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China's Q1 GDP Growth Set to Slow to 4.6%, Keeps Pressure for More Stimulus

A pedestrian walks on an overpass past car traffic in Beijing, China January 12, 2024. REUTERS/Florence Lo/File Photo
A pedestrian walks on an overpass past car traffic in Beijing, China January 12, 2024. REUTERS/Florence Lo/File Photo
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China's Q1 GDP Growth Set to Slow to 4.6%, Keeps Pressure for More Stimulus

A pedestrian walks on an overpass past car traffic in Beijing, China January 12, 2024. REUTERS/Florence Lo/File Photo
A pedestrian walks on an overpass past car traffic in Beijing, China January 12, 2024. REUTERS/Florence Lo/File Photo

China's economy likely grew 4.6% in the first quarter from a year earlier - the slowest in a year despite tentative signs of steadying, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday, maintaining pressure on policymakers to unveil more stimulus measures.

Gross domestic product (GDP) in the world's second-biggest economy is also expected to grow at a subdued 4.6% pace in 2024 year-on-year, according to the median forecast of 86 economists polled by Reuters, falling short of the official target of

The first-quarter growth forecast compares to 5.2% in the previous three months and is the lowest since the January-March quarter in 2023, underlining the strains in the economy despite stronger than expected January-February data on factory output and retail sales, as well as exports.

Analysts expected growth to pick up to 5.0% in the second quarter, but policymakers have their work cut out in trying to shore up confidence and demand.

China's economy has struggled to mount a strong and sustainable a post-COVID bounce, burdened by a protracted property downturn, mounting local government debts and weak private-sector spending.

The government has unveiled fiscal and monetary policy measures in a bid to achieve what analysts have described as an ambitious 2024 GDP growth target, noting that last year's growth rate of 5.2% was likely flattered by a comparison with a COVID-hit 2022.

"The economy has yet to recover," Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, said in a note. "The property sector is still on the decline, the risk of another fiscal cliff is on the rise, geopolitical challenges are likely to sustain, and growth might face downward pressure again over the next few months."

Fitch cut its outlook on China's sovereign credit rating to negative on Wednesday, citing risks to public finances as Beijing channels more spending towards infrastructure and high-tech manufacturing, amid a shift away from the property sector.

China's consumer inflation cooled more than expected in March, while producer price deflation persisted, suggesting policymakers may need to launch more stimulus to spur demand.

On a quarterly basis, the economy is forecast to expand 1.4% in the first quarter, quickening from 1.0% in October-December, the poll showed.

The government is due to release first quarter GDP data, along with March activity data, at 0200 GMT on April 16.

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Trump Threatens 100% Tax on European Imports if Countries Impose Tax on Digital Services

US President Donald Trump speaks at a rally to kick off the 16-day Great American State Fair as part of Washington, DC's celebration of the nation's 250th birthday, on the National Mall in Washington, DC, USA, 24 June 2026. (EPA)
US President Donald Trump speaks at a rally to kick off the 16-day Great American State Fair as part of Washington, DC's celebration of the nation's 250th birthday, on the National Mall in Washington, DC, USA, 24 June 2026. (EPA)
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Trump Threatens 100% Tax on European Imports if Countries Impose Tax on Digital Services

US President Donald Trump speaks at a rally to kick off the 16-day Great American State Fair as part of Washington, DC's celebration of the nation's 250th birthday, on the National Mall in Washington, DC, USA, 24 June 2026. (EPA)
US President Donald Trump speaks at a rally to kick off the 16-day Great American State Fair as part of Washington, DC's celebration of the nation's 250th birthday, on the National Mall in Washington, DC, USA, 24 June 2026. (EPA)

President Donald Trump on Friday threatened a 100% tax on imports from any country that imposes a tax on digital services from United States companies.

In a post on social media, Trump took aim at European countries that he said are discussing “imminent” implementation of taxes on American companies.

“Please let this statement serve to represent that any Country that imposes such a Tax will immediately be met with a 100% TARIFF on any and all Goods sent to the United States of America,” Trump wrote.

He added that the new tax would supersede any previously negotiated trade deals. Trump said the penalty would apply to any country that moves forward with such a tax, but he singled out European nations in his post.

Trump has repeatedly pushed against foreign efforts to tax or regulate American tech giants. Last year he threatened new tariffs on any country that moved to do so. A post from last August said that digital taxes and regulation “are all designed to harm, or discriminate against, American Technology.”

