expected annualised rate of 2.8% as consumers spent more and businesses increased investments, Commerce Department data showed. Economists polled by Reuters had predicted US gross domestic product would grow by 2.0% over the period.

At the same time, inflation pressures eased, which kept intact expectations that the Federal Reserve would move forward with a September interest rate cut. Lower interest rates tend to boost economic activity, which can spur oil demand.

Still, continued signs of trouble in parts of Asia limited oil price gains.

Core consumer prices in Japan's capital were up 2.2% in July from a year earlier, data showed on Friday, raising market expectations of an interest rate hike in the near term.

But an index that strips away energy costs, seen as a better gauge of underlying price trends, rose at the slowest annual pace in nearly two years, suggesting that price hikes are moderating due to soft consumption.

China, the world's biggest crude importer, surprised markets for a second time this week by conducting an unscheduled lending operation on Thursday at steeply lower rates, suggesting authorities are trying to provide heavier monetary stimulus to prop up the economy.