Business

US Goods Trade Deficit Hits 14-month High in May as Imports Surge

APM Terminals' facility at the Port of Los Angeles in California. (Reuters)
APM Terminals' facility at the Port of Los Angeles in California. (Reuters)
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US Goods Trade Deficit Hits 14-month High in May as Imports Surge

APM Terminals' facility at the Port of Los Angeles in California. (Reuters)
APM Terminals' facility at the Port of Los Angeles in California. (Reuters)

The US trade deficit in goods swelled to a 14-month high in May as businesses boosted imports, likely to avoid shortages and higher prices related to the Middle East conflict, suggesting trade remained a drag on economic growth in the second quarter.

The sharp deterioration in the goods trade deficit reported by the Commerce Department on Friday also reflected a decline in exports.

Recent business surveys have shown front-loading of orders by firms. Sponsors of the surveys attributed the behavior to the US-led war against Iran, which raised commodity prices, including for oil and fertilizers, and disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

But after the United States and Iran last week signed a preliminary peace deal, shipments through the strait have picked up, driving oil prices sharply lower. Even if supply chains returned to normal, economists warned that the trade deficit would likely remain elevated because of an artificial intelligence investment boom that is largely reliant on imports.

"The widening trade deficit is bad news for national income growth, and it suggests that net exports might drag down real GDP growth too," said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. "The AI boom had better generate a corresponding increase in services exports to offset the influx of equipment. If it doesn't, then this AI bubble is a losing proposition for the economy."

The goods trade gap increased 27.4% to $105.8 billion last month, the highest level since March 2025, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the deficit at $85.0 billion.

Imports of goods increased $10.9 billion, or 3.6% to $313.4 billion, also a 14-month high. They were driven by a 6.3% surge in imports of automotive vehicles. Imports of consumer goods soared 5.7%. Despite high inflation, mostly stemming from the Iran war, consumer spending has remained strong, thanks to large tax refunds this year and a stock market rally.

BROAD INCREASE IN IMPORTS

Imports of industrial supplies, which include petroleum, increased 4.8%. Capital goods imports rose 0.4%. They surged 41.9% on a year-on-year basis, reflecting the AI spending spree.

Imports of foods, feeds and beverages increased 4.3%, while those of other goods advanced 11.5%. Overall imports have remained high despite tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.

Goods exports dropped $11.8 billion, or 5.4%, to $207.7 billion in May. They were weighed down by a 9.2% plunge in exports of consumer goods. Industrial supplies exports tumbled 7.0%, while those of capital goods dropped 5.0%. Exports of other goods decreased 6.8%. But food, feed and beverage exports increased 3.9%. Automotive vehicle exports rose 0.5%.

"Imports are moving sharply higher and this will subtract from GDP growth this quarter," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS. "The import drag on domestic economic growth is back because factories here cannot make it here no matter how Washington economic officials try to spin it."

Trade had been a drag on gross domestic product for two straight quarters. Growth estimates for the second quarter were converging around a 2.5% annualized rate before the trade data.

The economy grew at a 2.1% annualized rate last quarter after expanding at a 0.5% pace in the October-December quarter.

Business

Gold Gains as Dollar Weakens; Still on Track for Fourth Straight Weekly Loss

British gold bars and sovereign coins on display in a London shop. (Reuters)
British gold bars and sovereign coins on display in a London shop. (Reuters)
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Gold Gains as Dollar Weakens; Still on Track for Fourth Straight Weekly Loss

British gold bars and sovereign coins on display in a London shop. (Reuters)
British gold bars and sovereign coins on display in a London shop. (Reuters)

Gold edged higher on Friday as the dollar weakened and expectations of US interest rate hikes eased slightly following inflation data, though prices were still on track for a fourth consecutive weekly decline. Spot gold was up 0.51% to $4,046.70 per ounce by 9:39 a.m. EDT (1339 GMT).

US gold futures for August delivery rose 0.35% to $4,061.40 per ounce.

The US dollar eased from recent highs after the release of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge on Thursday. The US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index surged 4.1% in the 12 months through May, matching economists' forecasts in a Reuters poll. Traders are pricing in about a 60% chance of a US rate hike in September, lower than an earlier expectation of 64%, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

Gold is seeing a modest rebound after coming under selling pressure earlier this week, said Jim Wyckoff, a market analyst at American Gold Exchange. Higher interest rates and tighter monetary policy reduce the appeal of non-yielding bullion, as they tend to boost bond yields and increase returns on interest-bearing assets. Spot gold hit more than a seven-month low earlier this week and prices were down 2.6% for the week.

TD Securities said in a note that, given gold's inverse relationship with both higher oil prices and a stronger US dollar, sustained strength in energy markets could put further downward pressure on the precious metal in the months ahead. Gold started trading at a premium in India this week for the first time in a month and a half, as a price correction lifted buying, while demand stayed subdued in China, the top consumer. Among other precious metals, spot silver rose 0.42% to $58.1109 per ounce.

Platinum gained 0.21% to $1,604.45 and palladium jumped 1.25% to $1,199.25.